SerpApi.Org
Odysseus and his men may have been helpless against Poseidon's storms, but there's no doubt that "The Odyssey" has all the favorable winds it could want. After a $263 million global opening, all signs point to a strong second weekend driven by repeat viewings, Nolan fans who still haven't seen the film yet, and casual audiences drawn in by its word-of-mouth.
Domestically, "The Odyssey" added $18.7 million on Monday -- the best Monday total to date this year -- and $21 million on Tuesday to bring its domestic total to $163 million after five full days of theatrical play. Based on these numbers, which were boosted by advance ticket sales for Imax 70mm and other premium formats, rival studios and theatrical sources tell TheWrap that "The Odyssey" is heavily favored to keep its second weekend drop below 50% and perhaps even below 40% with a weekend total of at least $70 million.
How far it gets above that baseline will be determined by how strong walkup traffic will be for premium format screenings at off-peak hours over the weekend as well as sales for evening screenings on standard digital formats, which made less than half of the domestic grosses for opening weekend. But Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango, said it's unlikely but not out of the realm of possibility that "The Odyssey" could earn a domestic second weekend that tops the $82.4 million opening weekend of "Oppenheimer" in 2023.
"It's so tricky to gauge how high this weekend can go because there's such big demand for premium formats, and not just Imax 70mm," Robbins said. "It gets to the point where we have to ask at what point do people who want to see the film on premium formats decide to wait until later weekends or mid-week to see it in better seats rather than in the front rows."
It certainly helps "The Odyssey" that there's no major competition coming out this weekend, as the big studios steered well clear of this release slot stuck between Nolan's epic and Sony/Marvel Studios' "Spider-Man: Brand New Day," which is looking at a $200 million-plus opening on the weekend of July 31. The only significant wide release this weekend is Bleecker Street's proshot of the Tony-winning Broadway musical "Hadestown," which will be released in 1,977 locations for a five-day limited engagement.
But "Oppenheimer" has already demonstrated that Nolan films hold exceptionally well. After that $82.4 million opening, the Best Picture winner went on to achieve a 4x domestic multiple and a $330 million total, a remarkable achievement for an R-rated film without a pop culture IP hook to boost it. With critical acclaim and "Barbenheimer" memes fueling weeks of theatrical play, "Oppenheimer" did not have a drop of more than 50% until its 11th weekend at the end of September, which was also its first weekend with a total below $1 million.
And like "Oppenheimer," "The Odyssey" will have the advantage of a light August slate. Bruce Nash, owner of Nash Information Systems and The Numbers — whose model is currently predicting a lower baseline for "The Odyssey" with a $55 million-plus second weekend — projected that only one film next month, Warner Bros.' thriller "The End of Oak Street," will open to more than $30 million.
Even if "Spider-Man" and the loss of some premium formats results in a larger third weekend drop, there has been one constant that we've seen with movies that open with the levels of widespread excitement that "The Odyssey" has elicited from audiences: they stick around for a long time.
Look at "Top Gun: Maverick" and "Sinners," two films that legged out for weeks on end after earning "definite recommend" scores of 84% on PostTrak. "Obsession," the leggiest film of this summer, earned a 70% "definite recommend" on PostTrak, standing among the highest results for an R-rated horror film polled by the Rentrak/Screen Engine audience survey. "The Odyssey" earned an 81% "definite recommend" this past weekend.
It's not surprising given that the film, particularly during its final act, is a true crowd pleaser. Over the weekend, owners of several independent theaters screening the film in 70mm, like the Grand Lake Theatre in Oakland and the Oriental Theatre in Milwaukee, told TheWrap that screening after screening saw the audience break into applause as Antinous and Polybus, the conniving suitors played by Robert Pattinson and Corey Hawkins, got their comeuppance at the hands of Odysseus.
It's a memorable climax that will likely define the word-of-mouth around "The Odyssey" among moviegoers in the weeks to come. Whether it is Inde Navarette and Jaafar Jackson's performances in "Obsession" and "Michael," the charming alien antics of Rocky in "Project Hail Mary" or the relationship between Nick and Judy in "Zootopia 2," the biggest hit films don't just have strong audience scores but have something specific in them that make early moviegoers tell their friends and family, "You have to go see this."
But it's not the only element going for the film, as performances such as Anne Hathaway as Odysseus' resilient wife Penelope and Samantha Morton as the witch Circe have also stood out.
"For some people, 'The Odyssey' is an adventure or a light horror film. For others, it's a love story. It's just one of those films that is playing to a wide range of people for a wide range of reasons," Robbins said.
We will have a better grasp of how well "The Odyssey" will leg out in August after "Brand New Day" comes out, but if it can hold on against Spidey, it could match the 4x multiple of "Oppenheimer" and stretch to $500 million domestically and $1.2 billion worldwide. Even if it doesn't, Robbins thinks a floor of $400 million domestic and $1 billion global is increasingly likely, becoming the first non-"Dark Knight" film from Christopher Nolan to reach both thresholds.
"I think going into the summer, we expected that 'Toy Story 5,' 'Spider-Man' and 'The Odyssey' were going to be the top 3 for the season, it's just that we really couldn't put a number on any of those films," he said. "Now, while they are all spaced out, I think it's clear that three of the biggest films of the year are going to coexist alongside each other."
The post 'The Odyssey' Will Have a Massive Second Weekend appeared first on TheWrap.
