Tarik Skubal trade watch: Prediction market odds just flipped on Tigers’ superstar

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You’re never going to guess which team is the favorite to land the services of Tarik Skubal if he moves on from the Detroit Tigers.

Wouldn’t you know, it’s the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The two-time defending World Series champions are currently atop the board at Kalshi, one of the world’s leading prediction markets, with a 30-percent chance to be Skubal’s next team, putting them well ahead of the right-hander’s current employers, the Detroit Tigers.

Detroit is currently trading at 20 percent.

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It is worth noting that this market has a resolution date of March 25, 2027, so it would include the offseason if Skubal isn’t traded at the deadline.

More necessary context is that this is a pretty nascent market, with just $85,000 in trading volume as of July 22. So these prices could shift dramatically as the money piles up.

Perhaps most intriguing, Skubal also has a 55 percent chance of being traded at all in a separate market posted to the prediction market exchange.

As of Monday, those odds were as low as 31.7 percent as of Monday, and there is currently $66,256 being traded on this market.

That said, speculators at Kalshi believe that it is more likely than not that the two-time defending Cy Young Award winner will be dealt before 6 p.m. ET on Aug. 3.

Kalshi offers a Yes/No market on whether or not a particular player will be dealt before the deadline passes. Skubal is currently trading at 56 percent to get traded, making him the second-most likely name to be swapped, behind only San Francisco Giants second baseman Luis Arraez, who is sitting with a whopping 92-percent chance to be sent elsewhere.

Meanwhile, The Post’s Jon Heyman reported that it is unlikely that Detroit will deal its ace before the deadline, but it’s even less likely that the Tigers will be able to keep the impending free agent beyond this season.

Detroit is on the fringes of the playoff race, but given how wide-open the AL Central is, a 6.5-game deficit to the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians doesn’t seem all that insurmountable for the Tigers, who were the favorites to win the division before Opening Day.

The Tigers are five games back of the Red Sox, who currently hold the final wild-card spot in the American League.

If Detroit shrinks that gap before the deadline, Skubal’s chances of sticking in MoTown increase dramatically. Of course, the opposite is true if the Tigers fall further adrift.

In a bygone era, the Yankees would be at the front of the line for a player of Skubal’s ilk, but the market doesn’t seem to believe that Brian Cashman will be in the running for the two-time Cy Young Award winner’s services.

The Pinstripes are currently trading at 8 percent, putting them behind teams like the Atlanta Braves (14 percent, Milwaukee Brewers (14 percent), Tampa Bay Rays (13 percent), Philadelphia Phillies (12 percent), Chicago White Sox (12 percent), and Chicago Cubs (10 percent).

With a rotation that already features Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Gerrit Cole, and Carlos Rodon, it’s expected the Yankees will do their shopping elsewhere.

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.

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