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Tesla's second-quarter earnings report will provide insights into the state of the core business — but it's the company's future that investors will be focused on more than ever.
Why it matters: After the SpaceX IPO, investors are watching closely for any signs that Elon Musk plans to merge Tesla with SpaceX or keep it independent.
- "The stock is increasingly being valued on robotaxi and humanoid developments rather than core auto fundamentals — with a potential SpaceX acquisition adding a premium to our valuation," wrote Tom Narayan, global autos lead equity analyst at RBC Capital Markets.
The big picture: It is becoming increasingly clear that Musk's business empire — long viewed as disparate businesses competing for his attention — is in fact one enterprise, largely devoted to the pursuit of AI.
- Musk has always bristled at the description of Tesla as a car company, preferring to emphasize its investments in its Optimus humanoid robot and its Cybercab self-driving car service.
- With Tesla investing in a massive chip fabrication facility and SpaceX becoming a powerhouse for AI compute capacity, the business case for combining the two companies looks increasingly sensible.
Zoom in: Expect Musk to focus Wednesday's earnings call largely on where Tesla is headed.
- "Strong auto and energy deliveries improve near-term fundamentals, but we continue to believe Robotaxi and Optimus will be the primary drivers for the stock," Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote.
The intrigue: The post-Iran war surge of gas prices has been helpful to EV sales, providing critical cash flow for Tesla's AI investments.
- Morgan Stanley raised its 2026 Tesla vehicle sales forecast to 1.67 million units from 1.57 million and upped its 2027 forecast to 1.86 million from 1.82 million.
- Autos still represent about 70% of the company's revenue.
- "Stability in this core segment ... is crucial to afford investors the flexibility to place higher probabilities on Tesla's success in ... physical AI (Robotaxi and Optimus)," Jonas wrote.
What to watch: Updates on Tesla's self-driving car service in Austin, which is off to a slow start, falling far short of Musk's projections of where it would be by now.
- Investors will also want updates on the production timeline for the Optimus humanoid.
