Could bus routes link New Braunfels to San Antonio, San Marcos and Seguin?

Imagine stepping on a public bus in San Antonio to take you to New Braunfels for a day of tubing in the Comal River - and after you're done, getting back on the bus to go home.

A study from the Alamo Area Metropolitan Planning Organization, or AAMPO - a regional agency that determines which transportation projects can receive state and federal infrastructure funds - offers some ideas for how to make that happen.

The New Braunfels Transit Connections Study recommends establishing five bus routes taking commuters back and forth between New Braunfels and five destinations: San Antonio's Northwest Side; the Stone Oak master-planned community on the far North Side; the city of Live Oak; the city of Seguin; and the city of San Marcos.

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Referring to itself as a "guiding document" that the city of New Braunfels could use if it decides to pursue such a system, the study doesn't offer specifics as to how much the service would cost and when it could be implemented. 

The study, conducted by the engineering consultant AECOM, was commissioner after New Braunfels' rapid population growth led the Federal Transit Administration to designate it a "small urbanized area" distinct from the greater San Antonio region.

That opened the door for funding from the Federal Trade Administration. The city has since used $1.1 million in federal funds to create its first locally-run transit system, a ridehailing service known as Ride the Rio.

The study emphasizes that New Braunfels is experiencing increasing regional travel demand due to its population and employment growth. Between 2010 and 2020, the city's population swelled from 59,139 to 90,382, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. By 2023, the population had grown to 110,961.

If the study's recommendations became reality, it would mark a big leap forward for intercity transportation along the Interstate 35 corridor. Leaders in San Antonio, Austin and the communities in between continue to push for increased passenger rail service, yet so far, their efforts have come to naught.

Here are some key takeaways from the study:

Where would the routes go?

Four of the routes would begin at the Walnut Square shopping center alongside Interstate 35 in New Braunfels, about a mile south of the city's downtown. Located there, the bus stop could potentially be linked to the Great Springs Project, a planned 100-mile network of walking trails linking San Antonio and Austin, the study notes.

Here are the details of those routes:

• A 33-mile San Antonio route would end at VIA Metropolitan Transit's Crossroads Park & Ride, by the crossing of Loop 410 and Interstate 10. It would include stops at San Antonio International Airport and two of VIA's other transit hubs: the Randolph Transit Center and the North Star Transit Center.
• A 27-mile Stone Oak route would end at Methodist Stone Oak Hospital. The route would include a stop at the crossing of Sonterra Boulevard and Hardy Oak Boulevard, and at a Best Western hotel at the crossing of Loop 1604 and U.S. 281; in both places, it would link with VIA bus routes.
• A 22-mile Live Oak route would end at VIA's Randolph Transit Center near the crossing of Interstate 35 and Loop 410 on the Northeast Side. The route would include a stop at Northeast Methodist Hospital.
• A 14-mile Seguin route would end at Texas Lutheran University.

The fifth route, running 17 miles between New Braunfels and San Marcos, would begin at the Town Center at Creekside retail development and end at Texas State University. The route would include stops at San Marcos Premium Outlets and near San Marcos's Amtrak station, which also serves as the station for a route of the Capital Area Rural Transportation System - a rural transit agency commonly known as CARTS - running to Austin.

The study notes that the San Antonio route would also link with VIA's Green Line, a 10-mile rapid bus route which the transit agency is building between San Antonio International Airport and the area around Mission Concepción. VIA expects to complete the Green Line in spring 2028.

The study suggests that park-and-ride facilities could be established at the Walnut Shopping Center as well as the Town Center at Creekside retail center in New Braunfels.

When would the routes run?

On all five routes, the buses would arrive every half hour during peak times, and hourly at other times. More information on the time tables can be found in the study, posted on AAMPO's website.

The San Antonio, Stone Oak and Seguin routes would operate only on weekdays, between 6 a.m. and 7 p.m. The Live Oak route would also be only for weekdays, between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m.

The San Marcos route would run between 6:30 a.m. and 7:30 p.m. on weekdays, and between 11 a.m. and 7 p.m. on weekends.

The study recommends that the schedules for the routes going into San Antonio be coordinated with VIA to make it easier for riders to transfer between the two systems.

How many people would ride it?

No one can say, of course, how many people would ride a transit system that does not yet exist, yet the study notes that on an average Thursday, 13,303 trips are made between New Braunfels and San Antonio; 7,174 between New Braunfels and Live Oak; 6,285 between New Braunfels and Seguin; and 8,388 between New Braunfels and San Marcos.

The study estimated that about one to two percent of those ridership amounts could represent the ridership of the new transit service, calling it a "conservative" assumption. So for the Live Oak route, with its 7,174 daily trips, that would mean roughly 72 to 144 daily riders.

The study collected those ridership figures from Replica, a company that analyzes anonymous mobile data to estimate traffic patterns.

The study also presented a 43-mile route that would run from New Braunfels to the University of Texas at San Antonio, yet it wasn't included in the five recommended corridors.

On an average Thursday, only 1,026 trips are made along that route, according to the study.

When and how might this happen?

It's unclear when this proposed service might become a reality. While stakeholders in New Braunfels provided input for the study, including city staff, the New Braunfels City Council has not yet taken any action on establishing an intercity transit system.

The study does not say who would fund or operate the service. However, it does recommend establishing a "local funding strategy," including by identifying an annual cost and finding external funding sources, such as the Federal Transit Administration and the state of Texas.

Another step in forming a funding strategy would be to calculate the required "local match" - in other words, how much a municipality such as the city of New Braunfels would have to pay to secure federal funding.

The $481 million Green Line serves as an example of how a transit project can be funded with a combination of federal and local dollars. A $268 million federal grant is supplying most of the funding, while VIA is contributing $54.1 million, and the Advanced Transportation District - a taxing entity that has the same board as VIA - another $153.7 million.

The study also recommends that the city of New Braunfels reach out to potential partners for establishing the transit system, including Texas State, VIA, and the city governments of San Antonio, Live Oak, San Marcos and Seguin.

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