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Major League Baseball's trade deadline is now less than two weeks away, and no player is drawing more attention than Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal.
Trade speculation surrounding Skubal has gone back and forth over the last month. Some analysts believe he is as good as gone, while others think Detroit could still hold onto the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner.
In ESPN insider Jeff Passan's latest rankings of the top trade candidates, he offered a telling update on Skubal's chances of being dealt before the deadline. Passan wrote that the Tigers are "far more likely than not" to trade Skubal over the next two weeks. He also placed the odds of a deal at 60 percent.
There had been some belief over the past couple of weeks that the Tigers might keep Skubal because of their recent hot streak. Detroit has gone 16-9 over its last 25 games. That stretch has pulled the Tigers within 6.5 games of the AL Central lead and 4.5 games of an AL Wild Card spot.
However, Passan noted that Detroit would still need to leapfrog six teams to reach the postseason.
That feels like a difficult task. When you combine those odds with the massive return Skubal would command, a trade becomes much more logical.
The 29-year-old ace is arguably the most impactful player to become available at the trade deadline in the last two decades.
Skubal would likely be in the running for a third straight Cy Young Award this season if he hadn't undergone surgery to remove bone chips from his left elbow in early May. In 14 starts, he is 6-5 with a 2.83 ERA over 82.2 innings. He has also struck out 98 batters while posting a 0.93 WHIP.
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Skubal is also a free agent after the season and is expected to land one of the largest contracts ever given to a starting pitcher. If the Tigers aren't willing to meet that price, capitalizing on his value now could make more sense than chasing an unlikely playoff berth.
Every contender will be interested in Skubal. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, and Milwaukee Brewers figure to be among the top teams pursuing one of the best pitchers of his generation.
