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With 11 Major League Baseball teams hovering within three games of .500 while even the mighty Dodgers have cobbled together a losing record thus far in July, the 2026 World Series may well hinge on which clubs are able to make the perfect trade deadline pickups.
At the start of play on Tuesday, 19 of the 30 teams had consensus postseason odds (via Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs and PECOTA) of 15 percent or greater. Though we are neither proclaiming that all 19 will be deadline buyers nor that the other 11 will all be deadline sellers, those are the 19 teams we're going with as "contenders" for today's exercise.
In many cases, our perfect pickup for one "contender" is currently employed by a different "contender." Such is life as we wait to find out which way the various buyer/seller dominoes will fall.
However, we'll only be suggesting players who plausibly could be traded.
For instance, it's starting to feel unlikely that Tarik Skubal will be dealt this summer. But it is possible, so he's our perfect deadline pickup for a couple of teams, even as Detroit is on the list as one of our 19 contenders.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics, postseason odds and records/standings are current through the start of play on Tuesday.
AL East (1 of 6)
Baltimore Orioles (23.5% postseason odds): LHP Josh Hader
We're diving straight into the unknown with a dream acquisition from a team that might not actually be selling, by a sub-.500 team that might not actually be buying.
Houston is 3.5 games back in the AL West and 4.5 games back in the wild card race, and it knows darn well from personal experience last year that a five-game gap at the trade deadline can vanish in a hurry.
But at six games below .500 with a minus-50 run differential that suggests their situation perhaps should be even worse right now, maybe the Astros embrace a seller's market—it is especially looking like a seller's market for closers, now that Aroldis Chapman is presumably off the block—and let someone else pay the ~$45M left on Hader's contract through 2028.
If he's available, surely Baltimore is inquiring. The Orioles bullpen has been rock solid as a whole over the past month as they've nudged their way back into the postseason conversation, but the revolving door at closer—four different pitchers have recorded Baltimore's last four saves—is a concern for a team that cannot afford to blow any more saves from here on out.
Boston Red Sox (61.8% postseason odds): C Hunter Goodman
New York Yankees (97.1% postseason odds): C Hunter Goodman
Could be quite the bidding war right here, as these loathed rivals are probably the two teams most desperately looking to upgrade their catcher situation.
While Hunter Goodman hit three home runs on Sunday to reach 30 for the season, Boston has gotten three home runs from its catchers in this entire campaign. Carlos Narváez has all three of them, and he's batting .200 for the year. At least Connor Wong is reaching base at a great clip—and did homer once while serving as the DH—but making him the base-reaching backup to Goodman's power bat would be fantastic.
New York has gotten twice as many catcher home runs as Boston has, all six courtesy of Austin Wells. But even with those occasional dingers, Wells entered play on Monday with a .501 OPS, good for dead last in the majors among players with at least 200 plate appearances. As a result, "NYY C" is triple-slashing .172/.251/.264.
What we don't know is whether Colorado will consider trading Goodman with three years of arbitration eligibility remaining. But what we do know is that both of these teams have a good enough farm system to pique the Rockies' interest with a Godfather offer.
Tampa Bay Rays (96.3% postseason odds): 2B Luis Arraez
We're not exactly reinventing the wheel here. Seemingly everyone in the business of playing "MLB Trade Deadline Matchmaker" has made the connection between Arraez and the Rays.
The Giants second baseman is on pace for what would be his fourth consecutive season of at least 180 hits, while Tampa Bay has gotten a whole lot of nothing on offense from its primary middle infield trio of Richie Palacios, Ben Williamson and Taylor Walls.
Adding another decent starting pitcher would also be swell for the Rays, so maybe they snag Tyler Mahle amid these negotiations for Arraez. Getting one more reliable bat into this lineup is more important, though, and bats don't come more reliable than Arraez's.
Non-Contenders: Toronto Blue Jays (10.8% postseason odds)
AL Central (2 of 6)
Chicago White Sox (62.6% postseason odds): RHP Sandy Alcantara
"Barring an utter collapse, the hottest team in baseball not only intends to keep staff ace Sandy Alcantara, but also add strategically to its roster."
That's what The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported on July 10, right before Miami's "barring an utter collapse" began. The Marlins proceeded to get swept by Cleveland to end the first half, swept by Milwaukee to open the second half and entered Tuesday on a seven-game losing streak.
