Republicans eye Arizona comeback with Hobbs-Biggs governor matchup: Primary takeaways

Arizona voters teed up a slew of competitive races Tuesday as Republicans look to take back control of the Grand Canyon State’s executive branch in November.   

Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, who’s considered the most endangered gubernatorial incumbent this cycle, will show down against Republican Rep. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), a House Freedom Caucus member backed by President Trump. 

Democrats also currently hold Arizona’s attorney general and secretary of state posts in the battleground state, where Republicans still make up most of the registered electorate.   

The GOP in Arizona is looking to regain ground in November after key losses for major offices, including governor and Senate, in recent years, while also battling political headwinds amid a tough midterm environment.  

Here are the top takeaways from Arizona’s primaries:  

GOP fights to flip Arizona governor’s mansion 

Arizona is still one of Republicans’ best gubernatorial pick-up opportunity this fall, and the party is chomping at the bit to unseat Hobbs.  

Biggs, a staunch ally of the president with support from Turning Point Action, is projected to easily defeat Republican Rep. David Schweikert and businessmen Ken Miceli and Scott Neely, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), to take on Hobbs.  

“As governor, Andy will continue to put Arizona families first while Katie Hobbs focuses on serving special interests instead of addressing affordability, increasing the supply of housing, and creating more good-paying jobs,” said Republican Governors Association President Greg Gianforte (R) in a statement.  

But flipping the seat will be an uphill battle for the GOP in a midterm environment favoring Democrats. The party has looked to Biggs as “too extreme” for the state, with Hobbs making his election denialism a central attack line in her campaign.  

“Even his own party is warning he’s too extreme for Arizona, and we’re going to ensure he’s rejected at the ballot box in November,” said Meghan Meehan-Draper, executive director of the Democratic Governors Association, in a statement. 

Biggs voted to overturn the 2020 election results as Trump baselessly claimed he won the presidential election, including the state of Arizona, against former President Biden. In October 2021, the House Republican suggested during a House hearing that “we don’t know” who won the presidential election in Arizona the previous year.  

Just last week, Hobbs posted a video to social media with text reading, “Me when Netflix makes a documentary about beating 2 election deniers back-to-back in Arizona.” 

The incumbent narrowly defeated Republican Kari Lake, who has embraced election conspiracies, for the governor’s mansion in 2022.  

Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the Arizona race toward Democrats in the weeks ahead of the primary, citing the incumbent’s fundraising advantage and her relatively strong approval ratings.  

Biggs, meanwhile, has sought to portray himself on the campaign trail as a bipartisan lawmaker, including one that worked with the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) — a figure who has become persona non grata within much of the MAGA faction but remains beloved in Arizona.  

Election denialism holds strong 

Other Republicans who have contested the 2020 election results aside from Biggs are projected to clinch their primaries for key statewide offices. 

State Rep. Alexander Kolodin (R), who was sanctioned by Arizona’s state bar over lawsuits contesting the 2020 election, also secured the GOP nod for Arizona secretary of state. He will face incumbent Adrian Fontes (D) in November. 

State Senate President Warren Petersen (R) also won the GOP nod to take on Democratic state Attorney General Kris Mayes. Petersen was involved in the chamber’s controversial audit of the 2020 state election results.  

Tuesday results come amid renewed attention on 2020 and Trump’s longstanding, baseless claims of widespread election fraud.  

The president alleged in primetime remarks last week that there are “shocking vulnerabilities in our election infrastructure” as some national Republicans fret that Trump is picking the wrong fight ahead of November.

Fontes, who ran unopposed in his Tuesday primary bid, said in a response that the state’s election officials “will continue to evaluate credible evidence whenever it is presented, but our responsibility is to follow the facts—not political rhetoric.” 

Arizona Republicans have a long history of nominating election deniers or those who have questioned past election results as their nominees: Lake, Trump’s pick for U.S. ambassador to Jamaica, ran for Arizona governor in 2022 and Senate in 2024, losing both races. Venture capitalist Blake Masters, who ran for Senate in 2022 and lost to Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), also questioned the 2020 election results.  

Rep. Abe Hamadeh (R-Ariz.) ran for Arizona attorney general in 2022 and lost but later won his congressional seat in 2024. Former state Rep. Mark Finchem (R), another election denier, lost his bid to be the state’s top elections official in 2022. 

Trump endorsements pay off  

Trump’s endorsements paid off in two House primaries that posed a test of his influence in the purple state. 

It remains to be seen how Trump’s backing will fare in the general election, particularly in battleground states like Arizona. Regardless, Trump’s picks have largely come out on top this primary cycle — including in Arizona.

In the ruby red 5^th Congressional District, former Pinal County Sherriff Mark Lamb emerged victorious in the Republican primary for the House seat left open by Biggs despite reports of a sex scandal. An attorney for Lamb has refuted these reports.

And, in the Republican primary for Schweikert’s toss-up seat in the 1^st Congressional District, Trump-backed former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely is projected to advance to the general election. 

He is set to face off against former broadcast journalist Marlene Galán-Woods or former state Rep. Amish Shah, who are running in the Democratic primary. Shah unsuccessfully ran against Schweikert in 2024.  

Shah narrowly leads Galán-Woods in DDHQ’s preliminary vote count as of early Wednesday. His win over the ex-reporter would mark a major blow to the House Democrats’ campaign arm, which backed her over Shah.  

House Democrat avoids progressive upset outside Phoenix  

Rep. Greg Stanton (D) in Arizona’s 4^th Congressional District is projected to ward off a challenge from Kai Newkirk, a progressive organizer who has identified as a democratic socialist 

Newkirk sought to use messaging popularized by progressive candidates, such as  “fighting oligarchs,” and took aim at his moderate opponent over his acceptance of corporate donations.  

Yet, the activist failed to garner widespread support among the progressive base in the Maricopa County district, even losing key endorsements from left-leaning groups such as Young Democrats of Arizona amid scrutiny over vague claims of misconduct, according to The Arizona Republic. No specific allegations have emerged against Newkirk, the outlet reported.  

The Democratic Socialists of America’s Phoenix chapter also declined to endorse Newkirk, writing in its 2026 candidate guide that his lack of support from labor unions put his candidacy at “a strategic disadvantage” and risked handing the seat to the GOP in November.  

The incumbent’s win on Tuesday comes as the Democratic Party’s left wing has dominated recent primary elections — even ousting a handful of House Democrats in Colorado and New York. Stanton, however, was able to avoid a similar fate in the solid blue district. He will face Republican Zuhdi Jasser this fall.  

Sophia Vento contributed to this report.

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