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The same morning the Federal Aviation Administration handed Boeing back the authority to certify its own aircraft as airworthy — a power the regulator stripped seven years ago following two fatal crashes — Dublin-based SMBC Aviation Capital walked onto the Farnborough International Airshow 2026 floor and ordered 100 Boeing 737 MAX jets, including 60 of the largest variant the FAA has not yet certified. That is not coincidence. It is a data point.
The deal — split between 60 of the stretched 737 MAX 10 and 40 of the workhorse 737 MAX 8 — is the single largest 737 MAX 10 order ever placed by any leasing company. With this commitment, SMBC's owned, managed, and committed 737 MAX portfolio climbs to 450 aircraft.
Separately, the FAA announced that Boeing will resume issuing airworthiness certificates for newly built 737 MAX and 787 Dreamliner aircraft effective today — a milestone that marks the most significant formal restoration of Boeing's regulatory standing since the grounding era ended. The authority was stripped for the MAX after the 2019 crashes and for the 787 in 2022 following manufacturing quality lapses.
Together, the two events on Farnborough's opening morning constitute the clearest single-day signal yet that Boeing's commercial recovery has moved from aspiration to execution.
SMBC's First MAX 10 Bet — and What It Signals
SMBC Aviation Capital services a fleet of roughly 1,700 aircraft with more than 170 airlines globally. Organizations that size do not place 60-aircraft commitments for jets that lack a Federal Aviation Administration type certificate unless their internal analysis concludes delivery is imminent. Lessors only order aircraft they have placement visibility for — they need to sign lease agreements with airline customers, and airline customers need to know when a jet will actually arrive and enter service. SMBC's commitment is, in that sense, a market-derived certification confidence interval.
The reason that matters: the Boeing 737 MAX 10 completed its first flight in June 2021 and has been in an extended certification campaign ever since. As of last week's pre-Farnborough technical briefing, Boeing VP of 737 Development Chris Payne said the company had completed 98% of the MAX 10's certification flight-test program, with two planned tests remaining — both expected to be finished this quarter. Payne's description of the anti-ice system certification status: "We're just in the last throes of getting certified."
Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary said in March 2026 that Boeing expects MAX 10 certification in the third quarter of this year, with first Ryanair deliveries in spring 2027. FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford stated in April 2026 that the agency had not identified any issues that would prevent certification of both the MAX 7 and MAX 10 before year-end.
SMBC CEO Peter Barrett framed the commitment in terms of what his airline customers are asking for. "Our partnership with Boeing spans over two decades and this order reflects market dynamics as our airline and investor customers look to upgauge to the 737-10," Barrett said in a statement. "This order will support their growth ambitions well into the next decade and reflects our strong confidence in the Boeing 737 MAX and sustained demand for fuel-efficient, technologically advanced narrowbody aircraft."
Stephanie Pope, president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, called it a continuation of a long-standing relationship. "This commitment, including SMBC's first 737-10 order, reflects the strong demand we are seeing for the 737 MAX family's efficiency, reliability and versatility," Pope said.
Why SMBC's Bet Matters More Than the Number
Lessors now account for more than 1,450 737 MAX orders, representing approximately 20% of the entire MAX backlog. That structural role is critical to understanding why this order is analytically significant beyond its headline count. When a major lessor places a triple-digit commitment for an uncertified variant, it is effectively anchoring Boeing's production line years into the future — guaranteeing that a certified MAX 10 will have immediate customers and enabling Boeing to invest in ramping the production infrastructure that certification alone cannot justify.
This dynamic has grown more acute because both Boeing and Airbus carry backlogs stretching well into the next decade. Airlines that cannot secure manufacturer delivery slots are increasingly leasing rather than purchasing directly, which means a lessor with 60 certified MAX 10s in its pipeline holds significant placement power.
SMBC also firmed up a separate agreement on Monday for CFM International LEAP-1A engines to power 35 Airbus A320neo-family aircraft — a reminder that even Boeing's most committed lessor partners maintain diversified portfolios and that the SMBC Boeing commitment reflects a deliberate choice to place a bet on the specific MAX 10 variant and its projected economics.
