Byron Donalds leads Florida GOP primary survey as high undecided share leaves opening

A statewide survey of 500 likely Republican primary voters in Florida shows U.S. Representative Byron Donalds leading the gubernatorial primary field with 43% support.

James Fishback placed second in the survey at 12%, followed closely by Jay Collins at 11% and Paul Renner at 2%. Undecided voters make up 31% of the electorate, while the combination of candidates trailing Donalds and undecided voters totals 57%.

The Cygnal poll was conducted July 12–13, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points.

Donalds’ support includes 29% who say they are “definitely” backing him, alongside 14% who say they “probably” support him. None of the other candidates registered double-digit support in the “definite” category.

Familiarity among voters tracks closely with candidate standings. Incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis, who is term-limited, holds a 97% name recognition rate and a net favorability rating of +67. Donalds has a 75% name recognition level and a +33 net favorability score. Collins has 35% name recognition (+15 net favorability), Fishback stands at 31% (+7 net favorability), and Renner recorded 17% name recognition (+5 net favorability).

Unfamiliarity remains a significant factor for the challengers: 65% of surveyed voters reported having no opinion of or having never heard of Collins, 69% said the same for Fishback, and 83% reported being unfamiliar with Renner. Among voters who recognize Collins and Fishback, favorable ratings exceed unfavorable ratings, with Collins testing at 25% favorable to 10% unfavorable and Fishback at 19% favorable to 12% unfavorable.

Demographic breakdowns highlight differing bases of support across the primary field:

・Age: Donalds leads with 50% support among voters aged 65 and older, compared to 38% among voters under 65. Fishback registered 21% support among voters under 65 and 2% among voters 65 and older.

・Gender and Age Blends: Fishback’s support peaks among men under 65 at 26%, while capturing 15% among women under 65, 3% among men 65 and older, and 0% among women 65 and older. Donalds leads among female voters overall with 45%, reaching 53% among women 65 and older.

・Ideology: Among voters identifying as “Very Conservative,” Donalds leads with 50%. Among “Extremely Conservative” voters, Donalds received 41%, Fishback 19%, and Collins 18%. Moderate and liberal primary voters remain largely uncommitted, with 56% undecided and 24% supporting Donalds.

・Geography: Donalds leads in the Orlando market at 50% (where 20% remain undecided), urban areas at 55%, and South Florida at 49%. In the Tampa market, Donalds polled at 33%, while Collins recorded his highest regional metric at 18%.

・Voter History: Donalds leads among voters who voted in 4 of the last 4 primaries at 48%, compared to 27% among voters who voted in 0 of 4. Fishback polled at 26% among 0-of-4 primary voters and 7% among 4-of-4 primary voters.

・Education and Subgroups: Donalds leads with 47% among college graduates and 41% among non-graduates. Fishback recorded 21% support among non-college men. In smaller directional sub-samples, Fishback drew 28% among Hispanic voters, and Collins polled at 16% in rural areas.

The 31% of undecided voters in the survey skew female (57%), lean more moderate than the broader primary electorate, and are concentrated in North Florida (38% undecided) and Tampa (33% undecided).

When asked about top issue concerns, inflation was selected as the top priority by 22% of all voters surveyed. Among inflation-focused voters, Donalds leads with 40%, while 36% remain undecided. Voters identifying property insurance as their primary issue were the most unsettled group, with 54% reporting they are undecided.

Across specific issues, Donalds registered his highest support among voters prioritizing progressive threats (62%), election integrity (60%), and immigration (46%). Fishback led among voters focused on data centers (50%) and polled at 24% among jobs-focused voters, while Collins reached 24% among voters prioritizing crime.

The survey’s audience segmentation categorized the primary electorate into three groups: Establishment Loyalists (54%), who favor Donalds and consume mostly cable news; Disengaged Moderates (31%), who represent the largest share of undecideds, prioritize pocketbook issues, and rely primarily on traditional television; and Young Populists (15%), who back Fishback, rely heavily on social media, and exhibit lower primary voting history.

READ: Byron Donalds Campaign Memo Shows 43-Point Lead One Month Ahead Of Florida GOP Primary

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Byron Donalds Leads Florida GOP Primary Survey As High Undecided Share Leaves Opening