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Judge and Chapman lead active AL East Hall of Fame contenders

Lindy's Sports · Jul 22, 2026 20:42 · 7 min read

Judge and Chapman Lead Active AL East Hall of Fame Contenders — mlb-new-york-yankees-at-athletics

As Cooperstown honors its newest class, we examine which active AL East stars are building legitimate Hall of Fame cases.

The week in which the Hall of Fame honors and inducts its most recent electees is always one of the best weeks of the baseball year.

This Sunday’s ceremony honoring Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones and Jeff Kent will be particularly cool for me and my friend and fellow Lindy’s scribe Larry Fleisher, since this was the first election in which we participated as 10-year members of the Baseball Writers Association of America. Larry and I both voted for Beltran and Jones while Kent was elected via the 16-member Contemporary Baseball Era Committee last December.

Another fun part of this week is wondering which active players will eventually make their way to the Clark Sports Center stage…especially if you’re a weirdo like me and want to predict at least one player from each team who has a chance to make the Hall of Fame.

Some of these are real stretches, but no muscles are in danger of being strained or worse here,

That said, I’m not going to project 10-15 years out for players on teams such as the New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers, all of whom have armfuls of likely Hall of Famers. But it’s not difficult to envision some or all of Cam Schlittler, Drake Baldwin and Yoshinobu Yamamoto blazing a Cooperstown path.

Let’s get started with the American League East.

Boston Red Sox: Aroldis Chapman

Let’s lead off with a possibility that makes me uncomfortable, for reasons of varying import.

Does it really matter that I’m a small Hall guy when it comes to closers and that I believe the bar has been set going forward by Mariano Rivera? No. Does it matter that Chapman served Major League Baseball’s first domestic violence suspension in 2016? Yes. I should also note I voted this year for Jones, who pled guilty to disorderly conduct following a domestic dispute with his wife on Christmas 2012.

Any sort of uncomfortable Chapman discussion seemed to evaporate from 2020 through 2023, when he followed the pandemic-shortened campaign with the four worst years of his career (a 3.57 ERA with 62 saves and a 1.30 WHIP) while playing for four different teams.

But Chapman has been as good as ever for the Red Sox over the last season-and-a-half, during which he has a 1.45 ERA with 54 saves and a 0.88 WHIP.

He is eight saves shy of his 10th 30-save season and on pace to record a sub-3.00 ERA for the ninth time in 15 full seasons. The only pitchers with more than 30-save and sub-3.00 ERA seasons are Rivera and fellow Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman.

Chapman’s 14.5 strikeouts per nine innings are tied for the second-most all time with current Dodgers closer Edwin Diaz and just behind Houston Astros closer Josh Hader (14.6 strikeouts per nine innings).

But Chapman has thrown 853 innings, compared to 530 2/3 innings for Hader and 525 1/3 innings for Diaz. Chapman is averaging more than 2.5 more whiffs per nine innings than 2025 inductee Billy Wagner and is just 50 frames shy of matching Wagner’s career total.

Another couple seasons like the ones he’s had for the Red Sox will make for an awfully interesting and thorny discussion come the 2030s.

Baltimore Orioles: Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson

These are both long shots, though it will be absolutely hilarious if Alonso mounts a charge at 500 homers and makes himself look prescient for telling New York Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns that “…you’ll still be fiddling with your (flipping) formulas” while Alonso’s Hall of Fame credentials are being evaluated.

Alas, while Alonso isn’t nearly as one-dimensional as Stearns would like you to believe, getting to 500 homers is probably a must for the slugger, especially in an era where there are a dozen legitimate candidates to hit 500 blasts. He’s more than halfway there after seven-plus seasons that included a season shortened by the pandemic. It’s unlikely but possible.

Henderson looked like he was in the early stages of a Hall of Fame run when he posted an .856 OPS with 65 homers and 174 RBIs while compiling 14.9 WAR in his first two full seasons in 2023 and 2024, when he won the American League Rookie of the Year and finished fourth in the MVP balloting, respectively.

But like most of the Orioles’ homegrown prospects, Henderson has drastically tailed off over the last two seasons, during which he’s recorded a .749 OPS with 34 homers, 112 RBIs and 6.5 WAR.

