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Tesla Inc. TSLA reports second-quarter earnings after the bell Wednesday, but beyond whether the EV maker beats estimates, prediction-market traders are betting on something else entirely: which words CEO Elon Musk will say on the earnings call.
“Cybercab” and “Robotaxi” are near locks at 98%. The first steering-wheel-less unit rolled off the Giga Texas line in February, continuous production began in April, and the robotaxi service reached seven cities across three states after Orlando and Tampa went live Tuesday, just 18 days after Miami.
Yet not one of those robotaxis is a Cybercab. The fleet remains entirely Model Ys, a gap investor Gary Black pointed to Tuesday, noting Musk once promised robotaxis would serve half the U.S. population by the end of 2025.
Gambling On Grok
Traders put 60% odds on “Grok” coming up at least three times, a day after Tesla announced the xAI chatbot will control calls, music and climate in its cars.
“SpaceX / xAI” trades at 87%, but “Merge / Merger” sits at just 34%. Traders expect Musk to name the companies while keeping the M-word off the call, a task made easier by SpaceX’s slide since its June IPO.
“Terafab” sits at 84%, more than double “Intel” at 39%. Musk has said the Austin chip complex will run on Intel’s INTC 14A process, reportedly making Tesla the first major customer named for the technology, yet traders expect him to say the project’s name before his partner’s.
“Megapack 3” trades at 78%. The next-generation grid battery is due to start shipping from Tesla’s new Houston factory later this year. With the energy division deploying a record 13.5 gigawatt-hours of storage last quarter, analysts will likely press for a ramp update.
What Kalshi Predicts The Call Will Skip
“Six-Seater” sits at just 36%, even though the six-seat Model Y L launched in the U.S. on July 2 at $61,990. It is the freshest product news Tesla has going into the call, and traders still doubt it gets a mention.
“Safety Monitor” trades at 22%. Tesla launched Miami with nobody in the front seat at all, a first for the program, yet traders expect management to treat its biggest operational leap as unremarkable.
Reading The Board
Tesla sold a record 480,126 cars last quarter. Tonight reveals how much money it made on them.
Options traders are pricing a 5.76% move on the results, their biggest bet on a Tesla earnings night since October, though still below the stock’s long-run average swing of 9%. One options strategist told CNBC the SpaceX question is weighing on the stock, with traders unsure which one to own and whether the two will merge.
Analysts suspect the record deliveries were fueled by price cuts, with Wells Fargo warning that higher numbers may be offset by pricing pressure, so the number to watch is profit margin on the car business. Margins holding steady would mean the deliveries were real strength, but a weaker print may suggest discounting drove the volume.
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This article Tesla Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Elon Musk Say? originally appeared on Benzinga.com.