They're still right there in the NL wild card picture and probably wouldn't sell if they had to decide right now. But moving Alcantara is far more of a possibility now than it was two weeks ago.
If the White Sox can get that ace for a prorated $5M this year and a $21M club option next year, that would be huge. After entering this season feeling at least one more year away in their rebuild, they're not likely to be a "swapping prospects for rentals" deadline team. But maybe they get a bit aggressive for a guy who would also be their Opening Day starter in 2027—assuming there eventually is an Opening Day in 2027...
Cleveland Guardians (66.3% postseason odds): OF Jo Adell or OF Mickey Moniak
When Cleveland buys, it tends to target buy-low candidates. Its biggest deadline acquisitions two years ago were Lane Thomas amid a replacement-level season in Washington and an injured Alex Cobb. And that was a busier late-July than usual for the Guardians.
With that in mind, Jo Adell fits the bill for them. His slugging has plummeted 100 points from last year. However, he still has more home runs (14) than Cleveland's top sluggers this season, they could use an outfielder with some pop and his contract situation ($5.2M this year, arbitration-eligible for 2027) should be agreeable, even to Cleveland.
Mickey Moniak is in a similar boat, making $4M this season with one year of team control remaining, providing 15 home runs and replacement-level WAR. Unlike Adell, Moniak is actually slugging better than ever before. However, his home/road and LHP/RHP splits are alarming, but that might be just fine for a team that is eternally trying to win on a budget.
Detroit Tigers (26.7% postseason odds): OF Jung Hoo Lee
Save for Riley Greene, outfield has been a disaster for Detroit. Even as they've turned things around as a team since the beginning of June, the Tigers have gotten next to nothing out of the likes of Matt Vierling, James Outman and Kerry Carpenter.
Perhaps they could rescue San Francisco from one of its big contracts?
Detroit is presently right on the luxury tax cutline and would probably ask the Giants for some cash to broker this deal. But Detroit also has approximately $110M worth of 2026 salary that might/will hit free agency this winter and reasonably could take on the 3 years, $63M remaining on Jung Hoo Lee's contract beyond this season.
His .303 batting average and nearly indistinguishable LHP/RHP splits could be the ticket that gets Detroit over the hump.
Minnesota Twins (18.2% postseason odds): LHP A.J. Minter
It's not a particularly splashy option, but the Twins aren't in a particularly splashy place, probably still more likely to sell C Ryan Jeffers than to make a concentrated effort to improve their 2026 postseason odds at the deadline.
If they are trying to upgrade, though, bullpen is their clear and present need. And with a 1.80 ERA through his 20 appearances thus far, Minter has been one of the few bright spots for the Mets.
What would be fun is if the Twins really went for it in one fell swoop, adding Minter (free agent this winter), Brooks Raley (free agent this winter) and Luke Weaver ($11M in 2027) while shipping the Mets a decent package of prospects. What a 180 that would be for Minnesota after setting its bullpen ablaze at last year's deadline.
Non-Contenders: Kansas City Royals (0.1% postseason odds)
AL West (3 of 6)
Seattle Mariners (73.0% postseason odds): OF Seiya Suzuki
Cal Raleigh's Monday night grand slam off southpaw Caleb Ferguson notwithstanding, Seattle's inability to hit left-handed pitching has been a season-long conundrum, arguably the biggest the Mariners have been unable to break through and live up to preseason expectations.
Unfortunately, the trade block isn't exactly replete with right-handed bats worth a darn, unless the M's (who already have Raleigh) want to overpay for a catcher a la Hunter Goodman, Adley Rutschman or Shea Langeliers.
The Cubs have a bit of a surplus of bats and a desperate need for arms, though, which should make for a perfect trade partner with Seattle's six-man rotation. Buyer-to-buyer trades at the deadline don't happen often, but Seattle would be motivated to get creative to acquire a two-month rental of Seiya Suzuki and his .945 OPS vs. LHP.
Texas Rangers (54.3% postseason odds): RHP Luke Weaver
Though Texas has one of the higher conversion rates on save opportunities (29 of 39), the right-handed contingent of this bullpen has left a lot to be desired.
