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Gov. Gavin Newsom is poised to make a run as a front-running candidate in the Democratic primary for the White House in 2028 — but new polling suggests another California Democrat is the more popular choice to be US president.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris has a significant advantage over Newsom and the rest of the field by comfortable margins, in the most recent 14 major polls, suggesting she has the early advantage in a still-fluid race.
A poll by Echelon Insights from July 9 to 13 shows Harris with a 7 percentage point lead ahead of Newsom. A Quantus Insights poll from July 3 to 7 has Harris 18 points ahead, with 35% of the vote share.
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Harris’ streak of being in the top spot stretches all the way back to late May.
The last poll that didn’t show Harris leading was an Emerson College survey conducted May 24–25, which put former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg ahead with a 2-point lead over Newsom, who drew 16%, while Harris trailed at 10%.
Since then, Newsom has consistently ranked second behind Harris, polling between 15% and 20%. While early presidential polls often reflect name recognition more than eventual outcomes, they can shape perceptions of a candidate’s viability.
Harris has hinted at a White House repeat after losing the presidential election to Donald Trump in 2024. She has made moves that could signal shoring up support, such as reaching out to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, an important figure in the far-left base where she will need support.
Newsom has positioned himself as someone who is repeatedly on the offensive against President Donald Trump.
Some of Newsom’s recent actions — such as his embrace of a national billionaire tax while simultaneously opposing a statewide one — could be seen as an attempt by Newsom to retain attraction from the far-left base and cut into Harris’ lead.
“This whole jiu-jitsu he has to do to oppose the [billionaire] tax in his state and then support it federally, it doesn’t sound as authentic as others might sound on the soapbox at the Iowa State Fair,” GOP strategist Rob Stutzman told CalMatters.
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