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Iran has vowed that “not a single drop” of gas or oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz if U.S. strikes continue in the region. The threat comes as Yemen’s Houthis declare a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia that is bringing Saudi and Gulf oil exports almost to a halt.
What the IRGC Said
In a statement, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps promised to double down on its primary leverage against the United States and disrupt the Strait of Hormuz to the extent that it will not be safe for any ships to pass.
“This passage will not be safe for the transit of petrochemical products, nor even a single drop of oil and gas,” the statement reads.
The warning, issued on Monday, suggests that Tehran - currently under immense pressure from escalating U.S. strikes - has concluded that disrupting global energy markets is still its strongest remaining source of leverage against Washington.
The statement came as U.S. forces carried out a ninth consecutive day of strikes against Iranian military command centers, air defense systems, coastal surveillance systems, and missile and drone launch facilities - among other targets.
According to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), the ongoing operation is intended to degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial vessels and civilian shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz - but as it stands, those efforts have only served to force Tehran and its proxies to double down and make oil transit in the Gulf region even more uncertain.
By threatening to prevent the movement of Gulf oil, as the regime has been doing since the beginning of the conflict, the IRGC is signaling that it will respond asymmetrically to ongoing U.S. strikes.
As it stands, Iran lacks the conventional capability to sustain a direct war against U.S. forces - but it does have asymmetric warfare options that can prevent the safe passage of ships through Hormuz, and proxies throughout the region who can disrupt shipping in other critical waterways.
Houthis Declare Naval Blockade Against Saudi Arabia
The regime in Tehran may have been weakened, but it also has the support of various proxy groups operating in the Gulf region.
Also on Monday, Yemen’s Houthi movement declared an immediate naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, opening up another major oil crisis in the Gulf.
The announcement not only puts pressure on the United States to finally secure the Strait of Hormuz and neutralize the threat from Iran - if that is even possible - but also to prevent Houthis from putting even greater pressure on Gulf energy exports that could seriously damage the global economy.
It’s an alarming announcement, because the Houthis control much of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait - one of the most important maritime chokepoints that links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.
Blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would create even more global fuel uncertainty, with the waterway overseeing roughly 12% of global trade.
Even without Hormuz disruption, blocking the waterway would facilitate a crisis - but it is particularly worrisome given the importance of securing Saudi oil exports through alternative routes while Hormuz remains uncertain.
"The question now is whether they will begin targeting vessels heading to Saudi ports.
At this stage, there’s no clear answer," Mohammed Albasha, founder of the Washington-based risk advisory firm Basha Report, said about the news. "Even if no ships are attacked, the announcement alone is likely to disrupt shipping and create uncertainty for Saudi ports. Whether the Houthis move from threats to direct action remains the critical issue.”
Houthis Can Cause Disruption
Although the Houthis possess a limited naval force, they have repeatedly demonstrated that it is possible to threaten international shipping even without it.
Since late 2023, Houthis have used a combination of anti-ship ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, drone boats and one-way attack drones to attack commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
The attacks have forced shipping companies to repeatedly reroute around southern Africa, driving up insurance premiums and increasing transit times.
It is, in effect, the same problem the world is watching play out in the Strait of Hormuz, but on a somewhat more limited scale.
Bad News for Saudi Arabia and the U.S.
The threat is particularly serious for Saudi Arabia because the kingdom has leaned heavily on Red Sea export routes and pipelines that terminate on its western coast as a way of reducing dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.
If commercial shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb also comes under sustained attack, Riyadh could find that its primary alternative route for exporting crude oil has become just as vulnerable.
That scenario would leave Gulf energy exports exposed from both ends, granting Iran even more leverage over Washington as the world approaches a major global oil supply crisis.
Iran threatening Hormuz while the Houthis block the Red Sea could be exactly what it takes for Washington to make concessions to Iran, viewing it as a more favorable option than a prolonged conflict that risks both chokepoints being blocked indefinitely.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
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