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Trump Ordered 10 Nights of Iran Strikes. Hormuz Is Still Almost Closed: President Donald J. Trump has intensified the American air campaign against Iran. However, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains close to a standstill, and that's a serious problem. An Associated Press examination of the strategy found that both governments are escalating in an effort to control the waterway while leaving themselves fewer diplomatic options. Who wins? That's anyone's guess at the moment.
What We Know
U.S. Central Command completed its tenth consecutive night of strikes on July 20. Clearly, neither side wants to back down.
The official target list included Iranian command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air-defense systems. CENTCOM said the purpose was to reduce Iran’s ability to attack commercial vessels moving through Hormuz.
Hormuz Is Effectively Closed
The shipping data shows how far the military campaign remains from restoring normal trade. Only four commodity vessels crossed the strait on Monday, down from seven the previous day, according to Kpler data reported by Reuters. No very large crude carriers or liquefied natural gas tankers were visible in the traffic count.
And things just get worse from here. Iran also attacked another tanker, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel, while diplomats in Pakistan tried to revive the collapsed interim agreement. The latest diplomatic and maritime reporting showed the two tracks moving at the same time: military pressure continued while mediators searched for terms that could stop it.
Trump’s Air Campaign Can Damage Iran Without Reopening Hormuz
American aircraft and missiles can destroy coastal radars, fixed launch sites, command facilities, and naval infrastructure. Iran can disperse mobile missiles, drones, mines, and small maritime units across a long coastline. That imbalance explains why the geography of Hormuz limits what airstrikes can accomplish.
The remaining Iranian systems do not need to stop every ship. A few attacks, drifting mines, navigation interference, or threats against crews can keep major operators away. Iran’s more effective method has been persistent uncertainty rather than a complete physical closure. Commercial companies then make the decision for Tehran by delaying or canceling transits. The risk is just too great.
CENTCOM says it has helped approximately 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude pass through the strait since early May. Those movements demonstrate that escorted traffic is possible. Current data still shows that military access has not restored commercial confidence. And that's bad news for the global economy.
Iran Is Absorbing Strikes Without Accepting U.S. Terms
The first weeks of the war removed many fixed targets that American planners had identified before the campaign. Later operations have to locate dispersed systems, strike repaired facilities, and prevent Iran from rebuilding enough capability to threaten shipping again. The target set becomes harder as the campaign continues.
Iran has also shown that punishment does not automatically produce capitulation. Tehran continues attacking regional bases and shipping while linking normal Hormuz traffic to an end to U.S. operations. The Revolutionary Guard has threatened that energy exports will remain disrupted while American strikes continue.
The U.S. campaign has destroyed Iranian command sites, launchers, air defenses, and maritime assets. The strategic test is whether those losses produce the behavior Washington wants. Ten nights of renewed attacks have not yet generated regular tanker traffic or a durable agreement.
Hormuz Has Become a Commercial Confidence Problem
Shipowners assess crew safety, insurance coverage, charter obligations, cargo value, and the likelihood of another attack. A CENTCOM statement that the route is open cannot settle those calculations. Earlier traffic recovered briefly even while mines and stranded vessels remained unresolved. Renewed attacks quickly reversed that improvement.
The economic consequences are now visible in the United States. The national average price for regular gasoline returned to about $4 per gallon, up roughly 13 cents in a week, according to AAA data reported by the Associated Press. Brent crude moved between approximately $86 and $91 per barrel on Monday as shipping slowed again.
Higher prices increase pressure on the administration ahead of the midterm elections. They also give Iran leverage without requiring it to defeat U.S. forces directly. Every delayed tanker adds cost to shipping and energy markets while Washington pays to maintain escorts, intelligence coverage, air defense, and repeated strikes.
The United States Needs Political Terms for a Military Exit
Washington’s available courses remain costly. It can continue strikes and escorts for an indefinite period, expand the campaign, reduce its involvement without securing open passage, or accept a negotiated arrangement that gives Iran some recognized role around the strait. The main exit options all require a significant tradeoff.
A workable agreement would need Iran to stop attacks, permit nondiscriminatory transit, cooperate on mine clearance, and accept independent monitoring. The United States would need to define which sanctions, blockade measures, and strikes end in return. Without those terms, each American attack creates another Iranian response and another reason for commercial vessels to remain outside the waterway.
The next measure of success will come from tanker schedules rather than strike totals. Four commodity crossings, no visible VLCC or LNG traffic, and another abandoned crew show that Hormuz remained far from normal on July 21.
About the Author: Harry J. Kazianis
Harry J. Kazianis (@Grecianformula) was the former Senior Director of National Security Affairs at the Center for the National Interest (CFTNI), a foreign policy think tank founded by Richard Nixon based in Washington, DC. Harry has over a decade of experience in think tanks and national security publishing. His ideas have been published in the NY Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, and many other outlets worldwide. He has held positions at CSIS, the Heritage Foundation, the University of Nottingham, and several other institutions related to national security research and studies. He is the former Executive Editor of the National Interest and the Diplomat. He holds a Master's degree focusing on international affairs from Harvard University.
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