In a dream world, sure, they'd go out and get Mason Miller to solve that problem, even though they already have an All-Star closer in Jacob Latz. But they would have to be willing to give up top prospect Sebastian Walcott and then some in order to grease those wheels, and that's highly unlikely to happen.
They could figure something out for Luke Weaver, though, who has bounced back in a big way from a modest 2025 and is signed through next season for another $11M.
Non-Contenders: Houston Astros (14.1% postseason odds), Athletics (0.9% postseason odds), Los Angeles Angels (0.1% postseason odds)
NL East (4 of 6)
Atlanta Braves (96.7% postseason odds): LHP Tarik Skubal
The great unknown on the starting pitching market is who the heck is actually available.
On Tuesday morning, ESPN's Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel put out an updated ranking of their top 100 trade candidates. On it, the top five starting pitchers were Tarik Skubal, Joe Ryan, Reid Detmers, Casey Mize and Sonny Gray. One of them (Detmers) has two years of team control remaining and might not be readily available. The other four all play for teams who definitely still have a pulse in the AL playoff hunt, with at least Boston's Gray almost certainly not going anywhere at this point.
Surely, though, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos is tirelessly working the phones to figure out the best arm tentatively available, because they need someone other than Chris Sale who can start a postseason game. So if Detroit is willing to part with Skubal, Atlanta may be his likeliest destination.
Miami Marlins (26.2% postseason odds): 3B Isaac Paredes
Just as quickly as Miami became a viable postseason contender with its 20-6 run through June, the Marlins are free-falling out of the conversation via their seven-game losing skid. (Quite the sharp rise and decline in their playoff odds graph on FanGraphs.)
If we're assuming they're going for it, though, they sure could use some help at third base, where they have gotten a dreadful .559 OPS for the year.
They certainly could afford to go get Matt Chapman, who is in season No. 2 of a six-year, $151M contract in San Francisco. That's a steep price by Miami's standards, but aside from a $21M club option for Sandy Alcantara, they don't have a single known figure on their 2027 payroll.
But Isaac Paredes' contract—$9.5M this season with a $13.5M club option for 2027—figures to be much more in their comfort zone. However, they would have to part with some serious prospects to A) get Houston to move him and B) edge out the other offers if he is on the block.
Philadelphia Phillies (80.9% postseason odds): LHP Josh Hader
When Trea Turner was sitting on a sub-.600 OPS in mid-June, Philadelphia's need for a right-handed bat (preferably in the outfield) was at an all-time high. But now that he has a .943 OPS and seven home runs over his last 27 games—not to mention Derek Hill's wholly unexpected .911 OPS since the Phillies acquired him from the White Sox—their top priority at the deadline is probably upgrading the bullpen.
While they definitely don't need a closer, a dominant left-handed reliever would be fantastic. José Alvarado has been struggling all season long and maybe won't even make the postseason roster, at which point it's Tim Mayza or bust in a hypothetical NLCS against the Dodgers' left-handed heavy lineup.
Josh Hader has a full no-trade clause and may well reject a proposal in which he would be, at best, splitting save situations with Jhoan Duran. But if he's open to it, I'd certainly feel better about picking the Phillies to the World Series if they had Hader to deal with the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy.
Non-Contenders: Washington Nationals (13.7% postseason odds), New York Mets (0.9% postseason odds)
NL Central (5 of 6)
Chicago Cubs (83.5% postseason odds): RHP Joe Ryan
In an ideal world, Justin Steele would have been back by now, shoving alongside Cade Horton atop this rotation, with big offseason acquisition Edward Cabrera becoming the clear choice to start no worse than Game 3 of the postseason.
Well, Steele has yet to return (and isn't expected to factor into the starting rotation if he does make it back), Horton (UCL) is gone until probably this time next year and Cabrera had a 5.10 ERA in his 14 starts before landing on the IL a month ago.
At this point, it's looking like they'll be crossing their fingers with Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga in the first two games of the postseason. And they're both impending free agents, so Chicago is presumably searching for more than just rentals to address the rotation.
Though Joe Ryan just got shelled for six home runs by the Guardians on Monday, he has otherwise had an excellent season and could be the no-brainer G1 starter for the Cubs—if the Twins end up selling.
