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Best ball draft picks to target (2026 fantasy football)

FantasyPros · Jul 21, 2026 11:38 · 15 min read

Best Ball Draft Picks to Target (2026 Fantasy Football)

After jamming 32 entries into Underdog pre-NFL Draft best ball contests, I didn’t lose steam. Instead, I’ve drafted 53 Underdog fantasy football teams since the NFL Draft. Only four of those teams are in Best Ball Mania VII. The others ... read more »

In all, I have $294 invested in Underdog’s post-NFL Draft best ball contests. The following tables feature the players who appear on 13.2% or more of my rosters at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end.

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Most-Rostered Best Ball Players: July 2026 (Fantasy Football)

Quarterbacks

My high roster rate for Josh Allen is undoubtedly slightly impacted by my Bills fandom. At the same time, he’s a reliable stud with a jaw-dropping weekly ceiling. Moreover, the pocket of players around him features many I’m not interested in drafting at their respective average draft position (ADP) on many rosters. Namely, Rashee Rice (25.6 ADP), Breece Hall (27.7), Trey McBride (28.7), Kyren Williams (31.3), Travis Etienne Jr. (34.9), Malik Nabers (37.7), Tetairoa McMillan (38.9) and Garrett Wilson (39.4) won’t be featured in the forthcoming tables.

In addition, I suspect the Bills will pass at a notably higher clip in 2026 than they did over the previous two-plus years with Joe Brady as Sean McDermott’s offensive coordinator. Brady is now the head honcho, and any potential guidelines McDermott had Brady working within on offense are no longer in place.

According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Panthers were tied for 18th in situation-neutral pass rate (56%) in 2020, when Brady was the club’s offensive coordinator. From Week 11 in 2023, when Brady replaced Ken Dorsey as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator, through last year’s Super Bowl, the Bills ranked 28th in situation-neutral pass rate (51%).

The club hired Pete Carmichael as the offensive coordinator. While he won’t call plays, he, like Brady, is from the Sean Payton coaching tree. Sadly, the RotoViz pace app doesn’t have data dating back to Carmichael’s first year as Payton’s offensive coordinator in 2009. However, per StatHead, from 2009-2021, the Saints were second in regular-season pass attempts (7,851 at 37.6 per game), with Carmichael and Payton collaborating on the offense. The Bills are unlikely to surge to one of the NFL’s highest passing rates in 2026, given the talent in their backfield and the quality of their rushing attack. Still, even a move from 28th to the middle of the pack would be significant for Allen’s passing outlook.

Jordan Love is another candidate for an upward move in passing rate. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the Packers were 24th in pass rate over expectation (-2.1% PROE) in 2025. The organization has streamlined its wide receiver corps. They’ll also aim for better health for some of their top pass-catching weapons this year, which would make airing the ball out more frequently with their rocket-armed quarterback more appealing.

Love was the QB15 in total points (241.1) and the QB19 in fantasy points per game (16.1) among quarterbacks with at least eight games played in 2025 in Green Bay’s run-heavy offense. The Packers were even more run heavy in 2024, ranking 30th in PROE (-4.5%). Nevertheless, Love was the QB17 in total points (244.9) and the QB16 in fantasy points per game (16.3) among those with at least eight games played. Love’s ADP makes him the QB18 in Underdog drafts. Even a rebound to his 2024 form would make him a small hit, but a seismic shift in passing rate could make him a big hit.

I highlighted Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence as must-have quarterbacks back in the middle of April, and I remain enamored with both signal-callers. As I noted in the linked piece, Herbert scored 22.4 fantasy points per game in the four games Joe Alt had at least a 90% snap share. Meanwhile, from Week 10 through Week 18, Lawrence was the QB1 in total points (210.9) and the QB1 in fantasy points per game (23.4).

Malik Willis could conceivably get benched this year if the Dolphins play poorly enough. The money Justin Fields received in free agency from the Jets wasn’t enough to keep him in the starting lineup, and it doesn’t guarantee Willis will start the entire 2026 season. Having said that, according to SumerSports, Willis was tied for fourth in expected points added (EPA) per play among quarterbacks with at least 50 plays in 2024 and was first in EPA per play in 2025. He excelled in limited opportunities, albeit with better weapons in Green Bay than he presently has on the Dolphins.

Willis’ rushing ability elevates his floor and gives him spike-week potential when his passing is clicking. Per StatHead, excluding Taysom Hill‘s 2022 and Lamar Jackson‘s 2018, the other 30 quarterback seasons of at least 500 rushing yards since 2016 produced at least 17.27 fantasy points per game, the mark set by Cam Newton’s 2020 campaign.

