Tropical Storm Bertha to make likely Louisiana landfall before Texas

Tropical Storm Bertha is expected to make a Louisiana landfall later this week-possibly Wednesday-before a more disorganized system impacts the Texas Gulf Coast on Friday and Saturday.

If that turns out to be true, the biggest impact for Texas could turn out to be low levels of rain from one to four inches.

In the 4 a.m. update, the forecast pushed the storm a little farther north, exactly the opposite of what happened in the 10 p.m. update. If Bertha crosses Louisiana, that would sap it of strength. If it moves farther south and misses Louisiana, Texas could get a stronger storm.

Meteorologists have consistently said that multiple things are impacting this storm which makes it hard to predict:

• Wind shear due to El Niño and dry air are in play and could weaken Bertha or fight rapid intensification
• If the high pressure system over the southwest U.S. that is keeping much of Texas hot moves more to the east, it could act like a steering wheel on Bertha and push the storm farther south
• A landfall significantly weakens a storm, but the current brush by Louisiana is so tight of a forecast that even a miss of a few dozen miles could make a big difference in the strength of this storm and its duration as a tropical storm

Texas still likely to receive rain from Tropical Storm Bertha

If Bertha heads to Texas, it will most likely do so as a tropical depression or weaker. That could mean rain for portions of the Texas coast. The 4 a.m. update downgraded that rain chance and mostly erased predicted rainfall south of Victoria. Houston would still get potentially two inches of rain.

The rain might not be a bad thing. On Tuesday, highs for much of the Texas Gulf Coast are expected to be in the high 90s with inland areas seeing highs close to 100 degrees. A heat advisory is in effect for south central and southeast Texas as heat index values could hit 110 degrees.

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