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Tropical Depression 2 strengthened into Tropical Storm Bertha on Monday evening, setting off precautions across the Gulf Coast for heavy rain, high winds, and rough seas throughout the week.
As of early Tuesday morning, thunderstorms linked to Bertha stretched across several hundred miles over the northeastern Gulf. Weather conditions along the coast, which remained mostly sunny through Monday, are expected to decline as the storm progresses westward.
Meteorologists report that Bertha’s trajectory will depend on how quickly it organizes over open water.
“How much the storm organizes over the northern Gulf this week will determine both its track and where the heaviest rainfall falls,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Breanna Grill.
Forecasts outline two potential paths for the storm. In a scenario where Bertha tracks closer to the shore, overall wind strength would remain lower, but rainfall would increase significantly along the central Gulf Coast.
“A ‘hug-the-coast’ scenario would keep overall winds weaker,” said Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “However, heavy to flooding rainfall would increase along the central Gulf Coast before spreading inland as the storm loses wind intensity.”
Under that inland track, rainfall totals between 1 and 4 inches are expected across a broad swath, with pockets of 4 to 8 inches and isolated maximum totals reaching up to 15 inches. Wind gusts along the Interstate 10 corridor could reach between 40 and 60 mph, with localized gusts potentially hitting 75 mph. Storm surge for this path is estimated between 1 and 3 feet.
Alternatively, if Bertha tracks farther south over warmer Gulf waters, it could gain more strength before making landfall.
“That would likely allow the storm to strengthen much more because its center would remain over the warm waters of the open Gulf for a longer period,” DaSilva said. “Strengthening to perhaps a high-end tropical storm or hurricane would be possible in this case.”
A southern track would shift the heaviest impacts farther west toward Texas, potentially steering torrential rain away from Louisiana while threatening areas like the Texas Hill Country.
“The Texas Hill Country may be especially vulnerable to downpours due to saturated ground and infrastructure damaged by the catastrophic flooding last week,” Grill said.
Regardless of the final track, hazardous marine conditions are expected across the Gulf. Officials warn of rough seas, building surf, an elevated risk of rip currents, and potential overwash on low-lying coastal roads. Severe thunderstorms from the system may also produce isolated tornadoes and waterspouts.
Offshore oil platforms currently face a minimal threat from the system, though forecasters continue to monitor its progress.
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