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The MLB trade deadline is now less than two weeks away (Monday, Aug. 3 at 6 p.m. ET). Now that last weekend's draft is in the books, front offices have shifted into deadline mode. Expect the trades to begin soon and continue right up to the last minute.
Last week, we laid out some bold predictions for the second half of the regular season. Here now are our bold predictions for the trade deadline specifically. Come with me, won't you?
The Tigers will still trade Tarik Skubal
The Tigers have the American League's second-best record since June 1 and that has gotten them to within shouting distance of a wild-card spot. Despite a larger deficit, they may have a better shot at the postseason via the AL Central title because there are fewer teams to jump. Either way, the Tigers dug themselves a pretty big hole early in the season, and it'll take several more weeks to climb out of it -- if they can.
Because the postseason is still no slam dunk, I boldly predict president of baseball operations Scott Harris -- who is pragmatic, possibly to a fault -- will go ahead and trade two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal at the deadline even after the team's recent hot streak. The ruthless, cold-hearted baseball move is trading him for multiple young players rather than keeping him for what is still a not-great shot at a postseason berth, only to lose him for nothing but a draft pick in free agency.
To me, the Braves need Skubal the most, though just about every contender "needs" this guy. I think he'll wind up with the Dodgers because they're motivated to three-peat, so much so that they might step out of their comfort zone and do something irrational, plus they have a rich farm system. They don't have room for all these outfield prospects, you know? The point is, Skubal is going. The Tigers' recent excellent play won't change that.
The Cubs will add multiple Mets pitchers
Earlier this month, the Cubs had a full 13-man pitching staff on the injured list. They expect to get some of those guys back soon-ish, but not all of them, so pitching reinforcements are a must at the deadline. The ready-to-sellMets could own the pitching market thanks to their rental starters (Clay Holmes, Freddy Peralta), rental relievers (A.J. Minter, Brooks Raley), and controllable relievers (Huascar Brazoban, Luke Weaver). The Cubs and Mets are a trade partner match made in deadline heaven.
This next bold prediction says these two teams will indeed hook up for a deadline trade, with multiple Mets pitchers landing on the North Side. Peralta is an obvious one, given his connection to manager Craig Counsell from their days with the Brewers. Let's add Brazoban and either Minter or Raley to the mix, too, so three Mets pitchers to the Cubs for a package of however many young players/prospects they can get. It has been foretold.
The Giants will extend Luis Arraez, not trade him
It has been a terrible season for the Giants, but giving Luis Arraez that one-year deal worth $12 million has proven to be a masterstroke. He's having his best offensive season in years and is playing the best second base defense of his career. Cashing him as a trade chip is a no-brainer. Instead, I boldly predict that president of baseball operations Buster Posey will pivot and instead sign Arraez to an extension. Let's call it three years in the $15 million-per-year range. Rental lefty Robbie Ray will be traded, for sure (Diamondbacks? Phillies? Rangers?), but Arraez stays put with an extension.
The Mariners will break up their six-man rotation
Having six good starters is a luxury, not a problem, though it has made for some clunky pitching schedules and roster decisions. The Mariners badly need more offense and trading a starter could get them that offense, and it's made easier by having two top pitching prospects (Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan) around as depth. Luis Castillo is the oldest and most expensive of Seattle's starters and thus the obvious one to move, even if they have to pay down some salary to do it. I predict that Castillo will be traded before the deadline. As for where, how do the Marlins sound?
The Padres will sell, but will keep Miller
Things are trending south for the Padres, who've had one of baseball's lowest scoring offenses all year and are now watching their pitching begin to crumble. You can never rule out president of baseball operations A.J. Preller doing something aggressive and/or irrational, though it's becoming clear San Diego should sell at the deadline. My next bold prediction says yes, the Padres will sell, but they won't go all the way and trade all-world closer Mason Miller. Rental relievers Jason Adam and Adrian Morejon will be dealt, maybe even Michael King, but Miller will stay put. Preller's goal will be to retool around Miller and contend next year, not start a full-blown rebuild.
The Yankees will make at least five trades
One thing you can never say about the Yankees is that they're inactive at the trade deadline. When they have needs, they attack them, or at least make an effort to attack them. (That said, their hit rate on deadline deals hasn't been great over the last few years.) The Yankees made seven trades at the deadline in 2025, three in 2024, five in 2022, and four in 2021. That makes my next bold prediction feel not terribly bold: New York will make at least five trades between now and the deadline. And, to be clear, I mean trades that add players to their MLB roster, not minor-league shuffles. They'll bring in a catcher, two relievers, a bench guy, and something else entirely. A busy deadline in New York is a comin'.
The White Sox will bring in a controllable starter
Two years ago the White Sox lost a modern-record 121 games. Now they're in contention for an AL Central title. They arrived ahead of schedule, and when that happens, front offices can get nervous about deviating from the long-term plan and buying at the trade deadline. At the same time, you're in the division race, and you have to honor that. There's a way to buy without blowing up the long-term vision and my next bold prediction says the ChiSox will do that by adding a controllable starter who becomes part of the core. Reid Detmers would be the ideal pickup, though you can't count on the Angels to do what they should and sell.
The Blue Jays will trade three of their four big rentals
Three of these four, specifically: Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman, George Springer, and Daulton Varsho. My hunch is the Blue Jays want to keep and extend Gausman, not trade him. Bieber is getting better as he gets further away from his elbow injury and will have value. So too will Springer, despite being close to a DH only. Varsho strikes me as a slam-dunk trade candidate as a terrific center-field defender with power. At this point, it's getting harder and harder to see the Blue Jays making the kind of run they need to make to return to the postseason. So, they'll sell, I boldly predict, with three of their four big-name rentals moving. Gausman stays, the rest go.
The Rays will trade one starter, then add another
This is what the Rays do, right? They buy and sell at the same time to keep the machine moving. Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen both have one year of control remaining, and that is when Tampa tends to trade its best guys. Given his age (31 later this week) and injury history (two Tommy John surgeries and the internal brace procedure), I suspect Rasmussen is more likely to take a team-friendly extension than McClanahan. That makes McClanahan the trade candidate in the first half of this bold prediction. The other half of it says the Rays will bring in a starter to backfill innings. Not a big name, necessarily. Think an Adrian Houser type like last deadline.
The Cardinals will buy, but not aggressively
Similar to the White Sox, the Cardinals arrived ahead of schedule and are in the wild-card race. The fan base is less than pleased after three straight postseason-less seasons. When you're in the race like the Cardinals are, you have to honor that and make an effort to contend. My final bold prediction says the Cardinals will buy rather than sell players like Dustin May and Lars Nootbaar. POBO Chaim Bloom won't buy too aggressively, though, at least not enough to threaten his long-term plan. Figure a rental starter, maybe a reliever, and that's it. Small additions, but additions nonetheless. Bloom will add despite (probably) wanting to sell.
