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Will Clemson football bounce back after a dreadful 7-6 finish a year ago, and what might the Tigers' final regular season record be in 2026?
With roughly a month and a half remaining until Week 1, ESPN this week unveiled its annual matchup predictor for the 2026 college football season, including projected winning percentages for every Clemson game.
ESPN Analytics' matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college football power index and other variables, forecasts the Tigers to finish 10-2. That includes a 7-1 mark in ACC play. Clemson's odds of winning its theoretical 10 games is listed at 52.6% or higher.
Using ESPN's math, Clemson is expected to drop two of its first five games: to the LSU Tigers and Miami Hurricanes. Both LSU and Miami are ranked in the top 10 in ESPN's initial FPI, and the Bayou Bengals and Canes are each popular College Football Playoff picks.
But Clemson is favored to win its final seven games against Charleston Southern, the Virginia Tech Hokies, Florida State Seminoles, Syracuse Orange, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Duke Blue Devils and South Carolina Gamecocks.
Clemson is also favored to win its ACC opener against Bill Belichick's North Carolina Tar Heels on Sept. 19 at Memorial Stadium, and its first ACC road trip to California six days later for a 2-0 start in conference play.
The Tigers' highest win percentage, unsurprisingly, is their Week 7 game against Charleston Southern from the Football Championship Subdivision. Clemson is given a 99% chance of beating the Buccaneers. The second-highest win percentage is also no surprise: it comes against the Tigers' lone Group of Six opponent, Georgia Southern in Week 2 (95.2%).
While ESPN Analytics favors Clemson to beat Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee on Oct. 31, the Tigers' odds of winning are just 52.6%. It's the lowest win percentage among games Clemson is favored in by matchup predictor.
And of the two games ESPN Analytics forecasts Clemson to lose, the Tigers' lowest win percentage is against LSU in the season opener in Baton Rouge (24.7%).
Clemson football game by game predictions for 2026 season
Here are the full regular season predictions and win percentages from ESPN's matchup predictor.
- Week 1: Clemson (24.7%) at LSU (75.3%)
- Week 2: Clemson (95.2%) vs. Georgia Southern (4.8%)
- Week 3: Clemson (78.7%) vs. North Carolina (21.3%)
- Week 4: Clemson (73.7%) at California (26.3%)
- Week 5: Clemson (32.9%) vs. Miami (67.1%)
- Week 6: IDLE
- Week 7: Clemson (99%) vs. Charleston Southern (1%)
- Week 8: Clemson (73.1%) vs. Virginia Tech (26.9%)
- Week 9: Clemson (52.6%) at Florida State (47.4%)
- Week 10: Clemson (80.9%) at Syracuse (19.1%)
- Week 11: Clemson (79.9%) vs. Georgia Tech (20.1%)
- Week 12: Clemson (72.5%) at Duke (27.5%)
- Week 13: Clemson (61.1%) vs. South Carolina (38.9%)
Clemson football's FPI rating entering 2026
The Tigers are 19th in ESPN's initial FPI ratings. Clemson has a 13.4 overall rating, which is one spot below the Florida Gators (13.6) and one spot ahead of the BYU Cougars (13.1). The Tigers trail only Miami (21.8) among ACC teams in the FPI.
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This article originally appeared on Clemson Wire: ESPN predicts the winner of every Clemson football game in 2026
