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A month ago, I took a look at the biggest fantasy football values on ESPN. Despite the constantly shifting fantasy football landscape, not much has changed since then. All three players I featured in that article are still wildly undervalued when comparing ESPN’s average draft position (ADP) to FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR). Go back and read that article first, then come back here for three more players being overlooked by ESPN drafters.
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Best Fantasy Football Draft Values on ESPN
Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF) | ESPN ADP: 152.7/ECR: 115
It’s pretty easy to analyze Dalton Kincaid. On a per-route basis, he is arguably the league’s best fantasy tight end. There were 45 tight ends to run at least 200 NFL routes last season (playoffs included). In that group, Kincaid posted a 27% target share (first), 3.04 yards per route run (first) and 0.71 PPR points per route run (first). The second-best tight ends in each category were at a 26% target share (close), 2.26 yards per route run (not close) and 0.58 PPR points per route run (not close).
Of course, there’s a reason I’m using per-route stats. Dealing with a knee injury (which might be chronic) and a complete lack of in-line blocking ability (which almost certainly is chronic), Kincaid posted just a 46% route participation rate. Even if we filter down to just the 14 games where the third-year tight end was active, he still ran only 33 more routes than teammate Dawson Knox. This is why, despite league-leading per-route metrics, Kincaid finished the season in a three-way tie with Dalton Schultz and Hunter Henry as the TE13 in points per game.
This duality is why I’ve written Kincaid up as both an overpriced player to avoid and a potential league-winner this offseason. If he can maintain anything close to his 2025 per-route stats in a more full-time role, he’s going to be an elite fantasy option. But the most likely outcome is that he remains a part-time player, resulting in maddeningly inconsistent fantasy output.
However, players don’t exist in a vacuum. Kincaid may be overpriced in some formats, but he’s undeniably underpriced as the TE17 and 153rd overall player in ESPN drafts. At that cost, he’ll be a hit even if he just runs back his troubled 2025. And the upside scenario that has earned him a TE12 ECR is still there. Snagging Kincaid as a high-reward, low-risk TE2 in the double-digit rounds is a no-brainer.
Christian Watson (WR – GB) | ESPN ADP: 95.4/ECR: 57
I talked about this extensively in my last article, but in case you didn’t take my advice in the intro, here’s the short version: Compared to ECR, ESPN drafters hate wide receivers in the early and middle rounds. This gap isn’t as jaw-dropping as it appears at first glance. But Christian Watson sticks out as a value even among his widely “undervalued” cohort. If every receiver is undervalued, are any of them actually undervalued?. The expert consensus has Watson ranked as the WR28; he is the WR36 in ESPN ADP.
The experts have it right on this one. If anything, they’re not going far enough with enthusiasm for the young Green Bay wideout. Following his shockingly early return from an ACL injury, Watson ranked as the WR16 in PPR points per game.
Like Kincaid, he was genuinely elite on a per-route basis, ranking eighth in yards per route run and sixth in fantasy points per route run among wide receivers (minimum 200 routes, playoffs included). Although he was “only” 26th in targets per route, Watson made up for that with a massive 17.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT) to rank second in air yards per route run (which is admittedly a stat I just made up).
And unlike with Kincaid, there’s reason to believe Watson’s role will expand in 2026. For one, he’s now another offseason removed from injury. Even by the end of last season, he tied for the Packers’ lead in route rate in their lone playoff game, posting a 73% mark well above his 54% regular-season average.
For another, Romeo Doubs‘ departure means the Packers now finally only have three starting-caliber wideouts. And of the trio of him, Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden, Watson is actually the most likely to play an every-down role. Reed has consistently been a slot specialist, and Golden has yet to actually be good in the NFL.
I’m honestly not sure what has ESPN managers so out on Watson. His resume, especially recently, is stellar, and he’s in arguably the best situation of his career. Perhaps they’re scared of his injury history, which is admittedly lengthy. But the fantasy community consistently overstates the extent to which injuries are predictable and/or player-specific. If your ESPN opponents are willing to give you this discount on a young player with genuine WR1 upside, take it.
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX) | ESPN ADP: 116/ECR: 76
Like Watson, Trevor Lawrence is a member of a group that ECR consistently prefers to ESPN ADP. With only a few specific exceptions (notably Jaxson Dart and Matthew Stafford), all of the back-end QB1s and high-end QB2s are being drafted lower on ESPN than they are ranked by the experts.
To be honest, ESPN managers have a point here. There are so many high-upside quarterback options. Once the truly elite dual-threat guys are off the board, it makes more sense to load up on skill position players than to pay up. Looking at things another way, is there really that much difference between Caleb Williams (QB7 in ECR) and Jordan Love (QB18)? I don’t think so.
With that said, Lawrence sticks out as a player ESPN managers are particularly low on, even putting aside the massive 40-pick gap in his overall ranking. In ECR, he is ranked as a solid QB1 at QB9 overall. On ESPN, he’s being drafted as a backup at QB13 overall. That’s a non-negligible difference.
Of course, I just made the point that there is a very long, flat tier of borderline QB1s this year. Arguably, the gap between Lawrence’s positional ADP and his positional ECR is just shuffling chairs within that tier. And it’s not even the biggest difference in this group — that honor goes to Justin Herbert, which you already know if you took my advice in the intro and read my previous ESPN values article.
With this in mind, I don’t necessarily recommend you smash Lawrence in every draft. But, especially if you’re the kind of diehard playing in multiple leagues across multiple formats, getting some shares of Lawrence at a discount on ESPN is a move that will pay off more often than not. We’re still talking about a former generational prospect coming off a career year, heading into the second season under Liam Coen, and on an absolutely loaded offense. Even in a consistently undervalued, arguably interchangeable group of players, he’s a player to target.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
