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In depth: New UNF poll finds tighter Florida races, affordability concerns and AI divide

104.5 WOKV Jacksonville's News & Talk · Jul 21, 2026 19:00 · 4 min read

A new statewide poll from the University of North Florida suggests Florida’s political landscape may be more competitive than it has been in recent election cycles.

Dr. Sean Freeder, director of UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab, joined In Depth with Kristine Bellino to discuss the latest survey, which examined the governor’s race, the U.S. Senate race, affordability, artificial intelligence, data centers and several other issues making headlines.

Florida races appear more competitive

Freeder said one of the biggest takeaways from the poll is that statewide races are shaping up to be closer than they were just a few years ago.

The survey found Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds leading by about five points, while U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody held an advantage of between eight and 10 points, depending on her opponent.

While those aren’t razor-thin margins, Freeder said they’re much smaller than the double-digit victories Florida has seen in recent statewide elections.

“It’s nice to see a bit of a return to competitive politics,” he said.

Florida politicians outperform national Republicans

The poll also looked at approval ratings for several political leaders.

Freeder said President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance both had slightly negative favorability ratings among Florida voters.

Meanwhile, Gov. Ron DeSantis and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio both received positive approval ratings, suggesting Florida voters currently view their state leaders more favorably than national Republican figures.

Affordability remains the top concern

Affordability continues to be the issue weighing most heavily on Floridians.

Rather than one concern standing out above the rest, Freeder said voters were almost evenly split between inflation, housing costs, property taxes and property insurance. Low wages ranked slightly lower than the other issues.

The poll also found differences based on political affiliation.

Democrats were more likely to cite inflation, housing costs and wages as their biggest concerns, while Republicans focused more on property taxes and homeowners insurance.

Freeder said those differences likely reflect both political viewpoints and demographics, noting Republicans tend to be older and more likely to own homes.

Property tax amendment support depends on wording

One of the survey’s most surprising findings involved Florida’s proposed property tax amendment.

Researchers asked voters about the amendment using two different versions of ballot language.

When voters were simply told the amendment would dedicate property tax revenue to local services like law enforcement, fire departments and libraries, about 61% supported it just enough to clear the 60% threshold needed for constitutional amendments to pass.

But when the ballot language also mentioned the estimated $12 billion impact on local budgets over two years, support dropped to 45%.

Freeder said the pending lawsuit over how the amendment will appear on the ballot could have a major impact on whether it passes.

Poll explores Reflecting Pool debate

The survey also asked Floridians about competing explanations for problems at the Reflecting Pool in Washington, D.C.

Freeder said researchers wanted to examine an issue that hadn’t been widely polled.

Respondents were asked whether they believed the problems were caused by vandalism, a poor renovation or natural causes like algae growth.

Most respondents favored explanations involving construction problems or natural causes rather than vandalism.

Even among Republicans, vandalism was the leading explanation for only about 45% of those surveyed.

Freeder said the results suggest there may be limits to how persuasive political messaging can be, even among a candidate’s own supporters.

How the polling is conducted

Freeder also explained how the Public Opinion Research Lab conducts its surveys.

The lab uses a combination of phone calls, text messages and emails to reach randomly selected registered Florida voters.

He said relying on multiple contact methods has become necessary as fewer people answer calls from unfamiliar numbers.

The lab also uses UNF student callers, something Freeder said remains a point of pride for the university.

Researchers use Florida’s voter registration database, which includes contact information and party registration, to ensure the sample reflects likely voters across the state.

Floridians split on AI, united against data centers

The poll also examined attitudes toward artificial intelligence and the data centers that support it.

Freeder said opinions on AI itself are almost evenly divided, with about half of Floridians viewing the technology positively and the other half expressing concerns.

Younger adults, Democrats and women were more likely to have negative views of AI.

Data centers, however, received little support.

Freeder said no demographic group surveyed, regardless of age, gender, race or political affiliation, favored building a data center in their own community.

He said the findings suggest AI could become a classic “not in my backyard” issue, with many people supporting the technology while opposing the infrastructure needed to make it work.

More polling coming this fall

Freeder said the Public Opinion Research Lab plans to release another statewide poll in October.

That survey is expected to focus heavily on the upcoming elections while revisiting issues like the property tax amendment and artificial intelligence to see how public opinion changes over time.

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