He’s just 25, so he can turn it around. The sooner the better.

New York Yankees: Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, Max Fried

The ailments are starting to add up for Judge, but he’s already a rock-solid lock with 64.3 WAR (sixth-most in Yankees history) and three MVPs to go along with a 1.022 OPS, which is the second-highest mark of the expansion era behind only the PED-tainted Barry Bonds. Reaching 500 or 600 homers would be nice but unnecessary.

Goldschmidt is mired in a 6-for-55 slump, which is a reminder that the 38-year-old might not get the 13 homers he needs to reach 400 blasts. But with 65.3 WAR, a .879 OPS, and one MVP, he compares favorably to Hall of Famer Todd Helton (61.8 WAR and a .953 OPS playing half his games at Coors Field) and likely Hall of Famer Joey Votto (63.6 WAR, a .920 OPS, and one MVP). Goldschmidt is pretty close to a lock.

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Cole (3-5 with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 10 starts) is still rounding into form after 2025 Tommy John surgery. But with Justin Verlander retiring and Max Scherzer likely right behind, Cole is soon going to be neck-and-neck with Chris Sale in the race for best active starting pitcher. With 156 wins and 2,306 strikeouts in his age-35 season, Cole could be the last 200-game winner and might also reach 3,000 strikeouts. He is likely bound for Cooperstown even without reaching either milestone.

Nobody’s Hall of Fame case has fluctuated more than Stanton’s, who seemed well on his way when he racked up 267 homers, a .914 OPS and 35.9 WAR with the Miami Marlins through his age-27 season in 2017. But lower body and elbow injuries have haunted Stanton in nine seasons with the Yankees, during which he has 189 homers and an .816 OPS with 11.2 WAR.

His candidacy bounced back with a brilliant half-season last year (24 homers and a .944 OPS in 77 games), but he’s played just 24 games this season due to a right calf injury. With just one more full season on his deal — the lockout-threatened 2027 campaign — Stanton remains 44 homers shy of 500. He needs to get there to stay in the conversation.

Fried is 96-44 with a 3.04 ERA at age 32 and is signed through 2032, which gives him a good chance at supplanting Cole and/or Sale as the best active pitcher upon their retirements. Just as long as you know, he stays healthy…and tonight marks Fried’s first big league start after missing the last two months with an elbow injury.

Tampa Bay Rays: Craig Kimbrel, Junior Caminero

As noted with the Chapman discussion, I’m a small Hall guy when it comes to closers. Thus, I think Kimbrel (2.65 ERA with 440 saves) needs to get to 500 saves to have a real chance. But with 13.9 strikeouts per nine innings, I could also see Kimbrel — who has played for nine teams since 2020 — turning into a 2000s version of Goose Gossage, whose terrific peak eventually outshined his journeyman-like finish as a middle reliever (seven teams plus a stint in Japan from 1987 through 1994).

Caminero is just 23 years old and not even at 10.0 career WAR yet, so this is our first example of a long-term projection/hope. But Caminero is 11 homers shy of becoming just the third player with multiple 40-homer seasons prior to turning 24, along with Juan Gonzalez and Hall of Famer Eddie Mathews. He’s already very interesting. And hey, at some point, SOME Tampa Bay player has to spend his entire Hall of Fame career with the organization, right? Right?

Toronto Blue Jays: Max Scherzer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Scherzer is really scuffling in his twilight, but nothing he does on the field as he nears his 42nd birthday can dent a candidacy that includes three Cy Youngs, two no-hitters, 222 wins, and 3,500 strikeouts. One of the great pitchers of his generation is going to cruise into the Hall and give one helluva speech.

By the end of last season, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (183 homers, an .861 OPS and 25.7 WAR through his age-26 season) seemed on a path towards joining his Dad in Cooperstown.

But Vladdy Jr. has just six homers — including none at home — with a .688 OPS and 0.8 WAR this year.

Carlton Fisk and Robin Yount are amongst the Hall of Famers who overcame a rough season in their 20s. The Blue Jays don’t need Vladdy Jr. to become a Hall of Famer, but with him signed through 2039 (!!!), they need this to be a blip and not the start of a decline.

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