In the summer of 2022, the Ottawa Senators traded Filip Gustavsson to the Minnesota Wild for Cam Talbot, a move that, in hindsight, looks horrendous for then-general manager Pierre Dorion. The Senators placed seventh in the Atlantic with a 33-42-7 record and had four goaltenders appear for the team: Anton Forsberg, Matt Murray, Mads Søgaard, and Filip Gustavsson.
To put it bluntly, Gustavsson had a tough season, finishing with a 5-12-1 record and a .892 save percentage. At this point, Gustavsson was tabbed as the goalie of the future, as the team had protected him over Joey Daccord in the previous season's expansion draft for the Seattle Kraken. Gustavsson’s struggles led to the trade for Talbot, as the Senators were hoping to turn a corner with their roster. The rationale behind the Talbot trade made sense at the time. He had a 32-12-4 record with a .911 save percentage in 2021–22.
The team also traded starter Matt Murray that same offseason to the Toronto Maple Leafs, with Murray being the goalie Dorion had previously traded for and signed. It wasn’t a fit, and the team pivoted to deploying the tandem of Anton Forsberg and Cam Talbot in 2022–23. Talbot had a disastrous season for the Senators, finishing the year with a .898 save percentage and being outshined by backup Forsberg. Meanwhile, Filip Gustavsson completely turned his career around with the Wild, posting a .931 save percentage. So, what if the Senators had held onto Gustavsson?
The Senators' 2022–23 season featured career highs for multiple players, including Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk, and Drake Batherson. The team also added newcomers Claude Giroux and Alex DeBrincat, who were major contributors. Jake Sanderson was also in his rookie season and was an instant defensive contributor. The Senators finished six points out of a playoff spot and were marred by inconsistent goaltending from starter Talbot. A perfect example of Talbot’s struggles was a game against the Philadelphia Flyers in March 2023. The Flyers were able to force overtime against the Senators despite recording only 11 shots on goal and scoring four times, especially with it being 4-1 in the third period. The Senators very rarely felt comfortable with Talbot in net, and it showed.
If Gustavsson had still been on the roster, it would be hard to expect the same results he found in Minnesota. However, it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility that he could have taken another step in his development, much like the team did, and put up a .905–.910 save percentage over a 30-game span. Getting those key starts from him would have translated into at least three to five more wins and created a very realistic possibility that the Senators would have made the playoffs.
Even more importantly, it wouldn’t have led to several subsequent moves that the Senators needed to make to plug the holes created by the trade. The Senators made two significant moves to bring in a starting goaltender in the following years, the first being the signing of Jonas Korpisalo to a four-year contract. Korpisalo’s tenure with the Sens was even worse than Talbot’s, as he posted an .890 save percentage in 55 games. The following summer, Korpisalo was traded to the Boston Bruins for current Senators goaltender Linus Ullmark in a tidy bit of business by new general manager Steve Staios.
In this alternate reality, Ullmark never plays for the Senators because Korpisalo never does either. Korpisalo’s goaltending led to many lost games because of goals against in the first few minutes, even earning him the nickname "Four-pisalo." Instead, the Senators would have successfully developed a goaltender into a starter, received more quality starts from Gustavsson, and made the playoffs in four consecutive seasons.
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This article was originally published on senshot.com as What if the Ottawa Senators had never traded Filip Gustavsson?.