Bo Nix was the QB7 in total points (328.2) and the QB8 in fantasy points per game (19.3) among quarterbacks with at least eight games in 2024, and the QB7 (315.8) and QB11 (18.6) in 2025. Nix’s recovery from ankle surgery could impact his rushing ability. Regardless, the Broncos are tied for fourth in situation-neutral pass rate (58%) since 2025, and they added a new, speedy No. 1 wide receiver via trade to complement their big-bodied, ball-winning No. 1 wide receiver through his first two seasons.

Brock Purdy was the QB5 in fantasy points per game (20.8) among those with at least eight games played in 2025. If he and his teammates, new and old, are healthier this year, Purdy should outkick his QB12 ranking. He’s also back-stackable, so gamers don’t have to have Christian McCaffrey or Mike Evans on their roster to warrant snagging Purdy, but having either or both makes it compelling to pick Purdy, too.

Running Backs

Denver’s backfield could be an annoying three-player running-back-by-committee (RBBC) situation. At the same time, Jonah Coleman is the least expensive exposure for the group. He also has the requisite size and skills to handle goal-line duties and pass-protection responsibilities, giving him a path to the field if he’s better than J.K. Dobbins as a runner or the oft-injured running back is hurt again, or as a passing-game option if Payton sours on RJ Harvey or the second-year running back is injured.

I recently gushed about James Cook and Ray Davis as players to target at Underdog at their ADPs. One reason I love both running backs is Carmichael’s track record of using them in the passing game.

Cook is also coming off a rushing title in 2025 and 32 touchdowns in 33 games in the regular season in the past two years. At the same time, Cook might be at a heightened risk of injury in 2026 after logging a career-high 385 touches in the regular season and playoffs, making Davis a compelling and cheap handcuff to target late in Underdog drafts.

I’ve banged the drum for Keaton Mitchell the entire offseason. Best ball and managed leagues are different animals. Nonetheless, my glowing write-up about Mitchell’s explosiveness and ideal fit in Mike McDaniel’s offense applies to both formats, and best-ball gamers don’t need to guess when he’ll have an explosive run if he remains in a modest role and doesn’t see expansion under McDaniel.

Sean Tucker and Kenneth Gainwell are bets against Bucky Irving, for Tampa Bay’s offensive line to be healthier and for new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson to get more out of the offense than fired offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard did in 2025. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, Tucker paced Tampa Bay with 55% of the team’s rush attempts inside the 5-yard line and seven rushing touchdowns in 2025.

Tucker has also illustrated the ability to explode in a given week. Tucker scored 32.7 half-PPR points in Week 6 in 2024 and 33 in Week 11 in 2025. Meanwhile, Gainwell was the RB26 in half-PPR points per game (10.9) among running backs with at least eight games played in 2025. Gainwell has a track record of excelling in the passing game, and he set career highs for rush attempts (114), rushing yards (537) and rushing touchdowns (five) in the regular season in 2025.

According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, after eliminating kneels, scrambles and sneaks, the Chiefs were sixth in stuff rate (42.3%) and third in success rate (53.8%) with plodders at running back. Kenneth Walker III adds an explosive element and should thrive on his new team.

Jaylen Warren must compete with Rico Dowdle for backfield opportunities, but Warren’s pass-catching chops could result in him absorbing more looks from Aaron Rodgers without Gainwell. Warren is also a quality runner, and if Mike McCarthy doesn’t prefer to use the bigger and more bruising Dowdle as the club’s designated goal-line back, the incumbent should have some touchdown opportunities.

Warren might be the better option at the goal line if McCarthy leans on the pass. Per the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the Jets were first in pass rate inside the 10-yard line (75.4%) in 2024, Rodgers’ final season as their starting quarterback. The Cowboys were sixth in pass rate inside the 10-yard line that year, with McCarthy as their head coach. Dallas was also sixth in pass rate inside the 10-yard line (57%) in 2023.

Among 60 running backs with at least 65 rush attempts in the regular season and playoffs last year, Blake Corum was second in success rate (60.2%), fourth in stuff rate (38%) and seventh in explosive run rate (6.4%). Corum averaged 43.3 rushing yards per game and scored six rushing touchdowns in 20 games, siphoning some work from Kyren Williams. He can hit best ball lineups occasionally if Williams stays healthy, and Corum’s value would skyrocket if Williams were injured.

I’m not an injury optimist. So, don’t confuse Zach Charbonnet‘s inclusion on the table as an endorsement from me that he’ll be ready in Week 1. Instead, I’m picking him as part of thoughtful roster construction, anticipating that he might miss time or underperform while shaking off the rust early.

Thus, Charbonnet makes sense only when bye weeks are staggered for running backs, when bye weeks are backloaded for later in the year or when he’s part of a backfield of six or more running backs. Charbonnet handled 66.7% of Seattle’s rush attempts inside the 5-yard line and plunged into the end zone 12 times as a rusher in 17 games last season.

