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Some “napkin math” is painting an interesting picture of what the sales numbers for Valve’s Steam Machine could be after nearly one month of availability. The Steam Machine launched on June 29 at a staggering price of $1,049 for the base 512GB model without a controller and up to $1,428 for the 2TB model with a Steam Controller. Since then, many have pointed out that while its size and Linux-based Steam OS are nifty, most folks can build something similar or more powerful for less. Now it’s probably a given that Valve is marketing this PC gaming device to those who are not likely to build their own rig, but it still raises the question of how much is too much to charge for such a system. Well, that question may not be fully answered, but thanks to some calculations by Boiling Steam (via TechPowerUp), we may at least have an idea of how many units Valve has been getting out the door each week since the Steam Machine’s launch.
Calculations were made using Valve’s formula for its top seller list. A revenue bounding box was derived after the Steam Machine reached 2nd place on the top seller list, with the number one spot once again held by Counter-Strike, serving as the ceiling point. Boiling Steam then used sales figures for the number one and number three spots, along with identifying other sales variables to compute total sales based on three revenue targets in the $10M, $14M, and $18M range. Using these figures its estimated that Valve is moving 8,700, 12,100, and up to 15,600 units per week.
So this could be considered good news for Valve, but even if this creative math accurately conveys sales figures, there’s still a lot to consider for both the present and future. Valve previously said it would not sell the Steam Machine at a loss, something other console manufacturers have done while recouping costs with game releases, but as component prices continue to rise, how long until those costs overtake any profits currently being made? It’s estimated that at the current sales pace, Valve could move around 750K units within twelve months, but that doesn’t take into account potential competition in the near future or in 2027 when newer hardware could become available. A major criticism of the Steam Machine is that its hardware, for its price, is somewhat out of balance, and as newer, more affordable hardware becomes available, competitors might successfully launch their own systems that could draw sales away from Valve’s PC gaming console.
There’s a lot to consider, but regardless, it looks as if the Steam Machine is off to a good start, for now, and it has followed the stellar release of the Steam Controller. Meanwhile, Valve’s other highly sought-after hardware, the Steam Frame, is nowhere to be seen. The cordless VR system is at the top of many wishlists and has not been mentioned by Valve for a spell.
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