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On June 23, following their series loss to the Colorado Rockies, the Boston Red Sox had just a 9.4 percent chance to make the playoffs (per FanGraphs).
Things looked grim for Boston after its underwhelming offense was the story of its early season performance, overshadowing even its excellent defense and All-Star-caliber pitching. The Sox seemed like guaranteed trade deadline sellers in a highly contentious American League, to the point that star pitcher Sonny Gray said on June 21 that he's "open for a conversation" about waiving his no trade clause (subscription required).
Not even a month later, the Red Sox's playoff chances have jumped to 59.3 percent. They've won 18 of their last 20 games, including 13 straight. Gray's egregious All-Star snub hasn't stopped his utter dominance — he hasn't allowed more than one run since Boston's hot streak began and he has a 1.50 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 18 innings since July began.
Just as swiftly as the Red Sox's performance has changed, Gray has changed his tune on the team's outlook. He seemingly no longer sees himself going anywhere before the August 3 trade deadline.
"We weren’t a good team, and that was a fact. But we’ve always had it in us and we are a good team. At the same time, you can’t get too high and you can’t get too low in this game," Gray said after his July 19 outing against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Sonny Gray's change in tune is top indicator of Red Sox's belief in themselves after hot streak
The Red Sox went down early in their series finale against Tampa after Victor Mesa Jr. hit an inside-the-park home run. Gray also didn't have his best command, which caused him to allow a season-high four walks to Rays hitters. But after the game, Gray said he believed his teammates had his back — knowing his offense could help him get back in the game helped him keep his competitive edge despite his struggles.
Gray's belief (and the rest of his team's) shows just how far the Red Sox have come in a month. In early June, the Red Sox hadn't won more than three games in a row. They hadn't come back from a three-run deficit, almost like they stopped trusting themselves when things started going badly.
Finally, Boston sees its abilities. The Red Sox are tied for the 27th-lowest home run total on the season with 94, but they've hit 31 homers in the last month, the 12th-most in that span. Boston has taken 298 walks this year, 26th in the league, but its taken 85 over the last month, the eighth-best figure over that time. Many of the Sox's bad offensive habits have been slashed and ticks in the win column have taken their place.
There are many indications of the Red Sox's torrid streak in the numbers: their record and their playoff chances are the most obvious examples. But Gray's pivot shows the difference exceedingly well. A month ago, he was a veteran looking for his chance at the playoffs, however it would come. Now, he believes in the team he's with, and the Red Sox seemingly believe in themselves enough to play competitive baseball.
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This article was originally published on bosoxinjection.com as Sonny Gray's comments on no-trade clause put Red Sox’s otherworldly rebound into perspective.