In addition, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Charbonnet’s 67 pass-blocking snaps led Seattle’s running backs. Charbonnet also led the backfield in route participation rate (33.7%). The club picked Jadarian Price in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft, but Charbonnet could be trusted with the high-value opportunities (i.e., goal-line and passing-down work) when he returns.

Circling back to the importance of thoughtfully drafting Charbonnet, less thoughtful gamers might depress their advancement rate odds by drafting him and failing to prepare for a slow start or missed games. If that’s the case, Charbonnet could have a low rate of advancement, making him a leverage play in the best ball playoffs.

Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Chase Brown and Derrick Henry are all high-volume lead running backs selected in the first two rounds. I’m happy to invest in any of them, as my favorite rosters feature one or two running backs through the first two rounds.

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Wide Receivers

Yuck. My Brandon Aiyuk picks look like money lit on fire and an obstacle those squads will need to overcome as he continues self-sabotage on social media, most recently criticizing the NFL Players Association (NFLPA).

Parker Washington seized his opportunity last season and barbecued defenses. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, among 91 wide receivers with at least 200 routes run in the 2025 regular season and playoffs, Washington was tied for 17th in targets per route run (0.25 TPRR), 11th in yards per route run (2.36 YPRR), tied for 27th in targets per route run (0.25), 11th in yards per route run (2.70) against man coverage on 97 routes, tied for 16th in targets per route run (0.25) and 15th in yards per route run (2.33) against zone coverage on 287 routes.

Washington also cooked on the money downs.

I wrote about Ricky Pearsall and Josh Downs as must-have wide receivers in early May. I also touted Christian Watson and Jaylen Waddle as WR3s with WR1 potential earlier this month. All four are on the table.

Terry McLaurin and Khalil Shakir were two of my most-targeted wideouts in pre-NFL Draft Underdog contests. Jalen Coker and Rashid Shaheed were also among my most-targeted wideouts in those contests, and, as evidenced by my roster percentages on McLaurin, Shakir, Coker and Shaheed, I’m still targeting them.

DJ Moore‘s arrival in Buffalo isn’t the same as Stefon Diggs‘ arrival before the 2020 season. Moore just turned 29 years old in the middle of April, and Diggs was 27 when he joined the Bills. Diggs was also coming off a hyper-efficient 2019 season, and Moore’s final season in Chicago was lousy.

Having said that, Moore is also only two years removed from a career year. Among 100 wide receivers with at least 250 routes in the 2023 regular season and playoffs, Moore was third in route participation rate (89.8%), fifth in air yards share (42.2%), tied for 12th in target share (25.9%), 10th in receiving yards per game (80.2), tied for 11th in yards per route run (2.46), tied for 11th in first downs per route run rate (0.115), ninth in half-PPR points per game (14.1) and tied for 21st in expected half-PPR points per game (13.9).

Moore’s career year came with Justin Fields starting 13 games and undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent starting four and making one relief appearance for an injured Fields. The veteran wideout’s production cratered in Caleb Williams‘ putrid rookie season, and after offensive whiz Ben Johnson invested the 10th pick and the 39th pick, Chicago’s first two picks, in the 2025 NFL Draft on hand-selected passing-game weapons.

Williams didn’t do Moore any favors in the quarterback’s breakout sophomore season, either. Fantasy Points credited Moore with 97 targets in 2025, and 19 of them (19.6%) were deemed uncatchable. Among 38 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks in the 2025 regular season and postseason, Williams was 31st in off-target throw percentage (19%) and 31st in catchable throw percentage (69.1%). Meanwhile, Allen was 11th in off-target throw percentage (14.8%) and first in catchable throw percentage (79.8%). Moore can rebound after back-to-back disappointing seasons with a change of scenery to a more accurate quarterback.

Ladd McConkey is my bet for Herbert’s pass-catcher who will benefit the most from better health along the offensive line. As I wrote back in January, when analyzing bounceback candidates, McConkey had the following numbers in the four games that Alt played the majority of snaps:

91.3% route participation rate
9.0-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
23.7% air yards share
23.3% target share
0.21 targets per route run (TPRR)
28.9% first-read rate
31 targets (7.8 per game)
21 receptions (5.3 per game)
251 receiving yards (62.8 per game)
1.72 yards per route run (YPRR)
1 touchdown
1 end-zone target
10.4 half-PPR points per game
13.6 expected half-PPR points per game

Additionally, McConkey had brutal matchups during that four-game sample. I’m willing to give him a pass for his sophomore slump.

Skyler Bell‘s roster percentage is more about structural preferences and my Allen roster percentage than about an expectation that Bell will immediately take the NFL by storm.

