SerpApi.Org
Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly has gained fresh momentum in Florida’s 2026 governor’s race, with a new poll showing him leading Republican Representative Byron Donalds weeks before both parties hold their primaries.
A Change Research survey found Jolly ahead 46 percent to 40 percent among likely voters. The poll surveyed 1,348 registered voters, including 1,004 likely voters and had a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. The result continues a series of Change Research surveys showing Jolly, a former Republican congressman who switched parties, running competitively or leading Donalds statewide.
A closer look at the numbers
Jolly’s lead comes despite relatively low name recognition. Only 45 percent of likely voters said they had heard or read anything about him, suggesting opinions could shift as the general election campaign intensifies.
The survey also comes with important caveats. Change Research is Democratic-aligned and the July poll was commissioned by Freedom Project USA. Its largest Jolly leads appear on an “informed ballot,” where respondents receive favorable biographical information about each candidate before answering rather than responding to a standard ballot test.
Other polls have painted a different picture. An Emerson College survey earlier this year showed Donalds leading Jolly 44 percent to 39 percent, while a Cherry Communications poll commissioned by the Florida Chamber of Commerce gave Donalds an 8-point advantage. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report continues to rate the race as “Solid Republican.”
The Donalds campaign has dismissed the Change Research findings, arguing they do not reflect the race’s underlying dynamics.
A race both parties are watching closely
The competing surveys highlight differing views of a race in a state that has shifted sharply Republican over the past decade.
A survey by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab found Donalds leading Jolly 46 percent to 41 percent among likely voters. That result aligned with polling averages showing Donalds holding a modest statewide edge, while also suggesting Florida’s Republican voter-registration advantage may not guarantee an easy victory.
The UNF poll also found Jolly attracting more crossover support. He won 7 percent of Republican voters, while Donalds drew 2 percent of Democrats. Independent and third-party voters split almost evenly, with Donalds narrowly ahead. Analysts have pointed to Jolly’s ability to attract voters outside his party as a key reason the race remains competitive.
Earlier Change Research surveys showed a similar trend. A June 11-14 poll of 1,015 likely voters gave Jolly a 5-point lead after respondents received biographical information about both candidates. Another survey conducted May 13-16 found Jolly leading 46 percent to 42 percent among 1,593 likely voters.
Primary fields take shape
Jolly and Donalds are widely expected to secure their parties’ nominations, though neither has officially done so.
Donalds, who represents Florida’s 19th Congressional District, quickly became the Republican frontrunner after Gov. Ron DeSantis reached his term limit. He has been endorsed by President Donald Trump, Sens. Rick Scott and Ted Cruz and 18 members of Florida’s congressional delegation.
He has also built a significant fundraising advantage, reporting $7.1 million raised as of April 1, 2026. None of his Republican primary rivals had raised more than $1 million during the same period.
Donalds has also faced criticism over business ties related to data centers, an issue expected to receive greater attention as the general election approaches.
Affordability emerges as a defining issue
The cost of living has emerged as one of the campaign’s defining issues.
According to Change Research, 70 percent of Floridians said they are falling behind on the cost of living, while 65 percent said the state is no longer affordable for themselves and their families. Democrats believe those concerns could boost Jolly’s chances if the race continues to tighten heading into November.
