John Fetterman’s party-switch calculus

Democrats need a net gain of four U.S. Senate seats in November to flip control of the chamber. This would deny Donald Trump an easy path to confirmation of his executive branch and judicial nominees during the last two years of his presidency. It would also eliminate the governing trifecta that has allowed Republicans to repeatedly deploy the budget-reconciliation process, skirting the Senate filibuster that otherwise would protect minority-party influence over legislation. So it’s a really big deal.

But a Democratic Senate flip might come with an asterisk: It’s a big, bald-headed, hoodie-wearing asterisk named John Fetterman. To call the freshman senator from Pennsylvania “erratic” is a major understatement. But he’s becoming increasingly predictable as an ally of the Trump administration, especially on hot-button questions of war and peace.

The long and controversial saga of his recovery from the 2022 stroke that nearly derailed his Senate campaign is one thing; as New York’s Ben Terris reported earlier this year, there are widely varying accounts of how he’s doing from family, friends, and staff. But his transition from being a recognizable (if quirky) Bernie-bro progressive to his present status as every Republican’s favorite Democrat has been fast and furious. He made a point of defecting from his party colleagues on a number of early, high-profile Trump Cabinet confirmation votes (supporting half of them, including, uniquely, Pam Bondi for attorney general). He voted with Trump administration initiatives more than any other Senate Democrat in 2025 (albeit just over one-fourth of the time).

But perhaps just as important, he began to regularly criticize his party using GOP-style rhetoric about alleged Democratic extremism, intolerance, and irrational hostility to Trump. His alignment with conservatives actually seemed to accelerate in 2026, when he has appeared on Fox News a remarkable 56 times. And on one very high-profile issue, the U.S. relationship with Israel, Fetterman has been bitterly estranged from much of his party, refusing to countenance any criticism of that country’s conduct or leadership and extending this intense attachment to support for the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.

Unsurprisingly, Fetterman’s repositioning has polarized his constituents by party, as this recent Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvanians indicated:

Republicans (77 - 12 percent) approve of the way Fetterman is handling his job, while Democrats (69 - 19 percent) disapprove. Among independents, 48 percent disapprove of the way Fetterman is handling his job and 44 percent approve.

Even more pointedly, 55 percent of Pennsylvania Republicans, and 57 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats, say they want Fetterman to leave the Democratic Party. And the GOP has sure put out a welcome mat: Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he and several other Republican colleagues have discussed a prospective party switch with the former progressive. And while Fetterman for many months consistently rejected that idea (at least publicly), just last week he said he might abandon his party if it became an “anti-Israeli party.” Since that characterization would be very much in the eye of the beholder, this would appear to open the door to a possible party switch.

The two obvious questions are whether that makes sense for Fetterman and how it might transpire if that’s what he wants. It is at this point hard to envision a scenario where this perceived turncoat could win renomination to the Senate as a Democrat in 2028. Just look at the above polls of Democrats. The numbers are not ambiguous at all. When Fetterman’s campaign committee announced it was conducting a joint fundraising initiative with the campaign of Pennsylvania’s Republican senator Dave McCormick, it barely raised an eyebrow. On the other hand, as Fetterman himself has pointed out, rank-and-file Republicans won’t be thrilled to embrace a Democrat whose heterodoxy has not extended to such hot-button issues as abortion or LGBTQ+ rights. He may also be aware of the Joe Lieberman precedent: In 2008, the Connecticut senator had just won reelection as an independent and then warmly endorsed the presidential candidacy of his close friend John McCain. But when McCain made it known he wanted to put Lieberman on the ticket with him, there was a huge conservative revolt over abortion and LBGTQ+ rights that ended the talk instantly. Pennsylvania Republicans may like Fetterman the Fox News Democrat, but they may like a true conservative better.

On the other hand, Fetterman could theoretically win another term in the Senate by doing what Lieberman did in Connecticut: running as an independent (which happened after Lieberman lost the Democratic primary to Ned Lamont) and counting on his GOP friends to take a dive by nominating a weak candidate and signaling that crossover votes were okay.

In any event, if only to keep his options open, the smart move for Fetterman could be to stay put until after the election but let it be known his party-caucus affiliation afterward is negotiable. If Democrats flip the Senate without Fetterman’s vote, he can stay right where he is. If Republicans maintain a majority without his vote, he can also stay or switch, depending on his future plans. But what would really put him in the catbird seat is a 51-47 Democratic Senate majority that he could either confirm by caucusing with his old party or overturn by caucusing with Republicans even if he maintains an independent identification. Given the huge stakes involved, an intense bidding war over his support would almost certainly ensue.

Fetterman’s potential leverage, of course, would depend on everyone else in the Senate staying where they are. And if the above scenario emerges and Fetterman’s peddling himself to both parties, Democrats could make a serious effort to outflank him by flipping Republican Lisa Murkowski. Like Fetterman, Murkowski often dismisses the idea of a party switch. But thanks to Alaska’s nonpartisan top-four primary-election system, she’s already functionally an independent. She has a terrible relationship with Trump, who (along with the state GOP) backed a Republican rival in 2022 and is sure to oppose her in 2028 if she runs. And as the senior senator from a state that is unusually dependent on friendly federal policies and spending, Murkowski would almost certainly entertain a Democratic offer if it was generous enough and if she could maintain her seniority.

In any event, don’t get too invested in the Senate results on Election Night. If party control is up for grabs, watch Fetterman and Murkowksi and see how high the bidding goes.