I prefer to only pick two quarterbacks on most of my Allen teams, and on two-quarterback rosters, I aim to draft at least two stacking partners. My rationale is straightforward. Two-quarterback rosters are competing with three-quarterback teams to come out of their pods, and they’re also competing with them in the finals. The two-quarterback teams need one or both of their quarterbacks to play at a high level to get the best of the three-quarterback squads, and that likely means posting big numbers as passers and carrying more than one pass-catching option with them.

Tight Ends

Obviously, Dalton Kincaid is a viable stacking option with Josh Allen. However, the fourth-year pro is also an outstanding one-off pick. Kincaid was extremely efficient in a limited role last season while nursing a PCL injury. There were 45 tight ends who ran at least 200 routes in the regular season and playoffs last year, and Kincaid had the following rankings:

Fifth in average depth of target (9.1-yard aDOT)
Eighth in air yards share (18.2%)
First in targets per route run (0.27)
First in yards per route run (3.04)
Tied for sixth in touchdown receptions (seven)
First in first downs per route run (0.147)
First in expected half-PPR points per route run (0.46)

Kincaid had just a 45.7% route participation rate in 14 games. His blocking limitations and the presence of Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes, both superior blockers, will likely cap Kincaid’s playing time. Nevertheless, even a slight uptick in playing time and a higher pass rate from the Bills can result in Kincaid smashing his ADP.

AJ Barner isn’t a speedster, but he’s a plus athlete.

The second-year tight end is also an asset as a blocker. Pro Football Focus (PFF) graded Barner 15th out of 78 tight ends with at least 150 blocking snaps in run blocking and 30th in pass blocking. Gamers won’t get fantasy points for blocking reps, but Barner’s blocking ability will help him stay on the field.

Circling back to his athleticism, the Seahawks are getting rewarded for banking on it translating to the passing attack, even though Barner never reached 30 receptions or 250 receiving yards in a collegiate season. Per PFF, Barner’s college highs were 49 targets (2022), 28 receptions (2022), 249 receiving yards (2023) and three receiving touchdowns (2022). Barner made strides from his rookie season to his sophomore campaign. Essentially, Barner is a more exciting version of the “at least he’s on the field for a high snap share” archetype of tight end since he might have more untapped potential.

Barner didn’t blossom into a game-changing receiver in his sophomore campaign. Still, he took a meaningful step forward from a nondescript rookie season after being largely a non-factor in the passing game during his collegiate career. Barner would be a fairly priced tight end, even if he doesn’t take another step forward in his third professional season. He can outkick his ADP if he takes another step forward.

Colston Loveland turned heads at the end of his rookie campaign. I wrote about him as a player to target in Underdog best ball drafts earlier this month. As I noted in that piece, in Loveland’s final 14 games of the 2025 season, he scored 11.1 half-PPR points per game, with an expected 11.6 half-PPR points. Only four tight ends who played at least eight games in 2025 cleared 11.1 half-PPR points per game.

Moreover, Loveland scored 16.5 half-PPR points per game, with 19.5 expected half-PPR points per game in his final four games last season. Trey McBride‘s 14.9 half-PPR points per game were the most among tight ends with at least eight games played last season. The overall TE1 finish is in Loveland’s range of outcomes.

Tucker Kraft is a baller. He was the TE2 in half-PPR points per game (12.6) among tight ends with at least eight games played in 2025. Unfortunately, his season was cut short when he tore his ACL in Week 9. Kraft is the TE5 in ADP at 82.2, which is an entirely reasonable injury discount.

Juwan Johnson also warrants a shoutout from the tight ends I’ve drafted the most. Johnson had the following stats in Tyler Shough‘s nine starts:

71.2% route participation rate
8.4-yard aDOT
17.1% air yards share
16.3% target share
0.20 TPRR
5.4 targets per game
41 receptions (4.6 per game)
521 receiving yards (57.9 per game)
2.11 YPRR
2 receiving touchdowns
0.085 first downs per route run
9.3 half-PPR points per game
8.7 expected half-PPR points per game

Johnson’s 9.3 half-PPR points per game in Shough’s starts would have ranked as the TE9 among tight ends with at least eight games played last year.

Johnson is also in an excellent fantasy environment. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Saints played at the fastest pace (24.6 seconds/snap) and tied for the fourth-most plays per 60 minutes (66) in Kellen Moore’s first year as their head coach.

The fast pace was great for Johnson in 2025. He ran the fourth-most routes (504) among tight ends in the 2025 regular season. As Rich Hribar noted in his write-up for McBride in his tight end tiers piece for Sharp Football Analysis, fantasy points are more strongly correlated with routes run at tight end than at wide receiver. The Saints signed Noah Fant in free agency and drafted tight end Oscar Delp in the third round of the 2026 NFL Draft. Still, Johnson should be unchallenged as the team’s top tight end.