What Makes the MAX 10 Worth Betting On — and What It Cannot Do
The MAX 10's commercial appeal comes down to a specific engineering proposition. It is, at its core, a stretched version of the MAX 9: two 66-inch fuselage plug sections inserted fore and aft of the wing, with the same CFM International LEAP-1B turbofan engines and the same wing as its predecessor. The result is a 230-seat capacity in high-density configuration and a range of 3,100 nautical miles — the highest seat count available in Boeing's narrowbody family and, Boeing claims, the best per-seat economics of any single-aisle aircraft on the market.
Independent analysis is more measured. Research from Leeham Company found that the MAX 10 and the competing Airbus A321neo are at effective economic parity when configurations and specifications are normalized properly, with real-world differences in the low single-digit percentage range rather than the 5% Boeing has advertised. Where the MAX 10 holds a concrete structural advantage is on short and medium-haul, high-density routes — intra-US transcons, intra-European legs, and dense Asian corridors — where its lower acquisition price relative to the A321neo and comparable fuel burn per seat produce measurably lower cost per available seat mile for operators filling 225+ seats.
The A321neo has real advantages the MAX 10 cannot match. Airbus's variant seats up to 244 passengers in maximum-density configuration versus the MAX 10's 230-seat limit, a 14-seat gap that matters enormously to low-cost carriers that monetize volume. The A321neo's fuselage is approximately seven inches wider, which translates to 18-inch standard seat width versus the MAX 10's 17.2-inch standard. And the Airbus A321XLR — a long-range derivative — reaches 4,700 nautical miles, which the MAX 10 at 3,100nm cannot touch. Airlines choosing between the two are making a bet on route network, not just economics. A 2026 comparative analysis found that both aircraft occupy overlapping but distinct competitive positions.
The LEAP-1B engine powering the MAX family — a turbofan developed by CFM International, the joint venture between GE Aerospace and Safran — delivers approximately 14-15% fuel savings compared to its predecessor, the CFM56 that powered the 737 Next Generation. The LEAP designation stands for "Leading Edge Aviation Propulsion" and uses a composite fan with a high bypass ratio, pushing more of the total airflow around the engine core rather than through it — the primary mechanism for fuel efficiency improvement versus prior-generation engines.
The Certification Bottleneck: Turbulators and a Redesigned Cockpit Warning System
The reason Boeing needs SMBC's bet to validate rather than deliver is that the MAX 10 still does not have a Federal Aviation Administration type certificate. Understanding why requires understanding two specific engineering problems that only affected the MAX 10 and MAX 7 — not the MAX 8 and MAX 9 already in widespread service.
The first is the engine anti-ice system. The existing system in all 737 MAX variants directs hot engine bleed air into the composite inner barrel of the engine inlet cowl to prevent ice buildup during icing conditions. During development of the MAX 7 and MAX 10, engineers discovered that in prolonged icing conditions, this hot air can overheat the composite inner barrel, risking thermal damage to the nacelle structure. The MAX 8 and MAX 9 were already certified before the problem became known and are permitted to continue flying under specific operational guidelines; the two new variants cannot be certified until the system is redesigned.
Boeing's solution involves "turbulators" — Boeing VP Payne described them as "literally a washer and fastener that go through the inlet in a circumferential row around the engine." Their function is to make incoming air swirl, drawing in cooler ambient air that reduces the temperature at the critical thermal point by 93 degrees Celsius, or 200 degrees Fahrenheit. The redesign also includes replacing the forward fan case — which previously had acoustic perforations intended to reduce noise — with a solid "hard-walled" case. Counterintuitively, the hard-walled case is actually quieter than the perforated version and provides better fan-flutter margin. Additional elements include a new flow restrictor, insulation blankets around inlet ducts, circuit breakers, new wiring, a fault-redundancy pressure switch, and an integrated air systems controller for the anti-ice valve.
Boeing SVP Mike Sinnett confirmed in a pre-Farnborough briefing that engineering evaluations at GE Aerospace's Ohio test facility showed the redesign also reduces engine noise emissions and mitigates fan blade vibration — performance improvements beyond the original thermal safety objective.
The second certification requirement is a new angle-of-attack alerting system. The 2018-2019 MAX 8 crashes revealed that a single faulty external AoA sensor could trigger the MCAS pitch-down software while simultaneously generating five separate cockpit warnings, creating enough confusion that crews in both accidents failed to recover. Boeing's enhanced AoA system — mandatory for the MAX 10 and to be retrofitted fleet-wide — computes a third reference point and collapses multiple fault signals into a single cockpit message: "AoA Fault," identifying which sensor failed, left or right. It inhibits stick-shaker activation during sensor faults rather than adding warnings, and provides a cockpit switch for pilots to override the shaker. Boeing 737 deputy chief test pilot Bill Quashnock said the system has been validated for "pretty much every conceivable error" through simulation.
