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Tropical Storm Bertha is the latest storm expected to develop in the Gulf Coast on Monday, threatening more wet weather in Florida, Louisiana and Texas. But the latest forecast suggests Houston will likely be spared from significant rainfall and flooding upon Bertha's arrival.
Tropical Depression 2 began forming in the eastern Gulf on Sunday, and it could become Tropical Storm Bertha as it moves west. But that storm is "going to run its course before getting to Texas," with only 5 to 10 percent of the storm expected to survive its trek across Louisiana and into Texas, per Space City Weather's Matt Lanza.
"As of today, impacts are expected to be minimal," Lanza wrote Monday morning. "Wind impacts at this point would be tropical depression or less. ... And rainfall impacts would also be minimal, with just a slightly increased chance of showers on Thursday or Friday perhaps."
The National Weather Service (NWS) offered a less certain forecast in its update Monday, though it didn't sound a major alarm regarding Tropical Storm Bertha.
"Tropical Depression Two is currently drifting north-northwestward in the eastern Gulf, and is expected to become a tropical storm in the northeastern Gulf later today. Highly uncertain track/intensity forecast beyond Thursday," the NWS wrote. "Tropical Storm force winds could arrive in our coastal waters as early as Wednesday night with increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms Thursday-Friday across SE Texas.
"Confidence on expected impacts and timing will increase over the next couple of days as additional data become available."
It's unclear whether significant rainfall will hit Houston and Southeast Texas late this week. In the interim, Lanza expects the hottest week of 2026 ahead for Houston in the coming days. 100-degree days are possible Tuesday and Wednesday, though Houston's humidity could dip lower than usual as Tropical Depression 2 brings dry air from the northeast toward Houston.
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