Is Delta really going to fly empty planes to Saudi Arabia?

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In late 2025, Delta announced plans to launch nonstop flights between Atlanta (ATL) and Riyadh (RUH), with Delta CEO Ed Bastian recently claiming that Saudi Arabia is one of his favorite places that he has been in a very long time. The airline is partnering with Riyadh Air, but beyond that, the company is obviously chasing subsidies, given that Saudi Arabia is paying airlines to fly to Riyadh.

With this route expected to launch in roughly three months, here's an interesting question - will Delta actually move forward with this service, or will it delay the launch?

Delta flights to Riyadh are empty, empty, empty

OMAAT reader Matt points to a post by Enilria, sharing something interesting. Delta executives recently claimed that the carrier's long haul network is typically 50-60% booked 90 days before departure.

We're now approaching 90 days until the Atlanta to Riyadh route launches, so how are things looking? Of course load factors in advance of a flight aren't accessible by the public, but instead, we can only look at seat maps.

Seat maps are never a 100% accurate indicator of how full a flight is. That being said, they give you a good sense of things, especially on an airline that typically doesn't charge for seat assignments (as is the case for Delta on long haul flights, at least for the most part).

So it's entirely possible that the number of people booked is higher than the number of seats that show as occupied, but it's unlikely to be by an order of magnitude. So, how are things looking as of now? Let's ignore the October 23 inaugural flight from Atlanta to Riyadh, since there will likely be some media on there. After that (the flight doesn't operate on October 31):

• The October 24 flight shows five seats as occupied
• The October 25 flight shows one seat as occupied
• The October 26 flight shows zero seat as occupied
• The October 27 flight shows zero seat as occupied
• The October 28 flight shows two seat as occupied
• The October 29 flight shows zero seat as occupied
• The October 30 flight shows zero seat as occupied
• The November 1 flight shows zero seat as occupied

By my math, there are eight seats assigned on the first eight non-inaugural flights. That's an average of one seat per flight.

Let's assume that demand for this Riyadh route comes roaring in, and will increase by 1000% in the 90 days leading up to travel. Well, that's still not very promising, is it? 😉

Delta will delay the launch of this route… right?

Admittedly it takes time to build up demand in a new long haul market, so you don't expect a route to be profitable at first. However, there's a fine line between a flight that takes some time to build up, vs. one like this.

In all my years of being nerdy and looking at seat maps, I don't think I've ever seen a route look this empty. The operating costs on this flight will be massive (given Delta's labor costs, fuel costs, etc.), and there's no economic reality in which this won't hemorrhage money.

Admittedly there's unrest in the Middle East, but Riyadh is less impacted by this than places like Doha and Dubai, given that it's further from Iran. If anything, you'd think that Delta would be able to capture more Saudi Arabia origin and destination traffic that doesn't want to route through airports that are closer to Iran, even though they may otherwise consider connecting.

Now, the wild card here is that Saudi Arabia has the Air Connectivity Program, intended to incentivize airlines to fly to Riyadh. So Delta is no doubt looking at a massive amount of subsidies for operating this service. However, are we talking about enough subsidies to make an empty flight profitable, or will that not work? If it does, it might just be time for me launch an airline! 😉

Bottom line

Delta is now roughly three months from launching its new route to Saudi Arabia. Delta executives claim long haul flights are typically 50-60% booked at that point. In the case of Delta's Riyadh route, I see a total of eight seats assigned across the first eight flights (excluding the inaugural). That's an average of one assigned seat per flight.

Yes, seat maps aren't a 100% accurate indicator of how full a flight is, but it does give you a pretty good sense. One would assume the airline would postpone this flight, but with subsidies, maybe it's possible to even make money flying empty planes to Riyadh, as long as Saudi Arabia is footing the bill.

What's your bet on Delta launching Riyadh flights, vs. postponing the service?