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ESPN FPI (Football Power Index) has predicted the SEC teams with the highest chances to reach the College Football Playoff for the 2026-27 season. The FPI is a rating system designed to measure team strength and forecast future performance.
In 2025, Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma reached the College Football Playoff. Of those five teams, three have an FPI of 20 or more.
But which SEC teams have the best chance to reach the playoffs? Here’s a look at where each program stands via ESPN FPI.
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1. Texas Longhorns (26.9 FPI, Playoff chances: 69.9 percent)
Texas missed the College Football Playoff last year, but the program should be in a good position to make a run this fall. With Arch Manning returning as the starting QB, the Longhorns enter the season as one of the favorites to win it all.
Last year, Texas went 10-3 with conference losses to Florida and Georgia. After a slow start, Manning finished the year with 3,163 passing yards, 399 rushing yards, and 36 total TDs.
2. Georgia Bulldogs (24.8 FPI, Playoff chances: 63.7 percent)
The Bulldogs have been one of the most consistent teams in college football since 2021. In the last five seasons, Georgia has reached the CFP four times and have won two national titles.
Like Texas, Georgia has a talented QB returning this fall. Gunner Stockton threw for 2,894 yards, ran for 462 yards, and scored 34 total touchdowns.
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (20.1 FPI Playoff chances: 41.3 percent)
Alabama does not have Nick Saban as the head coach, but Kalen DeBoer continues to have the team in the mix for a title. Last year, the Crimson Tide reached the SEC Championship game and made it to the quarterfinals of the CFP.
The biggest question for Alabama this fall is who will start at quarterback? Keelon Russell and Austin Mack have been battling for the starting job all offseason.
4. LSU Tigers (20 FPI, Playoff chances: 39.7 percent)
With Lane Kiffin hired as the new head coach, LSU has high expectations for the football program this season. Kiffin joins the Tigers after leading Ole Miss to a playoff appearance last year.
One of the players to watch is QB Sam Leavitt. He spent the last two seasons at Arizona State and was named the Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year in 2024.
5. Texas A&M Aggies (20 FPI, Playoff chances: 39.1 percent)
Texas A&M reached the CFP last year after finishing 11-1 during the regular season. The team lost to Miami in the first round, and Miami went on to reach the championship game.
This fall, the Aggies look to prove that last year was not a fluke. For that to happen, QB Marcel Reed will need to take a big step in his progression.
6. Oklahoma Sooners (17.8 FPI, Playoff chances: 28.2)
Oklahoma reached last year’s CFP after finishing 10-2 in the regular season. One of the biggest wins the team had was at Alabama, but the Crimson Tide took down the Sooners in the playoffs.
If Oklahoma wants to make another run at the CFP, QB John Mateer will need to play at a high level. He should be 100 percent healthy, which wasn’t the case when he underwent thumb surgery in September.
7. Ole Miss Rebels (16 FPI, Playoff chances: 22.8 percent)
It’s interesting to see Ole Miss in this spot considering what it did last year. After clinching a playoff spot, the Rebels defeated Tulane and Georgia to reach the semifinals.
Yes, Lane Kiffin is no longer there, but Ole Miss brings back QB Trinidad Chambliss and RB Kewan Lacy. Chambliss threw for nearly 4,000 yards last year, and Lacy rushed for nearly 1,600 yards.
8. Tennessee Volunteers (15.1 FPI, Playoff chances: 20.5 percent)
Tennessee looks to bounce back after an 8-5 season in 2025. And of the five losses the Vols had, three were at home.
For the 2026 season, Tennessee will have a new quarterback. During the offseason, George MacIntyre and Ryan Staub have been battling for the starting job.
9. Florida Gators (13.6 FPI, Playoff chances: 15.2 percent)
After finishing the 2025 season with a 4-8 record, Florida needed to make big changes. The team hired Jon Sumrall as the new head coach after four seasons with Billy Napier.
Like Tennessee, Florida will have a new quarterback. Aaron Philo will likely win the starting job since he worked with new offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner at Georgia Tech last year.
10. Missouri Tigers (12.2 FPI, Playoff chances: 12.1 percent)
Missouri has been a solid SEC program over the last few seasons, but can it become a top team in the conference? Last year, the Tigers finished 8-5 and 4-4 in SEC play.
If Missouri makes a run in 2026, it will likely be because of RB Ahmad Hardy. Last season, Hardy rushed for 1,649 yards and 16 touchdowns.
ESPN FPI predicts SEC teams’ playoff chances 11-16
11. Auburn Tigers (12 FPI, Playoff chances: 12 percent)12. South Carolina Gamecocks (11.7 FPI, Playoff chances: 10.7 percent)13. Vanderbilt Commodores (9 FPI, Playoff chances: 6.8 percent)14. Kentucky Wildcats (5.4 FPI, Playoff chances: 2.1 percent)15. Arkansas Razorbacks (4.4 FPI, Playoff chances: 1.7 percent)16. Mississippi State Bulldogs (4.1 FPI, Playoff chances: 1.7 percent)
