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Houthi Threats Are Already Diverting Ships From the Red Sea: The Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen has not physically sealed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Yet, the mere threat of a Houthi blockade of the Red Sea region has been enough to send shockwaves through an already skittish international shipping market.
Multiple vessels have reversed course or sought alternative routes away from the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb rather than risk transiting one of the world’s most strategically important waterways (a waterway that has only risen in importance since the Iranians imposed a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz).
The development is a clear escalation in the regional war, emphasizing the growing importance of these tensions for global stability and security.
Naturally, international attention remains fixated on Iran’s efforts to blockade the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). Still, some are starting to pay attention to the Houthis’ threats, which could directly affect regional stability and energy supplies that matter to your interests.
And the Houthis are adding to the conflagration with their threats (which, of course, is the point).
Ships Turning Around
Commercial shipping companies immediately responded to the Houthi threats by retreating from the important waterway off the Yemeni coast.
Reuters reports that several vessels have changed course after the Houthis warned shipping companies to avoid Saudi ports and threatened maritime traffic associated with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Houthis’ longtime foe. Indeed, three Saudi oil tankers bound for China and India reversed course rather than continue toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
More ships followed suit, including Chinese ships. These vessels opted to take the longer (and more expensive) Suez Canal route.
The European Union’s Operation Aspides naval mission warned ships with commercial links to Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Israel that they faced elevated risks while operating in the southern Red Sea and even the Gulf of Aden. Operators were advised to reduce their electronic signatures where possible in an effort to complicate Houthi targeting, per Reuters.
Global shippers are clearly taking the Houthi threats seriously. After all, the Houthis possess an arsenal of devastating weapons that could not only stop global shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb, but could also sink ships.
Why the Bab el-Mandeb Matters
Since the start of the Iran War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has deftly diverted its critical energy flows away from the SoH and toward its ports in the Red Sea. From there, Saudi ships take these important supplies to the world market via the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. But that strait has basically become the main lifeline keeping the Saudi government afloat at a time when many other Arab states are experiencing pain due to the Iranian closure of the SoH.
Looking at the ongoing closure of the SoH, as well as the possible shutdown of the Bab el-Mandeb, the world could quickly experience seven percent of all global oil supplies being disrupted.
Not only is that bad for Saudi Arabia, but it hurts the US economy, too.
Economic Effects Begin Before Any Attack
It’s important to understand why the global shipping firms are so much more jittery than their colleagues in the global energy markets (which, despite some price increases with oil, remain unfazed by these developments in Yemen). Global shippers operate on a risk management model rather than certainty.
Shipowners cannot afford to wait for Houthi missiles to start flying. They must adapt now. The world’s shippers are again implementing this diversionary process. It will be time-consuming. It will be costly.
Will Saudi Arabia Attack?
Saudi Arabia has already warned the Houthis that it might respond militarily if the Shiite militia enforces its blockade. The Houthis, who have already endured nearly a decade of brutal Saudi warfare inflicted upon them, appear undaunted. Although it’s important to remember they’ve not actually enforced the blockade. They’ve merely announced its implementation.
But the Houthis have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to employ relatively inexpensive drones, cruise missiles, and anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) to stymie shipping in the Red Sea region successfully. Their objective has generally been disruption rather than outright control of the sea.
That’s more than enough to scare away global shippers, though.
Welcome to the New Phase of the Iran War
The latest shipping diversions illustrate how modern maritime warfare initiates long before the first shots are fired at ships. The Houthis have already issued their threats. Shipping companies are taking them at their word and changing their routes. European naval authorities have elevated warnings. Indeed, tankers carrying Saudi crude have already reversed course.
Whether the Houthis ultimately carry out sustained attacks is almost becoming a secondary question.
The strategic effect is already visible. As more commercial shippers avoid the Bab el-Mandeb on the mere threat of attack, another crucial artery of the already blocked global commerce system is made unreliable.
Combined with continuing instability in the SoH, the result is growing pressure on international energy markets and another reminder that control of maritime chokepoints remains one of the decisive factors shaping the wider Middle East conflict.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is Senior National Security Editor. He also manages The Weichert Brief on Substack. Weichert also hosts “National Security Talk” on Rumble. He is the author of four bestselling national security books, the most recent of which is A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine (Encounter Books). Follow him via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.
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