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For Republicans, election denial has been a blessing and a curse.
Since President Donald Trump attempted to overturn the 2020 election, embracing his false claims has often helped Republican candidates win primaries — only to become a liability in the general election.
Election denial is still boosting GOP primary candidates, but does it still hurt in the general election? Arizona’s gubernatorial race this November may help answer that question. Polls indicate that Republican voters are overwhelmingly poised to nominate Rep. Andy Biggs Tuesday to take on incumbent Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in a race that would include election denial as a powerful undercurrent.
While Biggs is focusing his campaign on kitchen table issues such as phasing out the state income tax and rolling back tax breaks for data centers, he cannot fully escape the shadow of Jan. 6, 2021. As a member of Congress, he was a central player in Trump’s postelection strategy, recording a message that was played at a “Stop the Steal” rally, pressuring Arizona’s Republican speaker Rusty Bowers, and giving a speech on the House floor objecting to certifying the state’s electors.
(Biggs’ only major primary opponent, Rep. David Schweikert voted against certifying Pennsylvania’s electoral votes while voting to certify Arizona’s.)
On the other side, Hobbs is running on pragmatic initiatives such as medical debt relief and assistance for first-time homebuyers. But her political identity remains tied to 2020, when as secretary of state she supervised the election, certified Joe Biden’s victory and defended the results against the “Kraken” lawsuit and the Republican-led Cyber Ninjas audit. That record likely helped propel her 2022 victory over election denier Kari Lake, and Democrats are hoping it will give her a boost once again.
Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election proved politically hazardous for Republicans on both sides of the fight.
Republicans who stood up to Trump — which in Arizona included Bowers, Gov. Doug Ducey and two Maricopa County supervisors — either lost primaries, left office or retired from politics. But many who most forcefully embraced his efforts to overturn the 2020 election also fared poorly. In 2022, prominent election deniers running for governor, secretary of state and attorney general lost their general elections, especially when running in swing states.
One study of 2022 election deniers found that they underperformed other Republican candidates in the same state by an average of 2.3 percentage points in the general election.
Many Republicans responded by changing the subject. Rather than relitigating 2020, they recast the debate around “election integrity,” promoting stricter voter ID requirements, proof-of-citizenship laws and limits on mail voting. But Trump has repeatedly pulled the party back to relitigating the 2020 election. In a 42-minute primetime address from the White House last week, he again questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election and urged Congress to tighten federal voting laws.
Arizona is where those competing political incentives collide.
It is one of the most closely contested battlegrounds, with statewide elections often decided by razor-thin margins. Trump lost Arizona by about 10,500 votes in 2020, roughly three-tenths of a percentage point. Along with Georgia and North Carolina, the state is a cornerstone of Democrats’ Sun Belt strategy while remaining a top target for Republican efforts to reshape election rules.
That leaves Republicans confronting the same political dilemma they have faced since 2020: how to reassure a Republican base that remains deeply skeptical of elections without alienating the swing voters who decide Arizona’s general elections.
Biggs hasn’t backed away from his role after the 2020 election. But like many Republicans, he has shifted his emphasis to proposals aimed at strengthening what he calls election integrity, including tighter voting rules, faster election-night results, greater transparency in election administration and protections against foreign influence.
Hobbs enters the race with only middling approval ratings, and polls suggest the contest could be close. If voters focus primarily on inflation, affordability and her record in office, Biggs could benefit. But if the race becomes another referendum on Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election, Arizona may once again demonstrate that what helps Republicans win their primaries can still cost them in November.
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