MLB DFS picks & underdog player props: Wednesday (7/22)
FantasyPros··5 min read
MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Wednesday (7/22)
Wednesday’s MLB DFS main slate features nine games on DraftKings and seven on FanDuel, with both slates starting at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Underdog selections are also from the night’s games. Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Assistant ... read more »
Wednesday’s MLB DFS main slate features nine games on DraftKings and seven on FanDuel, with both slates starting at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Underdog selections are also from the night’s games.
The red-hot Red Sox did a stellar Bryan Danielson impression in Griffin Jax‘s last start, kicking his head in for seven earned runs on eight hits (one homer) and one walk across five innings.
Nevertheless, Jax has excelled, successfully transitioning from the bullpen early in the year to the rotation. According to FanGraphs, Jax has rattled off the following stats in 15 starts spanning 66 innings in 2026:
4 wins
1 quality start
3.55 ERA
5.13 xERA
3.48 xFIP
3.69 SIERA
1.18 WHIP
7.1% walk rate
25% strikeout rate
13.8% SwStr%
30.3% CSW%
103 stuff+
105 location+
112 pitching+
Jax’s matchup is favorable, and his betting info is acceptable. The Blue Jays are tied for 23rd in wRC+ (95) with a 19% strikeout rate versus righties and tied for 21st in wRC+ (98) with a 20.6% strikeout rate at home in 2026.
Toronto is also tied for last in wRC+ (74) with a 19.3% strikeout rate in the previous 30 days. The Rays are -104 on the Moneyline, and the game’s total is eight runs.
Ranger Suarez isn’t a lock to start the second game of Boston’s doubleheader, but he’s a candidate to do so. Suarez has been outstanding for the Red Sox. In 17 starts totaling 91.1 innings, the 30-year-old southpaw has the following stats:
4 wins
7 quality starts
3.15 ERA
3.32 xERA
3.30 xFIP
3.59 SIERA
1.16 WHIP
6.9% walk rate
25.8% strikeout rate
10.4% SwStr%
27.6% CSW%
95 stuff+
106 location+
101 pitching+
Suarez has a decent matchup. The Orioles are 16th in wRC+ (96) with a 25.7% strikeout rate versus lefties and tied for 22nd in wRC+ (92) with a 26.6% strikeout rate on the road this year.
Baltimore is tied for eighth in wRC+ (106) with a 26% strikeout rate in the previous 30 days, which enhances the risk of using Suarez in his first start back from the injured list (IL). At the same time, the Orioles could sit a starter or two in the second game of a doubleheader, which could benefit Suarez.
Colin Rea isn’t a sexy pick by any stretch of the imagination. Having said that, he’s a rock-solid pitcher at home, and the betting info is encouraging.
In nine appearances (eight starts) at home in 2026, totaling 49 innings, Rea has a 2.94 ERA, 4.08 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP, 6.8% walk rate and 19.9% strikeout rate. Even if he pitches closer to his xFIP than his lucky ERA, Rea would be a reasonably attractive SP2 in all game types on DraftKings.
Rea has a decent matchup, too. The Tigers are 18th in wRC+ (99) with a 23.4% strikeout rate versus righties and tied for 17th in wRC+ (95) with a 23.2% strikeout rate on the road this season. Detroit is also tied for 13th in wRC+ (102) with a 23.7% strikeout rate in the previous 30 days. Thus, the Cubs are -115 favorites, and the game’s total is eight runs.
The Dodgers have a cushy matchup against Aaron Nola tonight. The 33-year-old righty has a putrid 5.68 ERA in 20 starts this year. His 4.20 xERA, 3.96 xFIP and 3.95 SIERA don’t mean much when he had a 6.01 ERA, 4.12 xERA, 3.71 xFIP and 3.81 SIERA in 17 starts in 2025.
Nola is what he is. He has coughed up a .358 wOBA to 180 right-handed batters and a .361 wOBA to 272 left-handed batters faced this season. Philadelphia’s bullpen is also tied for 22nd in ERA (4.38) this season, increasing the likelihood of the Dodgers exploding tonight.
Bailey Ober has sizable home-road splits that favor pitching at home. He’s a disaster on the road. In 30 innings on the road in 2026, Ober has a 6.90 ERA, 4.89 xFIP and 1.50 WHIP.
Ober has also surrendered a .325 wOBA to 174 left-handed batters and a .308 wOBA to 147 right-handed batters this season. Finally, Minnesota’s bullpen is 27th in ERA (5.11).
Shohei Ohtani has belted 95 bombs with a .415 on-base percentage (OBP), .352 ISO, .438 wOBA and 184 wRC+ in 1,258 plate appearances against righties since 2024.
Freddie Freeman has whacked 15 dingers with 52 runs, 51 RBI, three stolen bases, a .368 OBP, .188 ISO, .365 wOBA and 132 wRC+ in 429 plate appearances this season.
Travis Bazzana has hit nine homers with 34 runs, 33 RBI, 14 stolen bases, a .342 OBP, .172 ISO, .335 wOBA and 115 wRC+ in 304 plate appearances in his first taste of the Majors.
Value Plays/Punts
Chase DeLauter has had a streaky season, but he’s been in superb form lately. In 104 plate appearances from June 6th through July 20th, DeLauter hit four homers with 12 runs, 18 RBI, two stolen bases, a .404 OBP, .206 ISO, .419 wOBA, .358 expected wOBA (xwOBA) and 173 wRC+. The rookie outfielder also had two more hits in four plate appearances last night.
Steven Kwan is having a forgettable season, but he might be snapping out of his funk. In 26 plate appearances from July 10th through July 20th, Kwan logged four runs, three RBI, two stolen bases, a .500 OBP, .083 ISO, .458 wOBA, .403 xwOBA and 200 wRC+. He also rattled off one double, two walks, one run and one RBI in five plate appearances last night.
Jim Jarvis has hit one homer with six runs, six RBI, a .333 OBP, .167 ISO, .344 wOBA and 116 wRC+ in 52 plate appearances in his rookie season for the Braves.
As I highlighted above, Bailey Ober is markedly worse on the road than at home. One area that shows up the clearest is in the strikeout department. Ober has struck out fewer than four batters in five of his six starts at home this year.
Steven Kwan has a .278 batting average, .353 OBP, .120 ISO, .332 wOBA and 116 wRC+ in 1,111 plate appearances against righties since 2024. He has cleared this line in six of his last seven games.
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