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The second tropical depression to form in the Atlantic hurricane basin during the 2026 hurricane season—Tropical Depression Two—has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is predicted to strengthen in the coming days, placing several Southern states in the potential impact zone as forecasters closely monitor its track and development.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said the system was producing sustained winds of 30 mph late Sunday and is expected to become a tropical storm as it moves near the northern Gulf Coast this week.
Why It Matters
The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and coastal impacts to portions of the Gulf Coast. The NHC has already issued a Tropical Storm Watch for parts of the Florida Panhandle, and officials have warned that additional watches may be needed for areas further west.
What’s Happening?
According to the NHC, Tropical Depression Two is moving slowly over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The depression is caught between areas of high pressure over the western Atlantic and the south-central United States, resulting in a sluggish north-northwest motion that is expected to continue before the system turns west later this week.
Forecasters expect gradual strengthening despite challenges including wind shear and pockets of dry air. The NHC forecasts that the depression could become a tropical storm Monday. However, the center of the system is expected to remain over the Gulf of Mexico rather than move inland across the Florida Panhandle.
The exact intensity remains uncertain. Some forecast models suggest the system could weaken due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions, while others indicate stronger development over the warm Gulf waters. The NHC said confidence in the intensity forecast remains lower than usual because of those competing factors.
What is Tropical Storm Bertha?
If Tropical Depression Two strengthens and reaches tropical-storm status, meaning it develops sustained winds of at least 39 mph, the NHC will assign it the next name on the Atlantic hurricane naming list, which is Bertha.
Which Locations Could Be Affected?
The greatest, most immediate concern is along the northern parts of the Gulf Coast.
The NHC warned that tropical-storm conditions could begin affecting portions of the Florida Panhandle as early as Monday night.
The NHC advisory states that the Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Ochlockonee River to the Florida/Alabama border, which could include all or parts of these Florida Panhandle counties:
- Franklin County
- Gulf County
- Bay County
- Walton County
- Okaloosa County
- Santa Rosa County
- Escambia County
It may also include the westernmost portion of Wakulla County near the Ochlockonee River boundary
Meanwhile, residents in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas have been advised to closely monitor forecasts as the tropical storm warnings could be expanded westward over the next several days.
The Tampa Bay Times reported that while the storm’s center is expected to remain well away from much of the Florida Peninsula, the system’s broad circulation is already helping produce showers and thunderstorms across parts of the state. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and localized flooding are possible in portions of Florida through the workweek.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are forecast across parts of the eastern and central Gulf Coast, with isolated locations potentially receiving up to 8 inches, increasing the threat of flash flooding.
Tropical Storm Watch Vs. Warning: What’s the Difference?
According to NOAA, a tropical storm watch means hazardous weather conditions are possible, while a warning means those conditions are expected.
In the case of tropical storms, a watch is typically issued when forecasters believe tropical-storm conditions could develop in an area, giving residents time to review emergency plans and prepare.
A warning is issued when tropical-storm conditions are expected and people should complete preparations and be ready to take immediate action if advised by local officials.
In short: a watch means be prepared; a warning means be ready to act.
Why Is the Storm Strengthening?
Tropical systems draw their energy from warm ocean waters, and Gulf water temperatures are currently favorable for development. Meteorologists say the depression is moving over waters in the mid-80s Fahrenheit, which can fuel additional strengthening.
However, dry air and wind shear—changes in wind speed and direction with height—could limit how much the storm ultimately intensifies.
What Should Residents Do?
With Tropical Depression Two forecast to strengthen and move near the northern Gulf Coast, residents in affected areas should review their hurricane preparedness plans and closely monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center and local emergency management agencies.
FEMA recommends taking the following steps before tropical-storm conditions arrive:
- Build a 72-hour emergency kit with enough food, water and essential supplies for every member of the household, with at least one gallon of water per person per day and several days’ worth of nonperishable food.
- Check whether you live in an evacuation zone and identify your evacuation route before conditions deteriorate.
- Sign up for emergency alerts through your state’s emergency management agency and ensure wireless emergency alerts are enabled on your phone.
- Charge phones and backup batteries and keep important documents in a waterproof container.
- Review your family communication plan so household members know how to contact one another if they become separated.
- Prepare for potential power outages by stocking flashlights, extra batteries and necessary medications.
- Never drive through flooded roads, as most flood-related deaths occur in vehicles.
Residents should also consult their state and local emergency management agencies for location-specific instructions. Florida residents can find evacuation-zone information, preparedness guidance and emergency updates through the Florida Division of Emergency Management at FloridaDisaster.org.
Even if Tropical Depression Two remains relatively weak, slow-moving tropical systems can produce significant rainfall, flash flooding and hazardous conditions far from their center, making advance preparation critical.
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