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When you picture one of the premier arms on the market this coming trade deadline, a soft-tossing 30-year-old rookie doesn’t immediately come to mind.
In the summer of 2014, the Kansas City Royals selected Foster Griffin out of high school 28th overall. Griffin never quite captured the first-round-pick pedigree over his six-year minor league career, losing most of his prospect intrigue by the time he turned 22. He pitched to an ERA north of 5.00 over 2018 and 2019.
With the Royals short on pitching depth in the heart of the 2020 pandemic, Griffin would get his first shot at the highest level. By chance, his debut would come on July 27, his 25th birthday. The fun would end there. Following 1.2 innings of scoreless ball, he would exit the game with a supposed forearm strain.
Reflecting on his tumultuous journey to the big leagues, Griffin said to reporters following the game, “To kind of see this come full now, even given the circumstances, is really cool. I definitely think the struggles in the minor leagues are going to help me going forward just because I did come out of them. I do think that’s something I’ll be able to take going forward at the major-league level, as well.”
Griffin’s ability to handle adversity would be put to the test, as the diagnosis would later be altered to a torn UCL. He would miss the rest of the 2020 season and a portion of the following year.
His next action in the majors would come just under two years following his debut. He saw two stints with the big league club that season. He was subsequently designated for assignment and shipped off to Toronto. Griffin threw once for the Blue Jays during the September roster expansion and was released at the season’s end.
Stats, rankings, and standings updated prior to games on July 21.
Griffin Heads to NPB
In hopes of recapturing his starting pitching ability, Griffin made the jump to Japan. There have been a handful of success stories from the MLB-to-NPB pipeline, such as Miles Mikolas and Nick Martinez. Griffin looked to be the next.
Griffin signed with the Yomiuri Giants, for whom he pitched at a league-average level over his first two seasons.
But 2025 was different. Griffin rocked a 1.62 ERA over 78 innings. He was named an NPB All-Star before a knee injury capped his season.
The performance was still enough for the Washington Nationals to take a flier on Griffin, inking him to a one-year deal worth $5.5 million.
Rookie of the Year Candidate
Griffin has exceeded the wildest of expectations from Nationals fans and brass, pitching to a 2.68 ERA over 117.1 innings, making it through five innings in all but one game this season. The stuff has played well; he has struck out 23.5% of batters to just a 5.7% walk rate.
Twelve years after he signed his first pro contract, Griffin was named an MLB All-Star. He struck out two batters in his inning on a national stage.
Sitting low-90s with his four-seam, Griffin comes at batters with the kitchen sink approach, leading with his cutter primarily. It’s 88 mph with above-average horizontal action, generating +12 run value, keeping batters to a .209 batting average.
Since he last pitched in MLB, Griffin added a sweeper, sinker, and splitter to his arsenal, cutting down the usage on his fringier curveball. A seven-pitch mix with plus command has been enough to forego his mellow velocity and spin capacity.
His top-10 ERA in the league is unlikely to hold up, but his peripherals suggest he can be an above-average arm through the end of the season.
Buy or Sell?
As of July 21, the Nationals own a 51-50 record. That lands them in fourth place in the NL East, but they sit just one game out of a Wild Card spot.
Washington hasn’t surged or fallen off through the season, more so coasting around .500 over the entirety of the year. The offense has done a lot of the heavy lifting with inconsistent play around Griffin on the pitching staff, particularly in the bullpen.
So, the question is whether the Nationals brass believes in the current group enough to buy at the trade deadline.
If they don’t, Griffin and his expiring deal would be the first to go.
That expiring deal is precisely what makes him so unusual. It’s not often that a Rookie of the Year candidate is also a rental. Most of the time, All-Star rookies aren’t on the trade block. And most of the time, rentals have a much longer MLB track record for potential suitors to consider.
Even more regular rental starting pitchers are an odd demographic. Last summer, Dustin May delivered James Tibbs III and Zach Ehrhard while an injured Shane Bieber garnered Khal Stephen. The year prior, Jack Flaherty was dealt for Thayron Liranzo and Trey Sweeney.
Griffin should elicit a similar package of a fringe top-100 prospect.
But capitalizing on the James Wood and CJ Abrams timeline should be the team’s top priority. It’s historically been tough for the Nationals to keep their players in Washington. Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper. All superstars that they couldn’t pay up for.
Griffin would be cheaper than any frontline starter on the market to extend. Although he’s not likely to maintain his All-Star form in the future, consistency and stability in the middle of a rotation bring value in itself.
There’s the added wrinkle that Washington has the farm system depth to acquire talent. At the very least, they should explore trades for high-leverage relievers. Maybe not the Aroldis Chapmans and Josh Haders of the world, but Yennier Cano and Luke Weaver should be names to go after.
Ultimately, dealing Griffin hedges on where the Nationals are as August 3 approaches, but their decision will say a lot about how the front office views this core and the future of the club.
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