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A newly released University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll suggests the early Republican race for the 2028 presidential nomination may be tightening, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio posting significant gains while Vice President JD Vance’s once-commanding lead has narrowed.
The survey found Vance still leading the GOP field in New Hampshire, but Rubio has surged into a much stronger second-place position, trimming what had previously been a large double-digit advantage. The results seemingly indicate that Republican voters are beginning to take a closer look at multiple potential successors to President Donald Trump as the next White House contest slowly comes into focus.
Rubio’s rise marks one of the biggest shifts from earlier polling, where Vance consistently enjoyed a commanding lead over the rest of the Republican field. The latest numbers suggest Rubio’s growing national profile and prominent role in the Trump administration may be resonating with Granite State voters. While Vance remains the favorite, the shrinking margin could signal a more competitive Republican primary if both men ultimately decide to run.
No candidate has formally announced their candidacy.
What To Know
According to the poll, Vance has 36 percent of the potential vote compared to Rubio’s 26 percent. Eight percent would vote for either Kentucky Senator Rand Paul or former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, 6 percent would pick Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, 4 percent would vote for former Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and 2 percent chose Louisiana Senator John Kennedy. Other candidates landed less than 2 percent in the poll.
An earlier survey in February by the pollster showed Vance landed 53 percent compared to Rubio’s 7 percent. In a poll taken in October of last year, Vance had 51 percent compared to Rubio’s 5 percent.
Grant Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek via email on Wednesday, “Rubio’s surge doesn’t surprise me. He has been more in the news lately, given the U.S. international posture, and he has managed to sound reasonable and grounded, in contrast to the defense secretary, for instance.”
Reeher later added, “Vance will be perceived as the more Trump-like candidate, given his proximity to Trump, and some of his rhetoric. If they run a full primary, and Trump doesn’t put his thumb—or fist, rather—on the scale, I would expect Rubio to prevail. He will tap some of the buyer’s remorse over Trump, which is evident in some of the polling, and among the Party’s elite. And he is also the more strategic candidate in the general election—he could dampen some of the deep resentment toward Trump that Vance would activate.”
On the Democratic side, the poll shows Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leading the field, highlighting a potential emerging divide between the party’s progressive and moderate wings. Both candidates outpaced other potential Democratic contenders in the early survey, underscoring their continued national visibility despite neither having formally launched a presidential campaign. With nearly two years before the first presidential primaries, the Democratic race remains highly fluid.
Wednesday’s poll shows that Ocasio-Cortez has 22 percent compared to Buttigieg’s 21 percent. Arizona Senator Mark Kelly landed 9 percent, California Governor Gavin Newsom has 8 percent, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has 6 percent, and former Vice President Kamala Harris has 5 percent. No other candidate obtained 5 percent or more in the poll.
The poll surveyed 648 likely 2028 Democratic presidential primary voters with a margin of error of 3.8 percent and 579
likely 2028 Republican presidential primary voters with a margin of error of 4.1 percent from July 15 to July 20, 2026, the poll says.
The findings also stand in contrast to earlier national surveys this year that showed Vance holding a double-digit advantage over other prospective Republican candidates.
While national polling has previously placed the vice president comfortably ahead, New Hampshire voters appear to be giving Rubio fresh momentum as speculation surrounding the 2028 race intensifies. Political observers caution that early-state polls remain snapshots rather than predictions, but the latest survey shows that the Republican nomination contest may be becoming more competitive.
What Other Polls Show
A Big Data Poll last month found Vance leading prospective Republican contenders with 35.4 percent support, more than double that of Rubio, who finished second with 16.5 percent. On the Democratic side, Harris led the field with 29.1 percent, ahead of Newsom with 15 percent.
The poll was taken from June 26 to June 28, 2026, among 1,261 registered Republican voters and has a 1.8 percent margin of error.
A Zogby Analytics poll released this month shows Vance leading Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom in hypothetical 2028 presidential matchups among likely U.S. voters. Vance leads Ocasio-Cortez with 45 percent compared to 37.6 percent in a potential matchup and leads Newsom with 45.1 percent compared to 38.1 percent.
The poll surveyed 1,003 likely voters from July 1 to July 4, 2026, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
What Has JD Vance Said About a Potential 2028 Run?
Vance has repeatedly declined to formally commit to a 2028 presidential campaign, saying his focus is on serving in the current administration rather than planning his next political move.
“Yes, after the midterms, I will eventually have to make that decision,” he told Megyn Kelly last month in part, amid a wide-ranging interview.
Speaking to CBS Sunday Morning last month alongside Second Lady Usha Vance, JD said in part, “I have no doubt that the president of the United States is going to be very supportive of anything that I ultimately decide to do.” He added, “But we really just haven’t talked about what that thing will be.”
In May when asked about Trump’s previous comments calling a possible Vance-Rubio ticket a “dream team,” Vance told Newsweek during a news conference at the White House that Americans would likely unfavorably view “someone who’s barely been in one office for a year and a half angling for a job two and a half years down the road,” adding, “There are few topics I want to talk about less.”
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Gray R. Thomas
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