Could the unorthodox buildup of Remco Evenepoel see him light up the final week of the Tour de France?
That seems a distinct possibility following his breakthrough mountain stage win on Sunday.
The Belgian scooped the first road race stage win of his Tour career on stage 15, outsprinting Tadej Pogačar and Isaac del Toro to Plateau de Solaison.
It was easily the best performance of his campaign and suggests he is getting stronger just as other riders start to run out of gas.
And that’s why his Tour buildup may be very relevant.
Evenepoel broke convention by taking an unprecedented two months out of competition prior to the race.
He rode Liège-Bastogne-Liège, taking third behind Pogačar and Paul Seixas, and then stopped. No one day competitions. No stage races.
Instead, ten weeks of focused training, including altitude camps.
Ten weeks working with specialists, including those who helped him trim almost four kilos off his previous weight.
And while his form was a little up and down at times during this year’s Tour, he was exactly where he needed to be on Sunday, being the only one to hold Pogačar and Del Toro when the other GC riders were blown away.
Winning the stage was the icing on the cake, and saw him head into Monday’s rest day in the best possible frame of mind.
With the TT, his specialist discipline, looming next, it’s entirely possible he could have two consecutive stage wins by Tuesday evening.
That will hand him a momentum heading into the final mountain stages. If he does indeed have better reserves than his rivals as a result of his peculiar Tour buildup, he could wreak havoc.
‘Very happy how everything has been going’
For now, six days before the end of the Tour, Evenepoel doesn’t want to make any bold predictions. Asked if his ten week break from racing will be the key to a huge final week, he prefers a wait-and-see approach.
He clearly hopes it will be a storming finale to his Tour, but doesn’t want to get ahead of himself just yet.
“That’s a tricky question to answer,” he said, when asked about that point by Velo.
“But everybody prepares himself the way they think is best for them, together with the team.
“For me, I knew that I had to take a break of competition and make sure I arrive really fresh in in the Tour. For the moment, it’s turning out pretty well, but there’s still a big week ahead of us. Probably if things would go wrong, then everybody is going to doubt my preparation again. It makes no sense to say now that it was the best preparation as possible if maybe next week it seems not to be.
“But for the moment, I feel very happy with how everything has been going during the Tour. Also, preparation was good. For the moment, I’m happy with how it has been developing.”
There is of course an element of not wanting to tempt fate. Most pro cyclists tend to be publicly hopeful rather than assertive, implying optimism rather than making bold declarations about their chances.
Evenepoel is the same.
“The Tour is not finished yet. Still a big week ahead of us with, in my opinion, three very important stages with tomorrow and then Friday and Saturday,” he said.
“Day by day, and then we’ll see on Saturday evening and Sunday evening where I’ll be.
“Then we can make final decisions and final comments on how the preparation has been and what the effect was for me.”
TT favorite, but can he gain much time?
Evenepoel first rode the Tour de France two years ago. He was 24 at the time and went into the race as one of the most exciting young talents in the sport. He had won the 2022 Vuelta a España by then, world championship road race and time trial titles, plus two editions of Liège-Bastogne-Liège and three of the Clasica San Sebastian.
He was still learning but finished a very credible third, 9:18 behind Pogačar and just 3:01 behind two-time winner Jonas Vingegaard.
Evenepoel also won the stage 7 time trial, which was almost exactly the same distance as what the riders will face Tuesday.
Two years later he is very much aiming for another TT win. He’s a three times world champion in that discipline plus the Olympic title holder, and he’s undoubtedly the best in the sport.
He rode the route on Monday, getting familiar with it, and gives it a thumbs up.
“It’s a nice course,” he told media at the online rest day press conference Monday afternoon. “I think the descent is a bit tricky for a time trial. It’s very fast and very technical, a bit dangerous too, but that’s the same for everyone.
“You need to give your all from the start and finish strong as well because the finale isn’t easy.
“I’m going to give my best and try to win the stage.”
If he does, he will put more time into those behind him in the GC, and inch closer to Pogačar. How much could he gain on the others?
“For each time trial, I don’t really think about the gaps,” he answered. “Before the start, I focus on trying to win the stage. Then later I look at the results and we can have discussions, debriefs to check the gaps.
“For now, I’m going to focus one hundred percent on trying to win. Like I said, I’ll see the gaps in the evening after the stage.”
Are internal team rivalries settled?
If all goes to plan, Evenepoel will emerge from the TT closer to Pogačar, and further ahead of all of his rivals.
He’s currently five minutes off the yellow jersey, 58 seconds ahead of Del Toro, 1:23 in front of Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM) and 1:48 up on his own teammate Florian Lipowitz.
Time gains on them would set him up well for the return to the mountains on Thursday, with a summit finish at Orcières-Merlette to be followed by battles to Alpe d’Huez Friday and Saturday.
He’ll need strong support from his Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe team. Things were a little disjointed earlier in the Tour with Evenepoel suggesting last year’s podium finisher Lipowitz wasn’t collaborating but, as of Monday’s rest day, the German appeared prepared to commit if requested to do so.
“I knew and also the whole team knew that he is in really good shape,” he said of Evenepoel’s victory on Sunday. “So there was I think no doubts. That was the best way to get into the second rest day and, for sure, I think we will have a chat later this evening and then we will plan the upcoming week.”
So what does that mean?
“I already said yesterday the main goal is to have someone on the podium in Paris. That will be the main goal. I think so far, Remco, especially with tomorrow, he will have the best chances for that.”
So, straight question. If he is required to help Evenepoel, will he do it?
“Yeah, of course,” he said.
Curiously, the Belgian name-checked his teammate when asked to define who his competitors are.
“There are still quite a few. I think Isaac, Paul, even my teammate Florian,” he said. “He’s not that far from the podium either. So you really have to pay attention to everyone who’s still pretty close, let’s say.
“I shouldn’t look too far ahead. I think I need to focus on keeping my position, my second place. And I need to do everything for that. I’m going to focus 100% on myself and try to make this third week the best of my life.”
If he does, and if his unorthodox buildup to the Tour does give him the kind of reserves that others may be lacking, a standout third week could lead to a truly spectacular conclusion to his race.
And, in terms of drama, to the Tour itself.