Predicting who the Cardinals trade and who they keep at the deadline

The trade deadline is exactly two weeks away, and the Cardinals have some decisions to make. Yesterday's collapse from ahead 7-0 against the Diamondbacks proved that this is a team that should only be selling. But to what degree they sell is unknown. When they added Dustin May and Ryne Stanek, the idea was that they would both be trade chips at the deadline, but it's not so simple now.

In a perfect world, it would be much easier to discern, but that's rarely how the trade deadline works. The Cardinals have a couple of other interesting trade chips as well that have emerged, and it will be interesting to see how Chaim Bloom will attack this year's deadline.

In this piece, I will go over my predictions for the trade deadline on who will stay and who will ultimately go.

Riley O'Brien and JoJo Romero will be traded

After May's blowup outing against the Diamondbacks on Saturday and Stanek's struggles on Sunday, the Cardinals now have a clear top trade chip that has a ton of value. Riley O'Brien has three years of team control left after 2026, and he has saved 25 games this season. He was also just named an All-Star.

For these reasons, he is now the Cardinals top trade chip, and I believe that his years of control will increase his value some. He's also throwing his changeup a lot more frequently and effectively, so that should also help.

Now, this is not to say the Cardinals are going to get what the A's got for Mason Miller last year, but I do think there's a lot of value in O'Brien's arm. He also has a 3.35 ERA on the season. Not too shabby.

JoJo Romero is an impending free agent that is only making $4.26 million this year. He also has a 3.35 ERA in his 44 appearances. Unfortunately, appendicitis put him on the injured list, so that may hurt his value a bit. That also might mean he has thrown his last few innings as a member of the Cardinals' bullpen.

I think with so many buyers, a team will be willing to overpay just a little for Romero as a rental piece and give the Cardinals a decent return. While it may be harder to sell high because of his injury, teams at least know it's not arm-related and that he should be back to full strength soon. But I do think that's a piece the Cardinals will ultimately trade away this summer.

Lars Nootbaar, Dustin May and Ryne Stanek stay

To be clear, I am actually in favor of the Cardinals trading both May and Stanek. But with their struggles recently, I just don't think the Cardinals are going to get a whole lot for them. I don't see a lot of teams being super interested in Stanek, and while May has struggled, he still is at least a serviceable arm. The Cardinals' weakness is starting pitching, and if you can't get anything good for May, I think it's probably best to keep him so they have enough depth to get through the rest of the season and possibly get a wild card spot.

I think by trading O'Brien and Romero, they could get some younger starting pitching that is major league ready or at least close. Having May to go along with that can't hurt.

I've seen a lot of people talk about Lars Nootbaar as a trade chip, and I'm just going to be blunt and say that I think trading him is a terrible idea. I know there's the argument that it would clear a spot for Joshua Baez, but I think the best course of action if you want Baez on the roster is to send Nathan Church down to Memphis, because I don't think it's any secret that he has really struggled lately at the plate.

Nootbaar could then be moved to center field while Baez patrols left. I also think it's important to note that a young clubhouse such as this one needs a veteran leader, but also somebody that can keep them loose. Nootbaar is that guy, so I'm more in favor of negotiating an extension with him than trading him.

I'm afraid the Cardinals are stuck with Stanek for now, so there's not much they can do there. I think teams will definitely have interest in May and Nootbaar, but again, my hunch is that May's value has taken a hit lately, and I don't think cutting ties with Nootbaar is a good idea. And besides, he has been productive since his return. May too is valuable because of his veteran experience.

So that's what I think is going to happen at the deadline. I could very well be way off, as I have been in the past, but it will be interesting to see what Bloom is thinking.

Today's best reads

• Dark horse Cardinals trade candidate could become deadline's most sought-after piece
• Riley O'Brien can't let horrible All-Star Game accident define Cardinals' second half
• 3 Cardinals hot takes headed into the second half
• The Cardinals pitching staff has more innings to cover in the second half than it appears
• Did Jordan Walker just change the Cardinals' trade deadline plans?

This article was originally published on redbirdrants.com as Predicting who the Cardinals trade and who they keep at the deadline.