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Tropical Storm Bertha is strengthening near the US Gulf Coast and is expected to take aim at multiple states this week - including a potential direct hit on New Orleans.
The second named Atlantic storm of the 2026 hurricane season developed off the coast of Florida around 7pm ET Monday night, with forecast models warning Bertha will spiral toward Louisiana and Texas over the next day.
Tropical storm warnings have already been issued along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, with meteorologists predicting that Bertha will bring dangerous flooding, high winds and potentially hazardous surf to millions.
Up to eight inches of rain and sustained winds of 40 to 60mph are expected to impact the entire Gulf region, including communities in the Florida Panhandle and major cities such as Mobile, New Orleans and Houston.
Forecasters with AccuWeather believe the tropical storm could make landfall as soon as Wednesday night, likely scoring a direct hit near the eastern Orleans Parish, which includes New Orleans East, the Lower Ninth Ward and neighborhoods closer to Lake Pontchartrain and the Mississippi River’s eastern stretches.
Currently, Bertha's exact path is uncertain, with potential tracks showing it may stay at sea longer, resulting in a stronger storm.
Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in a statement: 'A "hug-the-coast" scenario would keep overall winds weaker, however, heavy to flooding rainfall would increase along the central Gulf Coast before spreading inland as the storm loses wind intensity.'
The AccuWeather team added that storm surges, where sea levels rise sharply, could reach as high as three feet for a stretch of more than 400 miles from Florida to western Louisiana.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said: 'A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.'
Officials added that the risk for boaters and those living along the coast could be severe this week, with Bertha capable of capsizing and damaging vessels as it strengthens and moves west.
As of 9am ET Tuesday morning, Tropical Storm Bertha had grown to carry sustained winds of 50mph and was just south of Florida's Panama City.
Spaghetti models for Bertha show the storm twisting toward the northwest over the next day, moving closer to the Gulf Coast and spinning directly into Louisiana's Black Bay.
A spaghetti model shows the different possible paths a tropical storm or hurricane might take, based on predictions from multiple weather computer programs.
Each line represents one model's guess about where the storm could go. If the lines are close together, it means most models agree on the path, and the prediction is more certain.
Meteorologists noted that the Gulf may be spared a severe impact of the storm thanks to extreme wind shear blowing south from the northern US, which is slamming into Bertha and pushing thunderstorms away from the shore.
However, these winds may also push Bertha farther south, giving the relatively weak tropical storm a chance to strengthen into a bigger storm by using the warm waters of the Gulf as fuel.
'That would likely allow the storm to strengthen much more because its center would remain over the warm waters of the open Gulf for a longer period,' DaSilva added in a statement.
'Strengthening to perhaps a high-end tropical storm or hurricane would be possible in this case.'
This potential storm path would likely take Bertha toward the Texas coast, putting several communities which recently dealt with deadly flash floods in danger yet again.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Breanna Grill added: 'The Texas Hill Country may be especially vulnerable to downpours due to saturated ground and infrastructure damaged by the catastrophic flooding last week.'
One year ago, the Texas Hill Country was devastated by a Fourth of July flood which killed over 130 people, including many young children at a local summer camp.
The National Weather Service has warned that flash flooding is expected wherever Bertha strikes this week, particularly in urban areas.
Flash flooding is a sudden, rapid flooding that happens within a few minutes to a few hours during heavy rain.
According to the NWS, it often occurs when water rises quickly in low-lying areas, streams, or in cities where it cannot drain away fast enough.\
This often catches people by surprise with little or no warning to get to safety. Forecasters have warned that this makes flash flooding one of the most dangerous types of flooding.
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