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President Donald Trump‘s approval ratings remain deeply underwater in a series of recent national polls, prompting CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten to argue that no modern second-term president has been in a weaker position at this point in office.
Recent surveys from CNBC and The Washington Post show Trump posting some of the worst net approval numbers of his presidency, while broader polling averages continue to place his national approval below 40 percent.
The findings arrive as Republicans look ahead to November’s midterm elections, when control of Congress will again be at stake, and voter views on the economy, inflation and living costs are expected to play a central role.
Why It Matters
Trump entered his second term promising lower costs and economic improvements, but public dissatisfaction over prices and broader economic concerns has persisted in multiple national surveys.
Presidential approval ratings are often viewed as one of the most important indicators of the political environment heading into congressional elections. The numbers could influence the electoral outlook for both Republicans defending seats in Congress and Democrats hoping to make gains in November.
CNN’s Harry Enten Says Polls Show Historic Weakness
Speaking on CNN Tuesday, Enten argued that recent events have done little to improve Trump’s standing with voters. Looking at net approval ratings (approval minus disapproval), Enten noted that Trump’s numbers remain near record lows in both Washington Post and CNBC polling.
According to Enten, Trump’s all-time low net approval rating in Washington Post polling was minus 25 points in April. The latest survey placed him at minus 24 points, tied for the second-worst result recorded for him in that series.
Meanwhile, CNBC found Trump at a net approval rating of minus 19 points, a new low in that pollster’s data.
“When you put it together,” Enten said, “there are a lot of events in the world, but this cake, as we get closer and closer to the midterm elections, is starting to look at least a little bit baked here.”
Enten went further, arguing that an average of the CNBC and Washington Post findings shows Trump posting the weakest approval numbers of any second-term president at this stage of a presidency this century.
Using that measure, Trump stands at minus 22 points, compared with minus 20 for former President George W. Bush during the Iraq War and minus 8 for former President Barack Obama at a comparable point in his second term, Enten’s analysis found.
Washington Post Poll Shows Approval Stuck in the 30s
A Washington Post/Ipsos poll conducted July 8-13 among 2,648 U.S. adults found Trump with a 37 percent approval rating and a 61 percent disapproval rating, according to polling details published by the organizations.
The poll also found continued voter dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of key issues, including the economy, where just 33 percent approved of his performance.
The findings suggested little movement from earlier surveys despite months of major domestic and international developments.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.
CNBC Survey Finds Record-Low Economic Ratings
The CNBC All-America Economic Survey, conducted July 8-12 among 1,000 registered voters nationwide, found Trump with a 40 percent approval rating and 59 percent disapproval rating.
Beyond Trump’s overall standing, the survey found economic pessimism remained widespread. Some 61 percent of respondents said they were pessimistic about the economy and its future outlook, the highest level recorded by CNBC since December 2023.
Only 25 percent expressed optimism. The survey also found Trump’s economic approval rating at 38 percent, compared with 60 percent disapproval, producing a net economic rating of minus 22 points.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Independents Are Driving the Decline
Enten argued that independent voters are a major reason for Trump’s weak overall standing.
According to CNN’s analysis, Trump’s net approval rating among independents currently stands at minus 45 points. Enten said that figure is even worse than the comparable numbers recorded by former President Richard Nixon during the Watergate scandal and George W. Bush during the Iraq War.
Nixon previously held the record at minus 37 points among independents at this stage of a second term, while Bush stood at minus 31.
“Donald John Trump, the worst ever rating, net approval rating, with independents at this point in a second term,” Enten said.
What Are Polling Averages Saying?
While individual polls can fluctuate, broader polling averages paint a similar picture.
CNN’s Poll of Polls, which aggregates recent national surveys meeting the network’s reporting standards, currently shows Trump with a 36 percent approval rating and a 61 percent disapproval rating for the period June 17 through July 13.
The average incorporates polling from Washington Post/Ipsos, Winthrop University/YouGov, Strength In Numbers/Verasight, Reuters/Ipsos and CBS News/YouGov. CNN notes that its Poll of Polls does not have a margin of sampling error because it is an aggregate.
The New York Times polling average, updated July 21, places Trump at 39 percent approval and 58 percent disapproval.
Polling analyst Nate Silver’s approval tracker paints a slightly less negative picture. As of July 21, Trump’s net approval rating stood at minus 17.4 points.
Silver noted that Trump’s rating had improved somewhat from a second-term low of minus 20.2 points recorded in May, though newly added Washington Post, Echelon Insights and YouGov surveys recently pushed the average closer to minus 22.
Silver also observed that Trump’s current net approval is slightly better than former President Joe Biden’s rating at the equivalent point in his presidency, which stood at minus 19.2.
White House Pushes Back
The White House rejected suggestions that Trump’s presidency should be measured solely through polling numbers.
White House spokesman Davis Ingle said in a statement that “no other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump, who is working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more.”
Ingle added: “The President has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world, and this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect.”
What Happens Next
Enten noted during the CNN segment that rising gasoline prices could create additional political pressure on Trump’s approval ratings with fewer than four months until the midterm elections.
Prediction markets cited on-air showed the probability of average gas prices reaching at least $4.10 per gallon jumping from 14 percent on July 13 to 84 percent several days later. Whether that translates into further movement in Trump’s approval numbers remains uncertain.
What is clearer is that, according to several major polling averages, the president enters the final stretch before the midterms facing some of the weakest public ratings of his second term.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Sam Wilson.
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