SerpApi.Org
Putin Wants All Of Donbas, But Can Russia Afford It?: Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly abandoned any willingness to make territorial concessions in Ukraine - if indeed that willingness even exists - and is now insisting that Russia capture all of Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast before agreeing to a peace settlement. The hardening of the Kremlin’s position comes at a truly remarkable time in the war, when gains on the front line are slowing, and both countries’ cities come under sustained attack.
Overnight into Tuesday, July 22, Russia continued its long-range missile and drone campaign against Ukrainian cities while Ukraine once again struck targets deep inside Russia.
According to a report by Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the Kremlin’s thinking, Moscow is no longer considering returning any occupied territory and intends to do all it can to retain occupied areas around Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts as a buffer zone.
The report says that Putin abandoned the idea of territorial concessions after concluding that any informal understandings reached with the United States had collapsed. Meanwhile, intensifying Ukrainian strikes against Russian infrastructure add urgency to the Russian president’s plans, as the U.S. even changes its tune and plans even tougher sanctions to push Putin to end the war.
What Putin Said
Citing three people close to the Kremlin, Bloomberg reported on July 22 that Russia is “no longer willing to return some occupied territories to Ukraine” as part of a deal that would end the war. The sources claimed that Putin has “abandoned” the possibility of territorial concessions because Russia views recent U.S. statements as evidence that any “informal understandings” made during the Alaska summit have collapsed.
According to the report, Russia’s Defense Ministry has assured President Putin that the objective of taking full control of Donetsk Oblast can be achieved by the end of 2026. However, another source close to the ministry also said that many military officials disagree with the assessment and believe that Russia cannot fully capture the region until at least sometime in 2027.
The news is significant, suggesting that the Kremlin plans to keep raising, rather than lowering, its negotiating demands even as Ukraine proves it is capable of causing major damage through its long-range strike campaign.
Instead of accepting the current front line as a basis for future talks, which could see Russia ending the conflict with some territorial gains, the Kremlin is reportedly making complete control of Donetsk a prerequisite for a settlement.
It is believable, too, given that the Kremlin has shown zero willingness to negotiate even as Ukraine puts extreme pressure on the country’s economy from multiple angles.
The War Has Moved Beyond the Front Line
While Russian forces continue making slow advances around Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka and other parts of Donetsk Oblast, both sides are now trying to exert pressure by launching long-range strikes hundreds of miles from the front.
Ukraine has spent the past year steadily expanding its long-range strike campaign, starting by proving it can hit strategic targets with its famed Operation Spider’s Web, and expanding into attacks on Russian oil refineries, logistics hubs, rail infrastructure, warehouses, ammunition depots, and more. Kyiv’s recent attacks have hit Russia’s 10 biggest oil refineries, put much of Moscow’s biggest refinery out of action until at least 2027, and are now risking a major economic crisis and food shortage as rural farmers are left unable to fuel their tractors, cars, and equipment.
Russia is responding in kind. Unable to force Ukraine to retreat on the battlefield, Moscow has dramatically increased the scale of its long-range missile and drone campaign, and is presently taking advantage of Kyiv’s much-publicized Patriot interceptor shortage. By launching ballistic missiles and Shahed-type drones at Ukrainian infrastructure, Putin hopes he can retaliate strongly enough that Kyiv rethinks its long-range campaign - or, perhaps, he is causing as much damage as he can ahead of a new escalation.
If Donbas Is Still the Goal…
If Bloomberg’s reporting is accurate, then Putin’s next move will be one of the most important of the war. Long-range missile and drone attacks can inflict enormous damage on Ukrainian cities, but they are unlikely to persuade Kyiv to abandon its deep-strike campaign unless they make it literally impossible to continue. Russian ballistic missile strikes are also unlikely to convince Western governments to reduce military support or reverse the economic pressures that are now building inside Russia.
If the Kremlin is serious about occupying all of Donetsk Oblast, it will ultimately need more than strategic bombing. It will need a military initiative capable of drawing Ukrainian troops away from the eastern front and creating the conditions for a major breakthrough. Whether that means a new offensive, another mobilization, or an entirely different escalation is unclear. But what we do know is that trading long-range strikes while the front line changes only marginally is unlikely to deliver the victory that Putin now appears to be demanding.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
Please follow National Security Journal on MSN for the latest news in defense, foreign policy, economics, and politics with a bipartisan twist.
