ERCOT predicts record demand as temperatures across the state rise to triple digits

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas is expecting record energy demand this week as temperatures across Texas rise to triple digits. 

Grid demand is expected to surpass the previous record by Wednesday afternoon, when San Antonio and Austin could record 100-degree readings - the first of the year for the Alamo City.

But while the grid operator is bracing for a surge in demand, it isn't calling for energy reductions or issuing emergency alerts. 

"The grid is operating under normal conditions," said Trudi Webster, ERCOT communications manager. "ERCOT will continue to keep Texans updated through our communications channels."

The "business as usual" approach is in part because of the massive amount of solar power that's been added to the grid, said Joshua Rhodes, a power grid expert at the University of Texas at Austin. 

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"The same sun that heats up the buildings that drive air conditioning loads is the same sun that makes electricity at solar panels at that time," Rhodes said. "We're pretty well situated to have that surge in demand taken care of."

The previous record of 85,508 megawatts was set in August 2023, when blistering heat had air-conditioning systems across the state running nonstop blasting out cool air. That was an increase of 10 gigawatts over the previous peak set in 2021, Rhodes said. Back then, though, less than 5% of the grid's energy came from solar power. 

Through the first half of this year, solar power accounted for more than 15% of the energy in the Texas grid, Rhodes said.

So when predicted peak demand sends usage surging to 89,897 megawatts at 4 p.m. Wednesday, the grid's available capacity is expected to exceed 122,500 megawatts, significantly more than what's needed. When the peak hits, Rhodes said, there will be about 33,000 megawatts of solar produced, providing the cushion. 

ERCOT has been predicting that a growing population and commercial expansion, especially the boom in data centers, will lead to a string of records for peak demand. 

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The grid operator earlier projected this summer's peak would range from 90,500 megawatts to 98,000 megawatts. The high end of that is enough to power 24.5 million homes. But ERCOT says it has ample supply to meet even the highest projection, which would be a 15% increase over the current record. 

While demand is expected to peak Wednesday, it is expected to remain high throughout the week. Thursday's demand is expected to top 86,600 megawatts and Friday's demand is expected to be nearly 87,000 megawatts. Energy demand is expected to recede to levels below the current record over the weekend. 

The National Weather Service office for San Antonio and Austin has issued a heat advisory for the San Antonio and Austin metro areas, with both expecting temperatures exceeding 100 degrees and excessive humidity. Houston, Corpus Christi, Brownsville, Laredo and McAllen all could see record daily highs Wednesday.   Temperatures could reach as high as 106 degrees in the Dallas-Fort Worth region Wednesday. 

"Temperatures could climb to 100 degrees or higher this week across much of Texas, with only a few exceptions in parts of the Rio Grande Valley and West Texas. Cities including Houston, Corpus Christi and San Antonio could reach the century mark for the first time this year," said Newsroom Meteorologist Mary Wasson-Triplett. "With dangerous heat building across the state, Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect through Wednesday." 

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