CLEMSON, SOUTH CAROLINA - NOVEMBER 08: Ousmane Kromah #32 of the Florida State Seminoles escapes a tackle by Khalil Barnes #7 of the Clemson Tigers during the first half of a football game at Memorial Stadium on November 08, 2025 in Clemson, South Carolina. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images)
ESPN's matchup predictor is not expecting FSU to have a good 2026 season. Here is their record prediction for the Seminoles.
The Florida State Seminoles are just over a month away from welcoming the New Mexico State Aggies to Doak Campbell Stadium for their first game of the 2026 season. It is a critical year for FSU, which has gone 7-17 over the past two seasons, falling well short of its standards.
Head coach Mike Norvell is back, but enters the season on the hot seat and will be looking to cool it off with a strong start. He will have a chance to pick up two quality wins early, with FSU playing the SMU Mustangs and Alabama Crimson Tide in the first three weeks of the season.
The Seminoles are set to play one of the toughest schedules in the ACC, giving them a chance to make a statement or suffer another tough season. Here are ESPN's initial predictions for FSU's 2026 season. ESPN runs 20,000 simulations for each game, and the chances are updated after each week.
Aug. 29: vs New Mexico State Aggies
Nov 16, 2024; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies defensive lineman Rylan Kennedy (15) runs around the edge against the New Mexico State Aggies during the first half at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images
Projected Winner: FSU
FSU's Win Probability: 97.1%
Running Record: 1-0
Sept. 7: vs SMU Mustangs
Nov 1, 2025; Dallas, Texas, USA; SMU Mustangs running back T.J. Harden (27) scores the game winning touchdown as quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) celebrates during the overtime period against the Miami Hurricanes at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
Projected Winner: SMU
FSU's Win Probability: 48.5%
Running Record: 1-1
Sept. 19: at Alabama Crimson Tide
TALLAHASSEE, FLORIDA - AUGUST 30: Ashlynd Barker #27 of the Florida State Seminoles breaks up a pass intended for Rico Scott #11 of the Alabama Crimson Tide during the third quarter of a football game at Doak Campbell Stadium on August 30, 2025 in Tallahassee, Florida. (Photo by Butch Dill/Getty Images)
Projected Winner: Alabama
FSU's Win Probability: 18.4%
Running Record: 1-2
Sept. 26: vs Central Arkansas Bears
Aug 28, 2025; Columbia, Missouri, USA; A general view of a Central Arkansas Bears helmet against the Missouri Tigers during the second half of the game at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
Projected Winner: FSU
FSU's Win Probability: 98.6%
Running Record: 2-2
Oct. 3: vs Virginia Cavaliers
Cam Ross #6 of the Virginia Cavaliers runs the ball during the second half of the 2025 ACC Football Championship against the Duke Blue Devils at Bank of America Stadium on December 06, 2025 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images)
Projected Winner: FSU
FSU's Win Probability: 61.8%
Running Record: 3-2
Oct. 9: at Louisville Cardinals
Oct 4, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) looks to pass against the Louisville Cardinals during the second half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Virginia defeated Louisville 30-27. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images
Projected Winner: Louisville
FSU's Win Probability: 42.3%
Running Record: 3-3
Oct. 17: at Miami Hurricanes
Jan 19, 2026; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Hurricanes wide receiver Malachi Toney (10) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Indiana Hoosiers during the College Football Playoff National Championship game at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Projected Winner: Miami
FSU's Win Probability: 12.3%
Running Record: 3-4
Oct. 31: vs Clemson Tigers
CLEMSON, SOUTH CAROLINA - SEPTEMBER 28: Ronan Hanafin #16 of the Clemson Tigers enters the field before the first half of a football game against the Stanford Cardinal at Memorial Stadium on September 28, 2024 in Clemson, South Carolina. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images)
Projected Winner: Clemson
FSU's Win Probability: 47.4%
Running Record: 3-5
Nov. 7: at Boston College Eagles
Aug 30, 2025; Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA; Boston College Eagles quarterback Dylan Lonergan (9) scrambles by Fordham Rams linebacker Jaylen Dawson (32) on a broken play during the second half at Alumni Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images
Projected Winner: FSU
FSU's Win Probability: 75.2%
Running Record: 4-5
Nov. 13: at Pittsburgh Panthers
Pittsburgh Panthers quarterback Mason Heintschel (6) hands the ball off to running back Desmond Reid (0) during the first half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA on November 15, 2025.
Projected Winner: Pittsburgh
FSU's Win Probability: 46.8%
Running Record: 4-6
Nov. 21: vs NC State Wolfpack
Nov 15, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; NC State Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey (11) hands off the football to running back Hollywood Smothers (3) during the first quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Projected Winner: FSU
FSU's Win Probability: 72.7%
Running Record: 5-6
Nov. 27: vs Florida Gators
GAINESVILLE, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 29: Jadan Baugh #13 of the Florida Gators runs with the ball against Shamar Arnoux #15 of the Florida State Seminoles during the second half of a game at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on November 29, 2025 in Gainesville, Florida. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)
Projected Winner: Florida
FSU's Win Probability: 42.9%
Running Record: 5-7
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