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Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg have emerged as early frontrunners in the prospective 2028 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio has significantly narrowed Vice President JD Vance’s lead on the Republican side, according to a University of New Hampshire poll released Wednesday.
The Granite State Poll, conducted by the UNH Survey Center from July 15 to July 20, showed Ocasio-Cortez leading the Democratic field with 22% support among likely primary voters, followed closely by Buttigieg at 21%.
No other prospective candidate reached double digits. Arizona Senator Mark Kelly drew 9%, California Governor Gavin Newsom stood at 8%, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders held 6%, and former Vice President Kamala Harris registered 5%. No other candidate garnered more than 2%, while 12% of voters remained undecided.
Support for Ocasio-Cortez climbed seven percentage points since February, driven by strong backing from left-leaning voters. Nearly half of self-described socialists and one-third of progressives backed the New York congresswoman, with her supporters most often citing her policies, politics, or ideology as their main reason for standing behind her.
Meanwhile, Buttigieg drew steady support across broader ideological lines, capturing pluralities among liberals and moderates. Thirty-eight percent of his supporters cited his qualifications and competence as their top motivation. Support for Newsom and Harris fell by seven and five percentage points, respectively, since February.
Ocasio-Cortez posted the highest net favorability rating among likely Democratic primary voters at +55, with 64% holding a favorable view and 9% holding an unfavorable one. Buttigieg followed closely at +54 net favorability, supported by a 69% favorable rating against 15% unfavorable.
On the Republican side, Vance maintained the top spot with 36% support among likely GOP primary voters, though his numbers dropped from 53% in February. Rubio experienced a sharp rise over the same period, jumping 19 percentage points from 7% in February to 26% in July. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley tied for third at 8% each, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 6% and former National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard at 4%.
Vance drew his heaviest backing from conservatives, with 49% supporting him compared to 29% for Rubio. Rubio held a slight edge among libertarians at 33% to Vance’s 37%, and ran nearly even with Vance among moderates at 21% to 24%.
Rubio supporters primarily pointed to his past experience (32%) and qualifications (30%) as reasons for their choice. Vance supporters most frequently cited his qualifications (16%), values (14%), and past experience (14%). Overall, Vance registered a +62 net favorability rating among likely Republican primary voters, with 76% viewing him favorably and 14% unfavorably.
The poll also measured the ongoing influence of Donald Trump on the 2028 Republican electorate. Two-thirds of likely GOP primary voters (66%) said they want the party’s 2028 nominee to build on Trump’s presidency, while 28% said they prefer a candidate who goes in a different direction.
When asked about the impact of a potential Trump endorsement, 43% of likely Republican primary voters said an endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate, while another 43% said it would have little or no effect. Thirteen percent said a Trump endorsement would make them less likely to back that candidate.
The survey collected responses online and via text from 1,458 New Hampshire residents, including 648 likely Democratic primary voters and 579 likely Republican primary voters. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the Democratic primary sample and plus or minus 4.1 percentage points for the Republican primary sample.
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AOC And Buttigieg Lead 2028 New Hampshire Dem Field As Rubio Tightens GOP Race, Poll Finds
