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Lamine Yamal is not the favorite to clinch the Ballon d’Or despite winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup with Spain.
Yamal starred in North America as Spain won its second World Cup in men’s national team history with a cagey 1-0 victory over Argentina at MetLife Stadium on Sunday. Although the 19-year-old scored just one goal across eight matches in the tournament, he was the driving force behind much of Spain’s attacking success throughout their dominant run.
Yamal entered the World Cup as a leading contender to win the Ballon d’Or, which goes to the top men’s player in world soccer over the previous season. He scored 24 goals and provided 17 assists for Spanish club FC Barcelona during the 2025-26 campaign and won the La Liga title.
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Winning a competition such as the World Cup typically boosts a player from contender to frontrunner in the Ballon d’Or race, but the latest probabilities suggest Yamal won’t be the one who wins the award.
Rather, England and Bayern Munich striker Harry Kane is the favorite, with a 40 percent chance of winning according to prediction market platform Polymarket, ahead of Yamal at 29 percent.
Kane is a worthy contender in his own right, even though England came up short in the World Cup. The 32-year-old scored a staggering 73 goals in 65 appearances for club and country this season, a resume that could well trump that of a World Cup winner.
Neither Kane nor Yamal has ever won the Ballon d’Or. Lionel Messi, who has won a record eight Ballon d’Ors, was the favorite to win it entering the World Cup final, but his chances plummeted after he and Argentina were totally shut down by a far superior Spain team.
Spain captain Rodri is third-choice on Polymarket to win the Ballon d’Or at 13 percent.
While he was voted the best player at the World Cup, Rodri missed large portions of the club season with Manchester CIty while recovering from an ACL injury he suffered in Sept. 2024, and only returned to full fitness shortly before the tournament.
His lack of game time throughout the campaign hurts his chances to be named the best player in the world.
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There have been four different Ballon d’Or winners in the past four years – Ousmane Dembele, Rodri, Messi, and Karim Benzema. If Kane or Yamal wins, it will mark the first time there have been five different winners in a five-year stretch since 2004 to 2008.
The 30-man Ballon d’Or shortlist will be announced some time in August 2025, before the winner is revealed during a ceremony set to take place on Oct. 26, 2026.
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