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With the August 3 MLB trade deadline less than two weeks away, the Washington Nationals stand at a crossroads. At .500 with a 51-51 record just 1.5 games out of a crowded National League Wild Card race, President of Baseball Operations Paul Toboni must weigh the thrill of a short-term playoff chase against the long-term vision of his organizational rebuild.
At the center of that equation is 30-year-old left-hander Foster Griffin. Once a low-risk winter signing, Griffin has transformed into one of baseball’s best starters and pitching assets on the trade market.
From NPB Reinvention to All-Star Ace
To understand the deadline frenzy around Griffin, you have to look at the sheer improbability of his turnaround. The former first round pick spent three seasons refining his repertoire in Japan’s Nippon Profession Baseball league before returning to the MLB. This past offseason, Washington took a low-cost flyer on the lefty with a one-year, $5.5 million contract.
That modest deal has yielded staggering results. Across 20 starts, Griffin has posted an 11-2 record alongside a 2.68 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP, as per Baseball Reference. Despite these great results, his underlying metrics do not tell the full success story. His xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) is nearly a point higher than his ERA at 3.61 showing he may be a product of some good defense behind him. This xFIP is not too worrying as he has limits walks well (5.7 BB%) and has above average movement on his four-seam and cutter.
As a result of these terrific stats, Griffin earned his first career All-Star selection.
Why a Trade Makes Sense
Because Griffin is playing on an inexpensive, expiring contract, pitching-hungry contenders across the league are circling Washington’s front office. According to recent reporting from Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic, “rival executives believe a Foster Griffin trade is inevitable.”
However, Rosenthal notes that Washington is not rushing out the door to sell, they are waiting for the right offer to come. The Athletic reports that the Nationals are “still assessing whether to deal, extend or keep” Griffin.
While an extension would give Washington a veteran to pair with Cade Cavalli (6-4, 3.78 ERA), locking up a 30-year-old pitcher based on half a season of MLB dominance three years removed from busting out of the league would be a huge financial risk. In addition to this, if Griffin were to regress even slightly, his trade value would plummet from these highs. However, losing Griffin would make the already fourth worst pitching staff by ERA much worse and frustrate an overperforming clubhouse. It stands as a tough decision for the Nationals front office whether to sell at the peak but risk any playoff hopes this season, or to take on the financial risk for a better short-term future.
Top Trade Destinations
If Toboni decides to maximize Griffin’s value before August 3, three contenders stand out as ideal trade partners.
- Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers are a possibility for any pitching asset because they have the means and have shown historically that they will do what is necessary to win. Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone have all missed time this season and Shohei Ohtani has been extremely load-managed. The addition of Griffin would give the Dodgers reliable October innings without taking on multi-year payroll commitments, unless they wish to extend him.
- Atlanta Braves: Much like the Dodgers, the Braves’ rotation has been heavily injured. The Braves desperately need rotational stability as Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider and AJ Smith-Shawver have all missed time this season. Because of their flailing rotation, the Braves have seen their NL East lead shrink to just three games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies. Acquiring Griffin would provide the stability and swing-and-miss stuff needed to push them back into World Series favorite territory, but it would be hard to make the trade to a division rival.
- Milwaukee Brewers: Milwaukee thrives on targeting high-upside, budget-friendly pitching. Because Griffin is on just a $5.5 million contract, he fits the Brewers low-budget perfectly while providing the intimidating second punch after Jacob Misiorowski for a team that just lost Brandon Woodruff and is uncertain on the future of Kyle Harrison.
The Bottom Line
Whether the Nationals decide to buy, sell, or hold, Foster Griffin has quietly become the linchpin of the summer trade market. If Washington catches fire over the next week, Toboni may hold the line and reward his clubhouse. But if they maintain at the average or dip below, expect Griffin to spark a fierce bidding war among baseball’s top contenders.
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