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A campaign memorandum released July 20 by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates indicates U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds holds a 43-point lead in the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary with four weeks remaining before the election.
The survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters was conducted July 14–16, 2026. According to the internal polling data, Donalds holds 53% support among likely primary voters, compared to 10% for Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, 9% for businessman James Fishback, and 4% for former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner. Undecided voters make up 23% of the electorate.
“Rep. Donalds wins a 53% majority, statistically unchanged from April,” pollsters Tony Fabrizio, David Lee, and Travis Tunis wrote in the memo addressed to interested parties. “Comparatively, Donalds’ opponents – despite spending millions — are all at 10% or less. With less than a month to go before the Republican primary, it is clear that Byron Donalds is the overwhelming favorite to be the nominee for the GOP in the race for Governor.”
The poll shows incremental shifts in candidate standings since earlier in the year. Donalds drew 45% in January and 54% in April before settling at 53% in July. Collins rose from 6% in January to 7% in April and 10% in July.
Fishback registered at 4% in January before reaching 9% in April and holding at 9% in July. Renner stood at 3% in January, 2% in April, and 4% in July. Undecided voters decreased from 41% in January to 28% in April and 23% in July.
The survey methodology utilized a mix of 40% live-operator cell phone interviews, 15% live-operator landline interviews, and 45% text-to-web responses. The sample was balanced for gender, age, race, and education based on voter files and past exit polls.
White voters made up 73% of respondents, Latino voters accounted for 17%, and Black and Asian American voters each comprised 4%. By region, 25% of respondents were from the Tampa market, 21% from Orlando, and 12% from Miami. The survey carries a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Trend comparisons were drawn from previous Fabrizio, Lee & Associates surveys of 600 voters in January and 420 voters in May.
With his primary standing intact, Donalds has turned his attention to the general election, targeting former U.S. Rep. David Jolly, a former Republican running for the Democratic nomination. Donalds has described Jolly’s rhetoric as “boring” language designed to cover a socialist platform.
Donalds has challenged Jolly to three general election debates. Jolly has not accepted the debate challenge. RELATED: Byron Donalds Calls For Three Debates With David Jolly In Florida Governor’s Race
READ: Florida Man Busted On The Way To Drug Test With Synthetic Urine ‘Strapped’ In Pants
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Byron Donalds Campaign Memo Shows 43-Point Lead One Month Ahead Of Florida GOP Primary