As of last week's briefing, Boeing had completed all required certification testing and analysis for the anti-ice redesign and submitted "almost all" of the required deliverables to the FAA. Boeing VP Payne: "We have done all of the [anti-ice] certification testing. We've done all the analysis, all the flying, all the lab testing... We're just in the last throes of getting certified."
FAA's Double Signal: Airworthiness Authority and Certification Confidence
What made Monday at Farnborough unusual is that the SMBC order arrived on the same day the FAA made its own statement about Boeing's trajectory.
Effective today, the FAA restored Boeing's authority to issue airworthiness certificates for newly built 737 MAX and 787 Dreamliner aircraft — ending a phased oversight program that had been in place for seven years for the MAX and four years for the 787. Under the restored authority, Boeing's own authorized representatives will again sign off newly completed jets as airworthy before delivery to airlines, rather than requiring FAA inspectors to perform that step.
The authority was revoked following the Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines crashes in 2018 and 2019, and separately revoked for the 787 in 2022 following recurring manufacturing quality concerns at Boeing's South Carolina facility. The restoration follows eight months of a parallel-review program in which Boeing and FAA inspectors alternated weekly responsibility for issuing the certificates. According to the FAA, data from that period showed no meaningful difference in production quality regardless of which party performed the certification.
FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford issued a statement confirming the basis for the decision: "Safety drives everything we do, and this step forward is only possible because we are confident it can be done safely." The FAA added that it will maintain close supervision of Boeing's production system through inspections, audits, and monitoring under the manufacturer's Safety Management System framework.
For Boeing, the restoration reduces friction at the delivery stage, particularly relevant as the company works to accelerate output toward 52 jets per month by early 2027.
Boeing's Production Ramp: Where the Line Actually Stands
The SMBC order does not exist in isolation from Boeing's manufacturing reality. Boeing is now producing 737 MAX jets at 47 per month — having passed the FAA's capstone quality review for that rate on May 27, 2026. That is a significant increase from the 38-jet monthly cap the FAA imposed in January 2024 following the Alaska Airlines MAX 9 door-plug blowout.
On July 6, Boeing opened a fourth 737 assembly line — known internally as the North Line — at its Everett facility in Washington state, in space previously occupied by 787 Dreamliner production. The first aircraft loaded onto that line was a 737 MAX 10 destined for WestJet. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg has stated the North Line is the mechanism for pushing output from 47 to 52 jets per month, a target the company aims to reach in early 2027.
CEO Ortberg's long-term production aspiration is 63 jets per month, contingent on supply chain capacity. The company noted that its current 737 order backlog stands at approximately 4,774 aircraft as of late 2025 — a pipeline that would take years to clear at any plausible production rate.
Boeing's Busy Day at Farnborough
The SMBC deal was the centerpiece of a strong opening morning for Boeing at the show. Philippine Airlines announced a commitment for up to 20 Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner widebody jets — 15 firm orders and five options — marking the carrier's first Boeing purchase in nearly two decades. The Manila-based carrier expects first deliveries of those 787-10s in 2031 and has not yet selected engines, opening a competition between GE Aerospace's GEnx and Rolls-Royce's Trent 1000. PAL's widebody fleet currently consists of 777-300ERs, A330s, and A350s; this marks the carrier's entry into the Dreamliner family.
Riyadh Air, the PIF-owned Saudi startup that entered revenue service just weeks ago in June 2026, exercised options for 28 additional Boeing 787 Dreamliners from its original 2023 commitment, while converting 20 of those to the larger 787-10 variant. The move brings Riyadh Air's total firm 787 order book to 67 aircraft. The Saudi carrier also separately exercised options for six additional Airbus A350-1000s, bringing its firm A350 commitment to 31 jets.
