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After months of Ukrainian strikes on fuel refineries, Russia is currently experiencing an ongoing fuel shortage. Repeated attacks have caused a deficit in the country’s supply of usable gasoline, resulting in long queues at local gas stations as authorities impose strict limits on how much fuel motorists can purchase. This has had wide ripple effects on the economy as taxis, truckers, food delivery services, and more struggle with shortages. The problem facing the Kremlin is the decrease in fuel refining capabilities following Ukrainian strikes. Repairing the largest oil refineries around the country could take months, meaning that refining capacity may not return to normal levels until the end of the year, assuming, of course, that Ukrainian attacks don’t persist.
Addressing Russia’s Fuel Crisis
In some regions of Russia, the Situation has stabilized a bit. According to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, some of the government's efforts are starting to pay off. In some regions, particularly the Moscow and Leningrad regions, fuel restrictions are starting to be lifted, with the number of operating gas stations rising and queue wait times decreasing. “Of course, in some regions today the tense situation remains,” Novak said. “And today we discussed with companies manually and point-by-point how to fill these regions with petroleum products.” The Deputy Prime Minister assured the public that shortages in all regions will be addressed and that special attention will be paid to farmers, who require fuel for their tractors and other equipment.
To counteract the rising shortages, the government has taken a number of measures to increase supply. In May, Moscow announced that it would halt exports of gasoline and jet fuel until the end of July. Resources would instead be redirected back to the local market to try to soften the initial blow caused by Ukrainian drone strikes. Operational refineries have also been operating at full capacity, while most refineries in the Western part of the country have been struck—in some cases, multiple times.
The refineries in the East remain mostly untouched but are struggling to satisfy the country's demand. Additionally, the government has lifted restrictions on lower-quality fuels, which are easier and quicker to produce.
Shortages Remain in Rural Regions
While more populated regions like Moscow and Leningrad have been given special priority, more rural regions of Russia still struggle with crippling fuel shortages. In the Novgorod region, just south of Saint Petersburg, some remote areas are still feeling the full effects of the shortages.
“We live in a village with no grocery store, no pharmacy, no transportation to the amenities of civilization. Our whole lives, once a week, we've driven to a fueling station 30 kilometers away to fill up our tanks and cans, or maybe even a couple extra (for the generator) just in case of a power outage,” one woman wrote on VK, Russia’s largest social media network. “What are we supposed to do without a generator? Cook over a fire and store food in the cellar?”
Despite promises from the government to provide fuel to the farmers, some farmers in Russia are still complaining about the lack of fuel for their combines.
“How am I supposed to fill up my tractor out in the fields?” another person wrote on VK. “Am I supposed to drive it several kilometers to fill it up? And if I can’t gas up my tractor, then accordingly I—or more precisely, my cows—won't have any food for the winter.”
Many farmers in remote regions are unable to fill their gas cans due to current rationing policies and cannot fuel their farming equipment. Many experts in Russia are worried that current shortages could seriously impact crop outputs this year, which would have serious ripple effects across the domestic and global economies.
How Long Will Shortages Last?
So, how long are the shortages expected to persist?
The answer to that question depends on who you ask. Optimistic Russian sources estimate that the fuel situation in the country should return to a state of normalcy sometime in August.
Russian economic analyst Vladimir Chernov expects that increases in fuel imports and repairs to major refineries should allow the situation to stabilize relatively soon. “In most regions, the situation may return to normal in August, but in the south of the country and in remote regions, individual interruptions can persist until the beginning of autumn due to complex logistics and increased seasonal demand,” Chernov said, noting, however, that prices will likely remain high for some time.
Other economists are not so optimistic. According to finance expert Alexey Krichevsky, prices are unlikely to fully return to normal. Rising fuel prices could have serious knock-on effects for the Russian economy if left unchecked. “In any case, fuel will be 10 percent more expensive–15 percent,” Krichevsky said. “One can only guess how this will affect prices and inflation in the future. Because shortages and rising fuel prices are [causing] problems with harvesting, rising food costs, and so on. This, naturally, increases the cost of logistics. So inflation could easily go in a spiral.”
The situation is also heavily dependent on how well Russian air defenses are able to cope with Ukrainian drones, which are more than likely to attack major fuel refineries again once they are repaired.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
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