SerpApi.Org
A new poll of likely Michigan Democratic voters offers an early look at who could emerge as the party’s strongest contenders for the 2028 presidential nomination in one of the nation’s most important swing states.
The WDIV/Detroit News survey found former Vice President Kamala Harris leading the field with 25.1 percent support, followed by ex-Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 19.4 percent. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez placed third with 11.5 percent ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 10.1 percent, while Senators Cory Booker and Mark Kelly each received 8.3 percent support.
The results underscore Harris’ continued strength among Democratic voters, though they also point to a competitive primary field with several nationally known figures attracting support.
No candidate has formally announced their candidacy.
What To Know
According to the poll, Governors Wes Moore, Josh Shapiro and JB Pritzker all received under 5 percent, while 1.6 percent said they would pick someone else and 7.5 percent said it depends, don’t know or refused.
The poll, conducted by The Glengariff Group, Inc., surveyed 500 likely Democratic voters via a live-operator telephone survey, from July 8 to July 11 and has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.
Florida Atlantic University political professor Craig Agranoff told Newsweek Wednesday night via text that the poll is “Not entirely surprising, but it does tell us something interesting about where Michigan Democrats are at this early stage. Harris still carries the name recognition and institutional support from her time as vice president and the 2024 nominee, so leading the field at around 25% makes sense, especially with her strength among key parts of the base.
“What stands out to me is how close Pete Buttigieg is running in second. He’s got that Midwestern connection now living in Traverse City, he’s articulate, and he appeals to voters who want someone younger and more forward-looking without going too far left,” Agranoff added. “In a battleground state like Michigan, that kind of profile could be appealing as Democrats try to rebuild after 2024. This is all very preliminary of course. A lot can change between now and 2028, but the poll shows the party is still sorting through a mix of familiar faces and fresher options.”
Michigan’s importance makes the survey especially notable. The state has been among the nation’s premier battlegrounds in recent election cycles, and President Donald Trump carried it by just 1.4 percentage points over Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
With such narrow margins, Democrats are likely to closely monitor which prospective candidates resonate most with voters in the state as they begin shaping the party’s strategy for the next presidential race.
What Other Polls Show
The Michigan poll also comes as early national surveys continue to gauge the Democratic Party’s direction ahead of 2028.
In an Echelon Insights poll this month, Harris also leads the pack with 21 percent compared to Newsom’s 14 percent. Buttigieg has 13 percent, Ocasio-Cortez has 9 percent, Shapiro has 7 percent and Arizona’s Kelly has 4 percent. A slew of other potential candidates landed 3 percent and under. The poll also notes that 14 percent were unsure.
The survey polled 1,004 voters in the likely electorate from July 9 to July 13 and has a margin of error of 3.6 percent.
A Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll shows that Harris leads the group of potentials with 37 percent compared to Newsom’s 24 percent. Buttigieg has 10 percent in the poll, Shapiro and Ocasio-Cortez have 9 percent and Pritzker has 5 percent. The poll shows that 5 percent would pick someone else.
The poll was conducted on July 11 and July 12 among 1,776 registered voters, with a 2.3 percent margin of error.
What Potential Candidates Have Said
Harris told the Rev. Al Sharpton earlier this year that she is “thinking about it,” when asked if she’s considering a 2028 run.
David Axelrod, former adviser to ex-President Barack Obama, asked Ocasio-Cortez last month her thoughts on a potential run for the White House in 2028. The New York congresswoman said in part that she does not want to make decisions as a lawmaker with the idea of one day becoming a senator or president weighing in the back of her mind.
“My ambition is to change this country. Presidents come and go. Senate, House seats, elected officials come and go. But single-payer healthcare is forever. A living wage is forever, workers’ rights are forever, women’s rights, all of that, and so anyways … to a finer point to your question is that when you aren’t attached, right, when you haven’t been like fantasizing about being this or that since the time you were 7 years old, um, it is tremendously liberating.”
“I want to make decisions from a place of how are we going to change the country,” Ocasio-Cortez later said.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins.
Related Articles