What It Means for the Market
For Boeing, the combination of the SMBC order, the Philippine Airlines commitment, the Riyadh Air expansion, and the FAA's airworthiness authority restoration constitutes the most commercially and regulatorily significant single day the company has had since the MAX crisis began. After years of reputational damage, safety investigations, production caps, and certification delays, a triple-figure narrowbody commitment from one of the leasing industry's most analytically rigorous buyers — placed on the same day regulators formally restored Boeing's self-certification standing — carries structural meaning beyond the press release totals.
For the aviation sector more broadly, the day reinforces that demand for fuel-efficient narrowbody jets remains structurally robust. Global passenger traffic is forecast to grow at around 4% annually over the next two decades. Airlines across every geography are under pressure to replace aging fleets with lower-cost-per-seat alternatives, and the MAX — whatever its history — remains central to that replacement cycle.
The real test will come when the first MAX 10 rolls off the Everett North Line with a type certificate in hand. With 98% of certification flight tests complete, two flights remaining, and the anti-ice redesign in its final documentation phase, that moment now has a plausible address on the calendar: Boeing and its airline customers say it is a matter of this quarter, not this year.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will the Boeing 737 MAX 10 be certified by the FAA?
Boeing and FAA officials have both signaled a 2026 certification timeline with increasing confidence. As of Boeing's July 16 pre-Farnborough briefing, 98% of required certification flight tests are complete, with two tests remaining and expected to be finished this quarter. Boeing VP of 737 Development Chris Payne described the anti-ice system certification as being in its "last throes." Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary has said Boeing expects certification in the third quarter of 2026, with first customer deliveries in spring 2027. FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford stated in April 2026 that no issues have been identified that would prevent certification before year-end. None of these constitute a guarantee — certification flight testing can surface unexpected issues — but the program has not been this close to the finish line since the MAX 10 first flew in June 2021. For the latest on MAX 7 and MAX 10 certification progress, Air Data News has ongoing coverage.
How does the Boeing 737 MAX 10 compare to the Airbus A321neo?
The two aircraft occupy overlapping but distinct competitive positions. The MAX 10 seats up to 230 passengers in high-density configuration; the A321neo accommodates up to 244. The A321neo's fuselage is approximately seven inches wider, providing 18-inch standard seat width versus the MAX 10's 17.2 inches — an advantage Airbus emphasizes for passenger comfort. On per-seat economics, independent analysis by Leeham Company found both aircraft are at effective parity on most routes, with the MAX 10 holding a modest fuel-burn edge (1-2%) on short-haul segments below 1,000 nautical miles. The A321neo family includes the XLR variant capable of 4,700 nautical miles, a market the MAX 10's 3,100-nautical-mile range cannot address. Airlines choosing between them are making a network bet as much as an economics calculation. Simple Flying's 2026 comparison provides a detailed breakdown.
What does SMBC Aviation Capital's order signal about Boeing's recovery?
Major aircraft lessors do not commit to uncertified jets without internal confidence that the aircraft will be delivered and placed with airline customers within their planning horizon. SMBC's 60-aircraft MAX 10 commitment — the single largest MAX 10 order ever placed by a leasing company — is effectively a market-derived verdict that Boeing's 2026 certification timeline is credible and that airline demand for the MAX 10 is real enough to fill those aircraft profitably. The simultaneous FAA airworthiness certification authority restoration, effective the same day, adds a regulatory layer to that signal: the governing safety body has now formally confirmed sufficient trust in Boeing's production quality to return self-certification responsibilities across both the 737 MAX and 787 programs. Full details are available in Boeing's official press release.
What was the technical reason the MAX 10 certification was delayed so long?
The primary technical obstacle was the engine anti-ice system. The system directs hot engine bleed air into the composite inlet cowl to prevent ice buildup, but engineers discovered that in prolonged icing conditions this could overheat and thermally damage the composite inner barrel of the nacelle — a problem that did not affect the already-certified MAX 8 and MAX 9. Boeing's solution uses "turbulators" — small circumferential fasteners around the engine's forward fan case — that cause incoming air to swirl and draw in cooler ambient air, reducing nacelle temperature at the critical point by 93°C. A secondary requirement was a new enhanced angle-of-attack alerting system mandated by Congress following the 2018-2019 crashes, which consolidates what were previously five separate cockpit fault warnings into a single clear indicator. Both systems had to be designed, tested, and their certification documentation submitted before the FAA could approve the type certificate. Full technical details are available in FlightGlobal's pre-Farnborough certification briefing.
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