Milwaukee Brewers (99.8% postseason odds): LHP Robbie Ray
Brandon Woodruff is done for the year after making just nine appearances.
Milwaukee's 2025 breakout pitcher, Quinn Priester, is also done for the year, undergoing thoracic outlet decompression surgery last month after his failed attempt to rehab a nerve issue.
Kyle Harrison is presently on the IL with forearm tightness, though they hope he'll be back in the next couple of weeks.
Jacob Misiorowski returned on Monday from his brief arm fatigue hiatus, but only lasted four innings (65 pitches) as the Brewers monitor the Cy Young hopeful's workload.
The moral of the story is that while the Brewers presently have the best record in baseball, they need some starting pitching about as badly as anyone. They've already added Lance McCullers Jr. from Houston, but they'll also be on the hunt for rentals who could be starters in the postseason, such as Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman and Casey Mize. With their loaded farm, they even could go big for Tarik Skubal.
Pittsburgh Pirates (38.6% postseason odds): RHP Mason Miller
Frankly, this entire division could use a fair amount of TLC on the bullpen front. But that's especially true of Pittsburgh, which has a teamwide bullpen ERA of 4.38 and a closer (Gregory Soto) who hasn't been particularly reliable since early in the 2022 campaign.
So, how prepared are they to double down on their "way more aggressive than usual" offseason and chase their first postseason berth in more than a decade?
Pittsburgh has three remaining years of team control on Paul Skenes, which is also what's left on Mason Miller's contract. And if they're ready to go all-in on being a contender through 2029, their farm system is loaded enough to make it worth San Diego's while.
St. Louis Cardinals (23.8% postseason odds): LHP Reid Detmers
The Cardinals are still hanging in there, tied with both Miami and Pittsburgh for the NL's final wild card spot. And they need a little bit of pretty much everything if they're buying.
Most likely, their first call if they're buying is going to be to the Angels. Their current interim general manager, John Mozeliak, had been with the Cardinals for three decades, spending 2007-25 as their general manager before he passed the torch to Chaim Bloom.
Needless to say, they have his phone number, and he presumably knows St. Louis' farm system quite well. And if the Cardinals are looking to make a pretty big move for two-plus years of Reid Detmers (or José Soriano), that connection could pay major dividends.
Non-Contenders: Cincinnati Reds (0.8% postseason odds)
NL West (6 of 6)
Arizona Diamondbacks (26.0% postseason odds): 1B Christian Walker
Though this is the third Houston Astro on the list (along with Josh Hader and Isaac Paredes), it should be reiterated that Houston might not / probably won't be selling. They're only a few games out of the playoff picture, and they have one of the easiest remaining schedules, featuring 13 more games against the A's and Angels.
But it's possible they will sell, and possible that Arizona will make a push for a reunion with Christian Walker.
Walker had a .963 OPS 37 games into the season, but has come back to earth in a huge way with a .649 mark since then. Couple that with his $20M salary in each of 2026 and 2027 and it's hard to imagine there will be much of a bidding war here.
But Arizona's first base situation has been a disaster since Ildemaro Vargas started to cool off in early May, to the point where even a .649 OPS from that spot in the lineup would be a considerable upgrade. If Walker heats back up in his old stomping grounds, even better.
Los Angeles Dodgers (99.97% postseason odds): LHP Tarik Skubal
For a while, the projected connection between the Dodgers and Tarik Skubal had nothing to do with team need. It was primarily a combination of Los Angeles having the top farm system, the deepest pockets and a desire to get the best player available if they're buying anything.
But now—with Shohei Ohtani (knee) temporarily not pitching while neither Tyler Glasnow (back) nor Blake Snell (elbow) is exactly a day or two away from returning from the IL—landing a big fish from the starting pitcher market feels like less of a luxury and more of a necessity.
They do have a nearly insurmountable 11.5-game lead in the NL West and might not get too carried away at the deadline if they're reasonably confident at least two of Ohtani, Glasnow and Snell will be good to go for the postseason. But at a half game behind Milwaukee and four games ahead of Atlanta in the race for first-round byes, maybe they make a huge splash for the top arm available after all.
Non-Contenders: San Diego Padres (8.9% postseason odds), San Francisco Giants (0.3% postseason odds), Colorado Rockies (0.1% postseason odds)
