MLB DFS picks & underdog player props: Tuesday (7/21)
FantasyPros··5 min read
MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Tuesday (7/21)
Tuesday’s MLB DFS main slate features 13 games on DraftKings and FanDuel, starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. The Underdog pick’em selections are also from those 13 games. Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Assistant Fantasy Baseball Lineup Assistant ... read more »
Tuesday’s MLB DFS main slate features 13 games on DraftKings and FanDuel, starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. The Underdog pick’em selections are also from those 13 games.
Chase Burns is cooking with gas this season. According to FanGraphs, in 18 starts spanning 102.2 innings in 2026, Burns has logged the following numbers:
11 wins
9 quality starts
2.54 ERA
3.17 xERA
3.59 xFIP
3.59 SIERA
1.11 WHIP
9 % walk rate
28.6% strikeout rate
14.1% SwStr%
28.% CSW%
113 stuff+
100 location+
114 pitching+
Burns has a decent matchup and acceptable betting info tonight. The Mariners are tied for 11th in wRC+ (105) with a 22.7% strikeout rate versus righties and 10th in wRC+ (107) with a 24.2% strikeout rate at home in 2026.
However, Seattle is 27th in wRC+ (82) with a 26.2% strikeout rate in the previous 30 days. The Reds are listed at just -105 on the Moneyline, but the game’s total is a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs.
Matthew Liberatore is a risky pitcher, but gamers should seek salary relief to use on hitters tonight in cushy matchups, and it doesn’t take much squinting to see Liberatore providing value at his salary. In his previous four starts, totaling 21.1 innings, Liberatore has tallied the following stats:
2 wins
1 quality start
4.22 ERA
3.48 xERA
4.98 xFIP
4.49 SIERA
1.22 WHIP
9.8% walk rate
22.8% strikeout rate
10.1% SwStr%
29.9% CSW%
97 stuff+
96 location+
94 pitching+
The lefty has a favorable matchup and palatable betting info. The Angels are 13th in wRC+ (98) with a 26% strikeout rate versus lefties and 30th in wRC+ (80) with a 25.9% strikeout rate at home this year.
They are also 26th in wRC+ (85) with a 26.2% strikeout rate in the previous 30 days. The Cardinals are -115 favorites, and the game’s total is nine runs.
Tatsuya Imai is tailor-made for GPPs, as he is the poster child of a boom-or-bust pitcher. Imai has starts of 0.1 innings, 0.2 innings, 1.1 innings and 3.2 innings, with the last two in the list coming in his past two starts.
However, Imai also had back-to-back six-inning gems, allowing three earned runs with 11 strikeouts on June 19th and blanking the Tigers with 10 strikeouts on June 25th. Imai also struck out nine batters across 5.2 innings on April 4th and fanned eight across five innings on June 6th.
The Marlins aren’t a great matchup. They are tied for 14th in wRC+ (103) with a 20.6% strikeout rate versus righties and eighth in wRC+ (103) with a 22.2% strikeout rate on the road this season.
Miami is an imposing third in wRC+ (119) with a 19.3% strikeout rate in the previous 30 days. Nevertheless, the Astros are -130 favorites, and the game’s total is nine runs. Imai’s ceiling is worth chasing in GPPs tonight.
Michael Lorenzen has been a punching bag this season, and he’s been especially disastrous at home. In 41.2 innings at home in 2026, Lorenzen has a 7.78 ERA, 5.04 xFIP and 2.04 WHIP.
The veteran righty has allowed a .346 wOBA to 213 right-handed batters and a .421 wOBA to 250 left-handed batters in 2026. In addition, Colorado’s bullpen is 26th in ERA (4.91) this year.
The Brewers might be a sneaky stack tonight. Zach Thornton‘s 2.60 ERA, 3.96 xERA, 3.92 xFIP and 4.08 SIERA in his first three starts in The Show don’t point to stacking against him.
However, Thornton had a 4.30 ERA, 5.82 xERA and 4.94 xFIP in nine appearances (eight starts) in Triple-A. Moreover, per Baseball Savant, Thornton allowed five homers and a .342 wOBA to 119 right-handed batters in the minors (Double-A and Triple-A) this season. Meanwhile, the Brewers’ projected lineup features eight right-handed batters or switch-hitters.
James Wood has belted 28 bombs with 93 runs, 66 RBI, a .401 on-base percentage (OBP), .282 ISO, .405 wOBA and 157 wRC+ in 474 plate appearances this season.
CJ Abrams has drilled 22 dingers with 59 runs, 72 RBI, 15 stolen bases, a .350 OBP, .245 ISO, .372 wOBA and 135 wRC+ in 414 plate appearances this year.
Kyle Karros has hit nine homers with 48 runs, 34 RBI, three stolen bases, a .355 OBP, .170 ISO, .344 wOBA and 103 wRC+ in 335 plate appearances in 2026.
Value Plays/Punts
Andrew Vaughn has hit nine homers with a .383 OBP, .180 ISO, .379 wOBA and 146 wRC+ in 361 plate appearances against southpaws since 2024.
Gary Sanchez has mashed 11 taters with a .333 OBP, .191 ISO, .332 wOBA and 112 wRC+ in 234 plate appearances against lefties since 2024.
Luis Lara has two runs, two RBI, one stolen base, a .407 OBP, .045 ISO, .341 wOBA, .368 expected wOBA (xwOBA) and 115 wRC+ in 27 plate appearances for the Brewers. He hit nine homers with 24 stolen bases, a .432 OBP, .150 ISO, .408 wOBA and 143 wRC+ in 346 plate appearances in Triple-A this season.
Kevin Gausman has cleared 5.5 strikeouts in three straight starts. However, he has a challenging matchup for strikeouts tonight. The Rays are tied for first in strikeout rate (19.2%) versus righties and third in strikeout rate (19.6%) on the road this season.
Moreover, Tampa Bay is second in strikeout rate (18.8%) in the previous 30 days. Finally, Gausman had only three strikeouts in six innings against the Rays in Tampa Bay on May 5th and five in 4.2 innings against them in Toronto on May 11th.
Matt Olson has rattled off 103 hits, including 26 home runs, 67 runs, 59 RBI, a .267 batting average, .341 OBP, .267 ISO, .372 wOBA and 135 wRC+ in 99 games and 434 plate appearances in 2026.
Olson has a desirable matchup against Walker Buehler tonight. The 31-year-old righty has allowed 52 hits, a .280 batting average, .356 OBP and .403 slugging rate to 208 left-handed batters in 2026.
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