SerpApi.Org
BERLIN, GERMANY - Over a week since the renewal of fighting in Iran, the United States’ mission in the Middle East has apparently shifted. American forces bombed targets in Iran’s northwest and southwest and launched munitions at targets at Bandar Imam Khomeini and Bushehr along Iran’s Persian Gulf coast. Iran launched projectiles at American forces throughout the region as well, and Bahrain and Kuwait said they intercepted munitions launched by Iran. Several commercial tankers were struck as well within the Strait of Hormuz.
Although there had been a lull in the fighting that had torn Iran apart, several developments conspired to end the brief agreement. The deal catalyzed by the United States between Israel and Lebanon left out any mention of Iran. There was no thaw to Iranian frozen assets, and with numerous American military assets arriving in the Middle East, Tehran may have felt pressured to alter the previous balance of power while it could. In parallel, a number of tanker ships managed to sail out of the strait without using the procedure or routes dictated by Iran.
A Pivot to Safe Shipping
But stymied in finding a quick solution on the battlefield, Washington now appears to be changing course, shifting from the initially desired toppling of the Iranian government to a new goal that would, if realized, help the global economy with its high oil price problem.
“We did a pause to try to get an agreement with the Iranian people to allow oil to flow without them attacking it,” Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said during an interview with ABC News. “They’ve proven unwilling to do that, and we’ve pivoted,” he added. “Now, what we’re doing is assuring that that oil and gas and other products can flow through the Strait of Hormuz with or without Iranian cooperation, and we’ve continued to degrade their offensive military capabilities.”
Secretary Wright added that oil would now flow through the Strait of Hormuz even without the explicit agreement of Iran, which would in all likelihood not be forthcoming.
“We needed four to six weeks for military action. They went for five and a half weeks. We did a pause to try to get an agreement with the Iranian people to allow oil to flow without them attacking it,” the secretary explained in reference to the memorandum of understanding agreed to by Washington and Tehran, an agreement that is, for all intents and purposes, dead.
Mounting American Casualties
Three more American service members were reportedly killed in blasts that rocked American military installations throughout the Middle East, bringing the total number of troops killed since the beginning of hostilities with Iran, which started in late February, to 17. The latest three casualties occurred in Jordan, during an attack, and in Iraq, during what may have been an explosive ordnance disposal mishap.
Earlier this month, Iran commemorated the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the former Supreme Leader of Iran, with processions through some of Iran’s leading cities. There was seemingly a large show of public support from the Iranian population, which may have motivated Tehran to fire on several tanker ships transiting the strait — and the subsequent American bombardment.
The Angle in Yemen
The Houthis, the Iran-backed rebel group in Yemen, announced that they would blockade Saudi Arabian ports, describing the action as “a maritime embargo against the criminal Saudi enemy,” during a speech that was broadcast on television. The Houthis launched missiles at Saudi Arabia earlier last week, and it was the first against Saudi Arabia by the rebel group since March 2022, when an informal agreement was reached that paused fighting between the two. It is the last sign that the conflagration over Iran is intensifying and bringing in other parties besides Washington and Tehran.
A Game of Chicken
While Iran may believe that it can raise costs to the United States — and, indeed, to the rest of the world — by stymying efforts to get oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a move that has already increased the cost of fuel at the pump.
Iran’s bet is that it can absorb more pain than the United States can by digesting this latest round of strikes and keeping a stopper on the strait.
The American blockade of Iran’s ports is sure to cause hardship within Iran, but perhaps not enough to change the country’s leadership or the situation on the ground. At the moment, the war has entered a new phase, one in which Iran and the United States are locked together, trying to exert their will over the other.
It is unclear which grappler will tap out first.
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war's shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war's civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
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